The Future of Rail
Opportunities for energy and the environment
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
High investment costs mean that the expansion of high-speed rail networks is viable only where a combination is found of relatively high activity and densely populated urban areas to ensure adequate funding and high passenger utilisation rates (Nash, 2015). Despite these strict prerequisites, the number of countries with at least one high-speed rail line more than doubles in the Base Scenario, from 14 today to 29 by 2050.5 Most of this network expansion takes place
Page | 74 in Asia, although China’s share of high-speed rail track length is expected to decrease from 70% in 2017 to 57% in 2050. Europe, North America, India and other Asian countries also expand high-speed rail networks in the Base Scenario (Figure 2.3).
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Rail transport activity
Passenger rail
Demand for passenger mobility by all means of transport continues to rise in the Base Scenario. As the global economy nearly triples in size by 2050 and the world population grows by around 30%, passenger transport activity increases to over 100 trillion passenger-kilometres, more than twice as high as in 2017. Increasing demand for mobility in emerging economies is the main factor, arising as a consequence of rising incomes and a growing middle class (Figure 2.4). Non-rail modes of passenger transport experience significant growth alongside rail: world passenger car ownership reaches 240 per 1 000 people by 2050, roughly twice as high as today; the number of two/three-wheelers on the world’s roads increases to 1.4 billion in 2050, up from less than 1 billion today; and air travel grows strongly bringing revenue passenger-kilometres (a measure of air travel activity) up to 21 trillion in 2050 (from 6 trillion today).
Figure 2.4 Passenger transport activity by all motorised means by region (left) and mode (right) in the Base Scenario, 2017, 2030 and 2050
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40 |
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Source: IEA (2018b).
Key message • Emerging economies significantly increase their share of total passenger travel in 2050. Rail accounts consistently for roughly one-tenth of all passenger activity through 2050.
Rail transport is no exception. In the Base Scenario, global passenger rail activity more than doubles (+116%) from present levels, reaching 9.4 trillion passenger-kilometres in 2050. The result is that rail broadly maintains its present modal share of global passenger activity throughout the projection period, at close to one-tenth of all activity. In the Base Scenario,
5 Denmark, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States have high-speed rail lines under construction. Canada, India, Indonesia, Islamic Republic of Iran (“Iran”), Israel, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Poland and Russia plan to build their first high-speed rail lines in the period to 2050.
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The Future of Rail
Opportunities for energy and the environment
urban rail in 2050 covers 2% of activity in cities, its share ranging from less than 1% in North America and India to 15% in Japan.6 Outside cities, rail accounts for a share of total motorised passenger-kilometres ranging between less than 1% in North America to half in Japan. The global average is 14% (IEA, 2018b).7
Within rail, non-urban rail dominates, simply because shorter travel distances on urban rail
result in lower volumes of aggregate activity (passenger-kilometres) when compared with non- Page | 75 urban rail.
The rate of growth in passenger rail activity is by no means uniform across the world in the Base Scenario; it depends on the rate of growth in demand and the emphasis put on achieving further extension of rail use. In Europe and Japan, per capita demand for passenger mobility is already largely stable (apart from demand for aviation, which continues to grow). Even so, in Europe, passenger rail activity increases to 840 billion passenger-kilometres by 2050, 60% above current levels, supported in the European Union by the plans of various member states to increase the network length of high-speed rail by 80% by mid-century, and by the European Commission’s promotion and co-funding of high-speed rail projects (see Table 2.1).8 Rail growth in Europe is further evidenced by near-term plans in cities to extend metro and light rail networks by more than 10% over current levels in the coming five years. In Japan, passenger rail activity decreases by 14% by 2050, in the context of overall decreases in all passenger transport activity (of more than 5%), due to declining population. Rail activity in Korea is set to increase by approximately 70%, driven by high-speed rail. Passenger rail activity in North America continues to play a minor role, mostly in cities.
Most of the growth of passenger rail activity in the Base Scenario is attributable to expanding rail use in emerging economies, most notably in India (where passenger rail activity triples between 2017 and 2050, mostly on the conventional rail network) and China (where passenger rail doubles, mostly on its extensive high-speed rail network). The situation in India, (discussed in detail in Chapter 4) is that, despite the marked increase in the provision of urban rail (plans over the coming decade are to more than double the current metro system length) and in urban rail activity, rail does no more than maintain its relative importance (in terms of modal share), as road transport and aviation similarly experience strong growth. In China, the share of passenger rail in overall transport activity increases as a result of the construction of urban and high-speed rail networks that is already underway. The growth slows after 2030 though, pending confirmation of further infrastructure projects (Figure 2.5).
China and India remain the countries with far and away the highest levels of passenger rail activity over the outlook period. With their vast size and generally high train occupancy, China and India increase their combined share of global passenger rail activity (in passengerkilometres) to over 70% by 2050 (from slightly more than 60% today). However, train activity (measured in train-kilometres) remains higher in Europe, and by 2050 the European Union accounts for one-quarter of all train-kilometres globally, closely followed by China (23%) and India (16%). The discrepancy between passenger rail activity and train activity is explained by the fact that that train occupancy in the European Union is far lower than in China and India.
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In the case of non-urban transport, rail shares are assessed accounting for aviation, and intercity trips by car and buses. |
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8 The activity projections in the Base Scenario are in line with the projections for non-urban rail of the European Commission |
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Page | 76
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The Future of Rail |
IEA 2019. All rights reserved. |
Opportunities for energy and the environment
Figure 2.5 Passenger rail activity by region in passenger-kilometres (left) and train-kilometres (right) in the Base Scenario, 2017, 2030 and 2050
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Source: IEA (2018b).
Key message • India and China dominate world rail passenger activity and expand their share to 70% by 2050. Train-kilometres travelled remain highest in Europe, where occupancy is lower.
Urban rail
Today, 54% of the world’s population lives in urban areas, but only one-tenth of that population lives in large cities with access to urban rail systems, most of which are in Europe and Asia.9 Partly as a consequence of this fact, metro and urban light rail account for less than 1% of motorised passenger-kilometres travelled worldwide. Additionally, the metric of passenger-kilometres alone does not convey the value of high throughput, space efficient, affordable mobility that metro and light rail systems provide to billions of residents in the world’s largest cities.
By 2050, the number of people living in cities is expected to grow by 2.5 billion people, reaching two-thirds of the global population. Total urban transport demand is projected to rise, in consequence, by 1.7% per year on average through 2050. Most of the urbanisation occurs in developing and emerging countries: between 2017 and 2050, urban transport activity across all modes grows by a factor of 1.7 in China, 2.2 in India and 3.7 in Africa.
Urban rail systems can be expected to be developed in those regions where the number and size of densely populated megacities increases. In the Base Scenario, global urban rail activity is projected to grow from 420 billion passenger-kilometres in 2017 (1% of all urban transport activity), to one trillion in 2050 (2% of urban transport activity), a rise of more than 2% per year on average (Figure 2.6). In the Base Scenario, 200 new metro lines are opened in the next five years, including the first in sub-Saharan Africa. These will add nearly 7 000 kilometres of new metro lines to the global network (UITP, 2018a). Around 900 kilometres of new light rail lines are also planned in the next four years, mostly in Europe, but also in Asia and the Americas (UITP, 2018b).
China is projected to achieve the biggest increase in urban rail activity through 2050, despite a slowdown after 2030 to reflect recent announcements of the government.10 India experiences a
9However, about 30% of the global population lives in cities with sufficient density and size to justify infrastructure investment in metro and light rail networks (IEA analysis based on CIESIN, 2005).
10Between 2018 and 2022, 4 800 kilometres of new metro lines are expected to be opened in China, more than doubling the length of its system in 2017 (UITP, 2018a; UITP, 2018d). In the Base Scenario, the increase slows from 2030 to 2050,
following the recent decision by the government to reduce the pace of construction of urban rail in light of the need to
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
IEA 2019. All rights reserved. |
The Future of Rail |
|
Opportunities for energy and the environment |
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higher rate of growth than China, at 6% per year, partly achieved because of starting at a lower baseline.11 The Base Scenario also projects several new urban rail networks in Africa. Starting from a low activity level in 2017 of 4.5 billion passenger-kilometres, the total volume of urban rail activity in Africa reaches 17 billion passenger-kilometres in 2050. This matches the level of urban rail activity of the United States and is one-third that of India.
Page | 77
Figure 2.6 Urban rail activity by region in the Base Scenario, 2017, 2030 and 2050
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Source: IEA (2018b).
Key message • Urban transport activity growth is highest in China and mainly takes place before 2030. In the next five years, China is expected to double its current metro network length.
Conventional and high-speed rail
In the Base Scenario, activity on conventional and high-speed rail lines, taken together, increases by 45% over today’s level in 2030, and by almost 120% by 2050 (Figure 2.7) (IEA, 2018b). About 80% of this growth occurs in China and India, although Africa is expected to increase the fastest (albeit from a low starting point).
Conventional rail activity in the Base Scenario almost doubles between 2017 and 2050, to 6.2 trillion passenger-kilometres. As other transport modes outside of cities experience significant activity growth, rail continues to represent around 15% of total non-urban activity (although large regional differences exist). Rail passenger activity over India’s conventional rail network is expected to almost triple by 2050, accounting for more than 80% of global growth in conventional rail’s passenger traffic.12
Japan and North America experience a decline in the number of passenger-kilometres travelled by conventional rail, as a result of the gradual shift towards high-speed rail, lower travel
ensure financial sustainability for metro projects (Poon, 2018; Office of the State Council, 2018a; Office of the State Council, 2018b).
11The government of India has announced that it intends to mitigate the negative impacts of rapid urbanisation (particularly air pollution and congestion) by building mass transit systems. The Metro Rail Policy 2017 states that cities with a population of at least two million may start planning mass transit systems, including urban rail and bus rapid transit systems (MoHUA, 2017).
12India’s expansion is based on plans to invest in upgrades to the conventional rail network. These mostly involve doubling tracks on over-utilised existing routes and creating dedicated freight corridors to accommodate more activity and improve
service quality. This could increase track length by 30-35% (Indian Railways, 2018).