tonne-kilometre compared with a medium freight

truck (IEA, 2018a).14 In

2017, the

tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions (i.e. those associated with diesel combustion) from rail in India

accounted for approximately 7 Mt CO2-eq. Additional well-to-tank CO2 emissions (i.e. those

associated with upstream power generation and

oil recovery) accounted

for about

22 Mt CO2-eq, a total of about 29 Mt CO2-eq.15

In India, local air pollution is a major issue. According to the World Health Organization, in 2016

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ten Indian cities were among the twenty most polluted cities in the world (WHO, 2018). Sources

of air pollutant emissions in India are varied and transport is not always the major contributor.

Indeed, at the national level, the contribution of transport to the total emissions of fine

particulate matter (PM2.5) is limited to 4% (IEA, 2018c), though in Delhi the share is closer to

about 9% (IIASA, 2018). With increasing levels of motorisation, road transport’s contribution to

air pollution is expected to increase. The progressive tightening of vehicle emission standards in

India is an important means of tracking the increasingly life-threatening levels of local air

pollution, as are the Environmental Protection Amendment Rules for the power sector.16 Thanks

to the lower emissions intensity of rail, relative to road, and its high rate of rail electrification,

rail-based transport in India offers an important way to mitigate local air pollution. In 2015, rail

in India avoided the emission of 60 kilotonnes (kt) of fine particulate matter (PM2.5).17

Outlook for rail to 2050

As in other countries, there is no certainty as to the long-term outlook for rail in India. Given the

large investment required, an increased role for rail will depend on government resolution and

intervention. As outlined, rail infrastructure development has not kept pace with the demand

for passenger travel and freight activity, leading to infrastructure bottlenecks. Safety is a vital

and pressing consideration (Box 4.2). And the competitive pressures from other modes of

transport means that rail will need to continue to invest and innovate to maintain and enhance

its role as the lifeline of the nation.

In the following sections, we explore the future of rail in India in two scenarios. The Base

Scenario projects developments solely on the basis of existing policy announcements and the

announced targets of the Indian government, analysing their implications for rail. In the High

Rail Scenario, opportunities are seized to boost the role of rail in India. The challenges and

potential benefits are examined. Both scenarios are positioned in the context of wider

transport, economic and social policies in India.18

14 These results are obtained by comparing the WTW GHG intensity of rail (averaging across metro and conventional rail)

with that of small and medium-size cars in India in 2017. The carbon intensity of rail in India (considering the Indian-specific

load factor of 1 511 passenger-kilometres per train-kilometre for intercity rail and of 262 passenger-kilometres per

train-kilometre for metro rail) was estimated at 9 g CO2-eq per passenger-kilometre in 2017 (IEA, 2018a).

15 Indian Railways also plans to reduce the carbon intensity of the power it consumes. It has already installed

36.5 megawatts (MW) of wind generation capacity and 14 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity and plans to install

1 gigawatt of solar PV and 500 MW of wind power (Indian Railways, 2016).

reserved.

16 Bharat Standard (BS) IV, based on EURO 4, has been enforced for all new vehicles since April 2017. BS VI, based on EURO

6, will apply to all new vehicles registered from April 2020. With such tightening of the emissions standard regulations, the

Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) is leapfrogging directly from EUR 4 equivalent to EUR 6 equivalent

rights

(Transportpolicy.net, 2018).

17 This result is obtained by assessing the implication if rail passenger activity in India in 2015 had been replaced by

All

passenger light-duty vehicles, two/three-wheelers and buses maintaining the relative modal shares, and freight rail activity

replaced by heavy freight trucks, using appropriate pollutant emission factors for the different modes (IEA, 2016).

2019.

18 For more detailed discussions of the other energy sector trends in India in the Base Scenario, which set the context for the

IEA

railway projections, see World Energy Outlook-2018 (IEA, 2018c).