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Trends in the High Rail Scenario

Main assumptions

As illustrated in Chapter 2, transport energy demand and associated environmental impacts in

the Base Scenario are set to grow significantly to 2050 on the basis of existing and planned Page | 101 policies, despite an impressive growth of rail transport. Further enhancing the role of rail can be

a possible means to contain the projected rise transport energy demand as well as carbon dioxide (CO2) and local air pollutant emissions. That is why this chapter develops an alternative scenario – the High Rail Scenario – which shows the energy and environmental benefits that could be achieved through stronger action to enhance the role of rail. Reinforcing the role of rail does not entirely eliminate the environmental impact of transport. But it does offer a pragmatic agenda for change, all the more so since enhancing the role of rail does not depend on any technological breakthroughs or radical innovations on the policy side.

The High Rail Scenario presents a plausible future in which rail plays an enhanced role in the transport sector by replacing much transport demand from cars, two/three-wheelers and road freight transport, relative to the Base Scenario. Given that rail transport is very capital intensive, unlocking an enhanced role for rail requires action to increase its economic attractiveness. For this reason, the High Rail Scenario rests on three main pillars:

•Minimising costs per passenger-kilometre or tonne-kilometre moved, in order to ensure that the preconditions for maximum rail network usage are in place (e.g. through urban planning measures that provide integration of other modes of transport with the rail transport network); that technical barriers are removed (e.g. through the adoption of international standards that facilitate inter-operability); and adoption of digital technologies to facilitate the integration of rail services into the range of mobility options available for passengers and goods (to facilitate higher throughput).

•Maximising revenues from rail systems, capitalising on the “aggregation” capacity of railway stations (land value capture), a model which has already made several rail systems profitable.

•Ensuring that all forms of transport pay not only for the use of the infrastructure they need, but also for the adverse impacts they generate. Traditionally, this has been done through fuel taxation, but road pricing and especially congestion charging are likely to be more effective means for regulating the infrastructure and congestion impacts of road vehicles. The case can be strengthened by increased transport electrification and a transition

towards road vehicle automation, both of which are likely to require price signals to modulate demand.2

A broader range of policy tools includes measures influencing urban structures, forms and densities, and instruments that increase the implicit cost (time and money) of driving personal vehicles. They are elaborated in the policy section at the end of the chapter.

2 In the case of electrification, negative external impacts of cars and trucks would be limited to impacts on road infrastructure and congestion, and so taxation schemes would need to be designed to address these impacts, as opposed to those (like local pollution and GHG emissions) associated with vehicles running on internal combustion engines. In the case of self-driving cars, congestion pricing or similar schemes would be needed to prevent likely increases in congestion coming from the lower costs and higher convenience of vehicle travel.

The Future of Rail

Opportunities for energy and the environment

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Additional track-km increase relative to 2017 (High Rail Scenario)

Track-km increase

relative to 2017 (Base Scenario)

Network length (right axis)

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Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • Expansion of the metro and high-speed rail networks in the High Rail Scenario significantly exceeds that in the Base Scenario. The rate of growth of these parts of the rail network exceeds that of conventional rail.

While the conventional rail network grows relatively slowly (36% between 2017 and 2050), the sheer size of the existing network means that it is the dominant growth area in absolute terms (close to 600 000 kilometres by 2050). By comparison, metro and high-speed rail additions reach almost 300 000 kilometres by the same year.

The metro rail network increases its length by 325% between 2017 and 2050, to reach over 150 000 kilometres (Figure 3.6). People’s Republic of China (“China”) adds the most track length in absolute terms between 2017 and 2050 (about 43 000 kilometres), although the growth rate is higher in India (reaching close to 13 000 kilometres by 2050, up from roughly 1 000 kilometres in 2017). The balance of the global metro rail network shifts strongly towards Asia, where over two-thirds of all metro track-kilometres are to be found by 2050. Other regions where the length of metro systems is relatively low, including Africa, South America, North America and Russian Federation (“Russia”), more than triple or quadruple their metro network in the same timeframe. Europe and Japan, which already have large metro network coverage in their main cities, add almost 8 000 kilometres and 1 700 kilometres of tracks, respectively, providing almost 240 billion additional passenger-kilometres of transport per year, compared to 2017. In all world regions, the rate of train activity growth is faster than the track build-out: in the High

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Rail Scenario, the capacity utilisation rate of the metro network is improved by 40% (in terms of train-kilometre/track-kilometre) by 2050, with shorter intervals between trains enabled by digitalisation.3

Figure 3.6 Metro rail network build-out by region in the High Rail Scenario, 2017 and 2050

2017

2050

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • The length of the metro rail network increases by 325% between 2017 and 2050, at which point over two-thirds of metro rail tracks are located in Asia.

Figure 3.7 Network build of high-speed rail by country in the Base Scenario and High Rail Scenario, 2017 and 2050

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • High-speed rail construction in the High Rail Scenario goes well beyond that of the Base Scenario and includes development of high-speed rail in regions where it is not yet planned.

Asian countries (above all China) and Europe remain the dominant high-speed rail regions in 2050, together accounting for almost 60% of global high-speed track-kilometre growth in the High Rail Scenario (Figure 3.7). The additional high-speed rail construction goes well beyond

3 Given the high occupancy and network utilisation rates, metro and light rail services are not significantly subject to changes in track-kilometre per passenger-kilometre. The key determinants of the ratio between metro and light rail passenger activity and networks extension are structural effects associated with the adaptation of metro capacities to passenger flows (metros in densely populated megacities of emerging economies that need to guarantee higher throughput per trackkilometre compared with Europe) and network utilisation levels that are 7% higher in the High Rail Scenario than in the Base Scenario by 2050 due to a higher reliance on digital technologies. Improvements in track utilisation (vehicle activity per track-kilometre) alleviate the upward pressure on track growth.