4. Focus on India

Highlights

•In the Base Scenario, India’s rail transport activity grows strongly by 2050; passenger rail by 200%, to 3.7 trillion passenger-kilometres and freight rail by 160%, to 1.9 trillion tonne-kilometres. These increases stem primarily from efforts to increase the attractiveness of passenger rail services, investment to address infrastructure bottlenecks for conventional rail, as well as for urban and intercity high-speed rail, e.g. the completion of the AhmedabadMumbai corridor. The share of rail in overall passenger transport activity stays broadly at today’s levels through 2050, but that of freight falls.

•The energy and emissions intensity of rail in India is low, meaning that rail services always save energy and emissions, compared with other transport modes. Today, rail in India uses 0.04 mb/d of oil and 22 TWh of electricity, but it simultaneously avoids 0.6 mb/d of oil use. It

emits 29 Mt CO2-eq, while avoiding 98 Mt CO2-eq and 60 kt of PM2.5 emissions. In the Base Scenario, these benefits compound as rail-related electricity use climbs to almost 100 TWh

and oil use falls to 0.003 mb/d in 2050, rail avoids 1.6 mb/d of oil use, 270 Mt CO2-eq and 8 kt of PM2.5 emissions.

•The High Rail Scenario reflects the results of strategic commitment to further enhance the role of rail in India. In this scenario, the competitiveness of rail services is improved by containing operational costs, increasing non-tariff revenues from rail stations and neighbouring areas, and offering additional and improved passenger services. Investment in urban and intercity rail infrastructure helps to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks and staged completion of additional high-speed rail projects helps high-speed rail compete with aviation along the “Golden Quadrilateral” and its two diagonals. The result is a significant rise in rail activity: by 2050, passenger rail activity and freight rail activity are respectively about 40% and 25% higher

than in the Base Scenario, saving an additional 1.5 mb/d of oil, 315 Mt CO2-eq and 6 kt of PM2.5 emissions.

•Rail, the lifeline of the nation, is facing competitive pressures from both road transport and aviation, which will increase further as road and aviation infrastructure expand and improve. Tapping into opportunities to generate additional revenue will strengthen the competitive edge of rail and reduce the reliance of passenger fares on cross-subsidies from bulk commodity transport by freight rail.

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Introduction

Following India’s independence in 1947, 42 different railway systems were merged, forming a national railway network of 55 000 kilometres (Indian Railways, 2018a). Initial government efforts focused on extending and re-routing to improve connectivity among large cities, as well

Page | 132 as electrification. By the 1950s, when travel demand started increasingly to be satisfied by road transport in many parts of the world, roads carried only 26% of India’s passenger movements and 14% of freight (MoRTH, 2009).

Map 4.1 Railway network map of India, 2017