3. High Rail Scenario: Unlocking the Benefits of Rail

• Increasing the rail sector’s share in global transport offers major benefits. Rail is much more

Page | 97

energy efficient than any other mode of transport and it relies to a significant extent on

electricity, offering a distinct opportunity to reduce energy use, CO2 emissions and air pollution.

In an urban environment, rail has significant advantages as it moves large flows of passengers,

can mitigate congestion and realise economic benefits through agglomeration effects.

High-speed rail is the only established alternative to aviation on short-distance flights and freight

rail the only alternative to long-distance inland road freight transport, two sectors that account

for large and rapidly growing shares of transport-related energy demand and emissions and, so

far, where alternative technology options are limited.

• The High Rail Scenario explores the extent to which rail can replace less efficient transport

modes including cars, two/three-wheelers, aviation and trucks. Compared with the Base

Scenario, policies to promote rail and encourage operational efficiency across all modes in the

High Rail Scenario reduce and shift 11.5 trillion passenger-kilometres from airplanes, cars and

two/three-wheelers, and 7.4 trillion tonne-kilometres from trucks in 2050. Despite a limited

increase in electricity demand (620 TWh higher than in the Base Scenario in 2050), transport

energy demand overall is much reduced (by 15%) in 2050. Some 90% of this net reduction is in

oil use, which is 10 mb/d lower than in the Base Scenario in 2050.

• The High Rail Scenario delivers significant environmental benefits: by 2050, transport-related

well-to-wheel GHG emissions are 2.1 Gt CO2-eq (or 16%) lower than in the Base Scenario, and

rail makes it possible to avoid an additional 220 kt (35%) of PM2.5 emissions. Direct

energy-related CO2 emissions from transport peak before 2040 in this outlook and then decline

to 2015 levels by 2050. The High Rail Scenario alone does not achieve the targets of the Paris

Agreement, but the substantial emissions reduction achieved make rail an essential component

of a more comprehensive energy and transport strategy.

• Minimising costs, maximising potential revenues and ensuring that all transport modes pay not

only for the use of the infrastructure but also for the adverse impacts they generate (e.g.

through road pricing and congestion charges) are crucial strategies to unlock the significant

benefits to sustainable transport that rail can offer. Achieving the modal shifts outlined in this

scenario requires both increased policy effort and substantial investment. Average annual

investment in rail infrastructure is USD 640 billion between 2018 and 2050, 90% higher than in

the Base Scenario. Capture of the added land value attributable to rail investment is central to

the economic viability of rail infrastructure projects. To improve the competitiveness of rail with

other modes, transport pricing policies that embody the principles of “user pays” and “polluter

pays”, together with digital technologies to optimise rail operations and improve the integration

of rail in overall mobility services, are required.

• Additional investment would be required in rail infrastructure, but expenditure on vehicles in

the High Rail Scenario is reduced compared with the Base Scenario, and so are investments in

reserved.

road and parking infrastructure, and expenditure on transport fuels (15% lower than in the Base

Scenario in 2050). The savings are achieved through increased reliance on more efficient

transport modes and reduced use of private passenger and road freight transport, reducing the

IEA 2019. All rights

need for expenditure on roads, the number of vehicles to be acquired and overall fuel demand.