The Future of Rail

Opportunities for energy and the environment

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Gtoe

4.5

Gt CO2 equivalent

16

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Investment requirements in the High Rail Scenario

In the High Rail Scenario, travel demand management and measures to promote modal shifts result in changes in both investment and consumer expenditure. With declining passenger vehicle activity and increasing mobility by rail (and bus), public and private investments are shifted from road to rail infrastructure (for a summary of the range of costs for different types

13 There is a small gap observable between the blue wedge and the dotted line in Figure 3.19. This is attributable to the effect where combining mode-shifting with “improve” measures diminishes somewhat the energy and GHG reduction effect from mode-shifting. This is because improvements in the “inefficient” modes to be replaced by rail are stronger with improve measures, reducing the gap between the average energyand carbon intensity of services on rail versus the inefficient modes it displaces by mode-shifting.

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

of rail infrastructures, see the Investment section in Chapter 2).14 The two scenarios also imply different outlays for vehicles. In the High Rail Scenario, greater use of public transit and cycling and walking allows people to reduce reliance on personal vehicles and the associated spending on vehicles and fuel. These savings are partially offset by increased expenditure on buses and trains.

Global average annualised outlays for road transport infrastructure are lower in the High Rail Page | 115 Scenario than the Base Scenario by around USD 300 billion (United States dollars) (USD year-

2015 purchasing power parity [PPP] basis), a reduction of about 20% (Figure 3.20). Annual savings from reduced expenditures on vehicles (primarily road vehicles, though trains, planes and ships are also included) are even larger in absolute terms (about USD 670 billion, compared with the Base Scenario), though the decline is smaller in percentage terms (8%).

Global average annualised outlays on trains and rail infrastructure are higher in the High Rail Scenario than in the Base Scenario by USD 290 billion (USD year-2015 PPP), or 60% more (Figure 3.20). Nearly all of the additional investment is directed to urban rail infrastructure (nearly USD 190 billion) and high-speed rail infrastructure (USD 70 billion). The additional cost of the trains themselves is small in comparison, due to the improved operations and efficiency realised in the High Rail Scenario.

Figure 3.20 Average annualised outlays on transport vehicles and infrastructure across all modes (left) and on trains (right) in the Base and High Rail scenarios, 2018-50

Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity. Estimates of the costs of road and rail infrastructure construction, reconstruction and operation and maintenance are based on literature estimates per lane-kilometre and per track-kilometre from various sources, and are validated against investment data from the OECD (2017). Paved lane-kilometres are estimated based on data from the International Road Federation (2012). Infrastructure costs are estimated, based on the projected extensions of road and rail infrastructure, which, in turn, are based on utilisation rates (in vehicle-kilometres per lane-kilometre or track-kilometre) of these elements. Vehicle costs are benchmarked to evaluations of the current cost, and their development is estimated based on energy efficiency component cost curves and total production volumes.

Source: IEA (2018).

Key message • Annual average savings on road infrastructure total USD 270 billion and savings on vehicles (including cars, trucks, and aircraft) are around USD 670 billion. To achieve these savings, the High Rail Scenario requires additional annual average investments on the order of USD 290 billion, most of which are for urban and high-speed rail infrastructure.

14 Changes in energy consumption patterns and urban form, of course, would also result in more widespread, second-order changes. Examples include shifting investments in energy supply (e.g. from oil production and refining to electricity generation), and city infrastructure (e.g. from single family households to apartment complexes and mixed-use developments). No attempt has been made to capture these implications of the High Rail Scenario.