IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Figure 3.12 Change in surface freight transport activity (left) and freight rail activity (right) in the High Rail and Base scenarios, 2030 and 2050

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • In the High Rail Scenario, rail increases its market share of freight transport mainly at the expense of heavy trucks. The largest freight activity gains are in China, North America, Russia and India.

Box 3.2 Relationship between the High Rail Scenario and the UIC activity targets

In 2014, the International Union of Railways (UIC) set two aspirational targets for increased rail activity: passenger transport to increase market share by 50% in 2030 and 100% in 2050, compared to 2010 levels; and freight transport to match the activity level of road transport by 2030 and to exceed road freight volumes by 2050 (UIC, 2014). With a 75% increase in market share compared to 2010, the High Rail Scenario approaches the UIC’s activity target in the passenger sector by 2050, though it does not meet it; nor does it meet the lower target in 2030. Fully meeting the UIC target for 2050, as well as the 2030 goal would probably require incremental shifts, and in particular a higher reliance on high-speed rail, in comparison with the results projected in the High Rail Scenario.

Freight achieves a surface modal share slightly below one-third both in 2030 and 2050. Achieving the UIC’s activity targets for the freight sector is unlikely to be feasible without shifting part of long-distance maritime freight transport to rail. If the UIC freight target were to be met by shifting activity from ships to rail, the required shift would amount to 37 and 90 trillion tonne-kilometres in 2030 and 2050, respectively, which corresponds to 23% and 30% of the total shipping activity projected for those years.

Implications for energy demand

Total transport energy demand in the High Rail Scenario reaches 3 100 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2030 and 3 300 Mtoe in 2050 (Figure 3.13). Compared to the Base Scenario, this is a reduction of 565 Mtoe in energy demand by 2050, of which 510 Mtoe (approximately 10 million barrels per day [mb/d]) is oil. The High Rail Scenario does not take into account changes in market shares of different powertrain technologies, compared with the Base Scenario, assuming the same energy intensity for each technology option. Therefore, the differences in energy demand are imputable only to structural shifts across modes, differences in the modal energy mixes and net reductions in travel activity due to reduced trip distances. Shifts from cars, two/three-wheelers, trucks and planes are responsible for most of the energy demand reductions, although these are mitigated somewhat by an increase in electricity demand from rail by almost 320 terawatt-hours (TWh) (27 Mtoe) by 2050, relative to the Base Scenario.

The Future of Rail

Opportunities for energy and the environment

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Mtoe

3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1000

500

0

Electricity

Oil

Biofuels

Gas

Others

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Figure 3.14 Energy demand in rail by activity and fuel type in the Base and High Rail scenarios, 2017 and 2050

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • Both scenarios project increased rail electrification, converting almost half of freight energy use from diesel to electricity.