Figure 3.11 Share of flights and available seat-kilometres that high-speed rail could displace based on competitive travel times by departure country

Note: Assumptions shown in Table 2.2.

Source: IEA analysis based on OAG (2018).

Key message • The potential for high-speed rail to be time-competitive with flights depends mainly on geographical considerations, e.g. distance between large cities, and topography.

Freight rail in the High Rail Scenario

Freight rail in the High Rail Scenario increases by 3 trillion tonne-kilometres in 2050, relative to the Base Scenario, despite a 5% decline in freight activity overall, due to structural changes in the supply chain and overall improvements in logistics (Figure 3.12). This change, effected by pricing policies, investments in intermodal terminals and better integration of rail into supply chains, occurs primarily through shifts from heavy-duty road freight to rail. Increased rail capacity allows rail to retain its market share of bulk commodity transport, enlarge the range of commodities carried (e.g. by larger shares of fertilisers, agricultural products and intermediate manufactured commodities) and intercept part of the surface transport of containers. China, North America, Russia and India account for most of the net increase – regions that have significant inland freight transport movements, major shares of freight rail transport, and in which road freight movements on heavy-duty vehicles are large enough to justify modal shifts.

In the High Rail Scenario, the contribution of rail freight transport to overall freight transport (excluding shipping) remains stable at around 27% in 2050, while in the Base Scenario this share decreases from 28% in 2017 to 23% in 2050. In principle, freight rail could gain additional market share against long-distance maritime transport, but such a development is not considered in the High Rail Scenario.

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