Introduction

Rail transport is an important part of passenger and freight activity today but, as competing

pressures arise from other major motorised modes of transport, there is no guarantee that it

will maintain its position in the future. In relation to passenger transport, rail is confronted by

increasing demand for individual, flexible and seamless mobility, readily available at any time of

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day and for any possible destination. Personal cars offer such service and, with the advent of

electric cars, some of the main environmental shortcomings of individual motorisation, most

prominently local pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, might be substantially

reduced in the future. Air travel is another significant competitor, often connecting people

faster and with more flexibility to their destination, generally with less reliance on the

construction of complex network infrastructure.

The challenges to freight rail are also formidable. The main competitors are road freight trucks,

which generally offer a more flexible option than freight rail: freight trucks rely less on

dedicated infrastructure and are much more modular in the scope of activity, meaning they

require lower delivery volumes than rail to make a business case. Yet, trucks are more energy

and emissions intensive per tonne-kilometre than rail, and cause considerable damage to the

road infrastructure (forces on roads reflect the cube of axle weight). Currently, they are rarely

charged for either their emissions or infrastructure damage.

This is the context for discussion of the Base Scenario in this chapter. The Base Scenario models

how rail transport might handle competitive pressures on the basis of existing policies and

those that have been announced as of December 2018. It considers rail transport in the context

of overall energy and transport trends, taking account of all policies that have been adopted in

other energy sectors, including power, industry and buildings.1 This includes the commitments

made in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

Significantly, while these actions require substantial changes in investment and use patterns in

energy and elsewhere, they prove, in the analysis, to be insufficient to limit expected warming

to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

For transport, the policies taken into account include rising road vehicle fuel-economy

standards, as well as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) targets to improve the

energy efficiency of airlines by 2% annually and the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO)

Energy Efficiency Design Index, which mandates an annual average energy efficiency

improvement of the shipping fleet of 1% between 2015 and 2025. For rail, the scenario takes

account of all recent trends and, as stated, all declared policy intentions that could shape the

future development of rail transport.2

The future of rail relies in many ways on the roll-out of new infrastructure, the pace of which is

a key constraint on growth. The Base Scenario reflects declared intentions including: the pace of

1 All non-transport projections in this scenario are drawn from the New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook-2018

(IEA, 2018a).

reserved.

2 The development of passenger activity in the Base Scenario is projected from 2018 to 2050 on the basis of a few key

differences across countries, taking into account the influences of long-term levels of fuel taxation and geography on

assumptions. The key drivers of activity growth are developments in national gross domestic product (GDP) (World Bank,

2018), and urban and non-urban population developments (UN DESA, 2017). The projections account for structural

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population density, vehicle ownership and usage patterns, as well as modal shares. Developments in GDP per capita,

together with changes in the size and share of populations living in cities of various sizes, drive projections of passenger

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activity. The projected modal split of passenger activity across two/three-wheelers, passenger cars, buses, rail and air travel

is based on literature informed estimates of the effects of policies, including pricing measures (e.g. on vehicle purchase and

2019.

fuel taxation) and urban “travel demand management” policies, such as congestion charging, low-emissions zones and

IEA

internal combustion engine and diesel circulation restrictions.

development of rail transport infrastructure (including projects to develop new high-speed rail

lines or expand existing ones), targets for capacity utilisation, plans to electrify railway lines and

targets of modal shares for rail in transport activity. In addition to the specific targets

(Table 2.1), urban rail activity projections to 2025 are informed by planned “greenfield” metro

and light rail projects to 2023; beyond that the expansion of urban rail infrastructure is

projected on the basis of the perceived potential role for urban rail, in line with the known

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investment criteria and broad assumptions about the opportunities open to rail in an era of

urbanisation. High-speed rail activity projections to 2050 are based on approved or planned

construction of high-speed rail lines.3

Table 2.1

Selected targets and rail development policies by region in the Base Scenario

Region

Description

Source

Investments to complete the core of the Trans-European Transport

Europe

Network and implementation of the European Rail Traffic Management

European Commission

System by 2030, supporting activity growth of 1.4% per year for non-

(2016); European

urban passenger rail, 2.5% per year for high-speed rail and 1.2% per

Commission (2017)

year for freight rail from 2010 to 2050.

People’s

The 13th Five-Year Plan provides for the extension of high-speed rail

Republic of

lines by 30 000 kilometres by 2020, connecting more than 80% of all

NDRC (2016)

China

large cities.

Russian

Russian Railways: achieve activity growth of 3.0% per year for

Ivanov (2018)

Federation

passenger rail and 4.5% per year for freight rail from 2017 to 2025.

Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth of the Indian

Planning Commission,

India

(2014); National Institution

Government’s Planning Commission provide for activity growth of

for Transforming India,

7.0% per year for both passenger and freight rail from 2017 to 2025.

(2018)

The pace of adoption of new technologies in the Base Scenario similarly reflects declared

intentions, and, where policy intentions are unclear, the pace of change that would be needed

in the transport sector to achieve the NDC pledges. In rail, this includes more electrification,

starting with the most used routes; increased adoption of automated train driving (which is

already in place in urban rail in some cities)4 and increasing use of communication-based train

controls. The Base Scenario does project radical technological change, beyond current

expectations, in any transport mode.

The projections in the Base Scenario signal to policy makers and other stakeholders the

direction which today’s ambitions are likely to take the rail sector. This does not make this

scenario a forecast. Alongside other uncertainties, like the pace of economic growth and

technology change within the rail sector as well as beyond, adjustments will be made to policies

affecting the rail sector in the future, beyond those already announced, responding to new

circumstances or priorities. The Base Scenario is not a normative scenario: it does not depict a

3 Key sources for this assessment include the European Commission (2016). Data on the growth of network extension and

activity (in passenger-kilometres) on high capacity urban rail developments come from the International Association of

reserved.

Public Transport (UITP) (Union Internationale des Transports Publics) (UITP, 2018a; UITP, 2018b). Data on new metro and

light rail projects to be opened in the coming years are from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP,

2018). Information on prospects for new urban rail developments in China are from the Office of the State Council (2018a,

2018b) Announcements on high-speed rail lines planned are from the International Union of Railways (UIC) (Union

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Internationale des Chemins de Fer) (UIC, 2018). The Base Scenario takes into account projects under construction or already

approved, as well as information shared with the IEA and the UIC in a joint workshop on rail and energy, and in particular,

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indications from Ivanov (2018); Strohschneider (2018); Lee (2018); and in the case of India from Pillai (2018); Sinha (2018)

and Mishra (2018).

2019.

4 Over the next five years, an additional 2 200 kilometres of fully automated metro lines are expected to be in operation

IEA

(representing over 40% of new length), led by growth in Asia-Pacific, Europe and the Middle East (UITP, 2016; UITP, 2018).