IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

By 2050, China and India are projected to have the highest increase in rail energy use in the High Rail Scenario, relative to the Base Scenario (Figure 3.15). Rail energy demand remains highest in volumetric terms in China, where rail by 2050 accounts for 6% of total transport energy use, up from 4% in the Base Scenario. Rail energy demand in North America also grows strongly, predominantly in freight.

Page | 111

Figure 3.15 Projected rail energy demand growth by region

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • The High Rail Scenario would entail on average one-third higher energy consumption for rail relative to the Base Scenario.

Implications for GHG emissions and local pollutants

Direct CO2 emissions in the High Rail Scenario

Figure 3.16 Direct CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the High Rail Scenario, 2017-50

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • Due to the effects of modal shift, direct energy-related CO2 emissions from transport in the High Rail Scenario peak between 2030 and 2050, after which they start to decline; by 2050, CO2 emissions drop to the level of 2017.

In the High Rail Scenario, direct CO2 emissions at the tailpipe resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels are higher in 2050 than in 2017 (Figure 3.16). However, while CO2 emissions in the Base Scenario grow continuously through 2050, in the High Rail Scenario CO2 emissions peak between 2035 and 2040, after which they start to decline. Most of the savings in direct CO2 emissions observed in the High Rail Scenario, compared with the Base Scenario, results from

The Future of Rail

Opportunities for energy and the environment

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

The activity shifts between passenger and freight modes lead to a reduction in annual transport-related well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG emissions of 2.1 Gt CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) emissions per year, a 17% reduction from the Base Scenario (Figure 3.17). This is achieved as a result of the much lower energy intensity of rail modes, compared with road-based modes or aviation.11

In passenger transport, GHG emission reductions are achieved by reducing and shifting activity from cars, two/three-wheelers and from aviation to urban, conventional and high-speed rail. Shifting 11.2 trillion passenger-kilometres from road transport12 and aviation results in a reduction of roughly 1 Gt CO2-eq WTW GHG emissions, while the additional volume of passenger-kilometres on rail accounts for only 110 million tonnes (Mt) CO2-eq. Shifting and reducing freight activity reduces road freight emissions by nearly 1 Gt CO2-eq, offset from increased freight rail by 33 Mt CO2-eq emissions from increased activity.

Figure 3.17 Well-to-wheel GHG emissions from transport in the Base and High Rail scenarios

16

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • In the High Rail Scenario, shifting transport modes cuts by half the increase in emissions (2015-50) projected in the Base Scenario. Emissions increases due to shifting passenger and freight activity to rail are more than an order of magnitude lower than those displaced from other modes.

11The High Rail Scenario maintains the same assumptions regarding vehicle technology improvement and fuel technology mix as the Base Scenario. Estimated future energy use per passenger-kilometre of high-speed rail activity remains around 90% lower than in aviation throughout the projection period. This is achieved despite improvements in aviation that enable the sector to meet the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) goal of reducing the energy intensity of aviation by 2% per year (ICAO, 2013).

12Note that this includes GHG emission reductions occurring due to lower activity in cars, two/three-wheelers (1 Gt CO2-eq),

as well as aircraft (0.1 Gt CO2-eq), partly offset by GHG emission increases for buses (0.1 Gt CO2-eq).

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

The GHG emission reductions achieved in the High Rail Scenario, relative to the Base Scenario, are fairly evenly distributed across countries (Figure 3.18). By 2050, shifts to rail and other public transport enable most countries to reduce GHG emissions from transport by 13-18%, compared to the Base Scenario.

In addition to reducing overall transport sector GHG emissions, the High Rail Scenario also

delivers air quality benefits, particularly in urban areas. By 2050, the shift to rail in the High Rail Page | 113 Scenario makes it possible to avoid an additional 220 thousand tonnes (kt) of fine particulate

(PM2.5) emissions from transport (nearly 35% higher savings) compared with the Base Scenario.

Figure 3.18 WTW GHG emissions savings from transport by region in the High Rail Scenario relative to the Base Scenario, 2050

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • Transport-related GHG emissions reductions in the High Rail Scenario, relative to the Base Scenario, are between 11% and 16% in 2050, depending on the country. In North America, China and India savings are greater than 300 Mt of CO2-eq per year.

While the environmental benefits of the High Rail Scenario are substantial, far greater sustainability gains can be realised by coupling increased activity on rail with other changes in the broad energy system (including more rapid deployment of low-carbon electricity generation) and by accelerating the adoption of more efficient vehicles across all modes of transport, i.e. in lightand heavy-duty road vehicles, shipping, and aviation (Box 3.3).

Box 3.3 Contribution of the High Rail Scenario to achieving the Paris Agreement targets

Taken in isolation, the High Rail Scenario does not meet the Paris Agreement targets. In order to reduce GHG emissions in line with those targets, shifting road-based transport modes and aviation to rail (as illustrated in the High Rail Scenario) needs to be complemented by energy efficiency and fuel switching measures to reduce the carbon intensity of the service provided. The effects of this full suite of measures are presented in Figure 3.19: they reduce transport energy use by 39% and cut well-to-wheel GHG emissions by 67% by 2050, compared with the Base Scenario.

The key technological solutions assumed in the High Rail Scenario include:

•Strong improvements in the energy efficiency of combustion engines in all transport modes.

•Enhanced electrification of the transport sector, mainly in shortand- medium-distance road modes and rail.

•Decarbonisation of electricity generation.

•Increased adoption of other low-carbon fuels, such as advanced biofuels, electro-fuels and hydrogen, mainly for long-distance road-based modes, aviation and shipping.