Обработка экспериментальных данных

, &6+ . 5 4 ( . 5.2) , & 9 ., ,

– + , .. & 6 - 5 4 . 9 . /, + . .0 . & 1 7 0 9

& + /3 /3, . . + , .

, , & &/ , 0 . 3 + .

..

. 5.3. & 46 . 5 .

& & 5&6 5 & 1 . . /

-44 0 &, , & + 56& 01

56& 01 .,, 9 , & / & + .

& , . & 5, + 0 , & /,

&, , & 6 .0 56&. & /3 &6+ 0 . 6 . / -44 0

& , & + 01 & 5 1 & 0. & 9 . .

, 6 6 56& /, 6 6 & 5, +

-44 & 01 6 6 01 / , &0 95%

&/ 5 &.

6&/ 0 & 6 5 , & / 5 4 + . , & + 5 & 6 9 / , 6 5 4 + 1 46 0 / ,6 Autocorrelation Function. $ , &6+ 5 5 4 ( . 5.3) 1 7 , + 6+ .0 .

62

& + &6+ 0. 5 56& / + & 0 9 , 07 595 % &, & & 5 1 2.

0 & + 56& & 6 . .

. . . 9 , . / 9 , 6 & + 01 460 ,6 Tests for Randomness. ! 0 7 . ( . 5.4) , 0 6&/ 0 1 , . 01 56& /.

. 5.4. 6&/ 0 . 5 56& /.

! , . + 0 &/ + & 6 .

, . 07 & 9 . 0 , &. ! . . .

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6.

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p-Value &/ 6 0 , .

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, & &/ + &. & 5 9 p-Value < 0.05.

. ., 0 / 6&/ 1 , 01 ,

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63

, & 0 . . 0 9 63 56& 63 ., 6.

& , & & + ., 0 1 .

, / 5 4 , 5 ..0 , &6+ / 638 .6

& + 0 0, 9 , 6 5 4 + 1 46 0 ,6

Periodogram.

, &6+ . 5 4 ( . 5.5) 0 9 0 ,,

0 6 0 & + & 6 . .

., 0. $ & 0 , 5 .. (, & 9 , 6

& + 01 46, & 6 0 / ,6 Periodogram Table) . 9

6 -5 , 9,98487×106 ,, & 38 12

..

. 5.5. 5 .. . 5 .

' &3+ &/ 0. -, . & . 5 & , &/ 0 0 . & & , 5 , & 1 . 8, & + 5 1 . 9 / , 6 5 4 + 1 46 0 / ,6 Partial Autocorrelation Function (46 + 01 &).

$ , &6+ 5 5 4 ( . 5.6) . 9 , . , & 9 6 / . & & , 5 , & 1 . 8. !, + , & &, 01 8

64

5 0 95% , 6 & 56 . . 3. 2 +, + , 1 8 & , 5 . &/ .9 &3+ / 3-1 +&

5. $5 . , 5 & & 6 . 5 . 5

& 3 & 638 , & 9. !-, 01, . 0 .

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5.2.2 5 # % 2 #+.

!. . 9 + & 6 . , , & 38 . + . – 5

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. 5 .

+ &/ & 6 / & 6 .0 .

& , &6+ 5 4 + 5 9 & 6 0, & / . 6 Special/Time-Series Analysis/Descriptive Methods

65

0 7 . & 5 . , , & Data, . , &/ 0

, & / .. & 9 , + &/ ,

+ 9 / , 6 5 4 + 1 46 6 / . Horizontal Time Sequence Plot (5 &/ 0 5 4 .

, & &/).

$ , &6+ 5 5 4 ( . 5.7) , +, 0,

. , & &/ / & & + /3, , 65 0, &/7 & &/ & ..

' 7 , + &/ 0 & 56& /. & , . 5 6&/ + 9 / , 6 & + 01

46 0 / ,6 Tests for Randomness.

5& , &6+ 0. 6&/ . ( . 5.8), . 9 & / 0 ., + . & 56& /3, 1 0 5

, 5 , + + & , 07 , 9 +

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Special/Time-Series-Analysis/Smoothing (5& 9)

0 7 & 5 . & 6 . 5 .

! , + ( . 5.9) 6, + , 6. &+ 3 .

, &/ & & , 6 0 5& 9 . , 5 &/ 8 5

5 , & + , . -5 . 5 +& .

66

. 5.7. 4 + 9 . 5 .

. 5.8. . 5 56& /.

67

& 5 + 0 6 /, + , & .

, & 5& 9, & 6 9 / , 6 5 4 + 1 46 0 / ,6 Time Sequence Plot. $ , &6+ 5 5 4 ( . 5.10) 1 7 , + & + & & + /3, +

, & , + /3, & 38 10-12 . & + -

+ . 9 , & / 6 7 / & 6 , 01 .,

& 0 , 5 ..0. & -5 & 6 0, & / . 6

Window/Descriptive Methods – Cement , 9 , 6 & + 01

46, 0 / ,6 Periodogram Table. . ., . &/7 , 5 ..0 (18437,9) 6 +

, 11,25 + 1 .

5.3.0 + %! 0 . + # % 2 #+.

69 . + & / + & -5 &, + &

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& 38:

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& 6 5.1.

& , 5 & 6 & 6 0, & / . 6 Special/TimeSeries Analysis/Descriptive Methods 0 7 . & 5 .

6 / + &/ 0 , . 0 &: , & Data . ; 5 6,, Sampling Interval 6 / . , & 9 Month(s); , & Starting At / + &/ 63 6 – 1/95 (/ 1995 5.); , & Seasonality (/) – 12, , + &6 . 5 6.

& ,6 &, , + 6 0, + .

, & 6 , . & .6&/ ,& .,,

, 6. &+ 3. . &/ . y(t) = f(t)×s(t)×d(t), 5 f(t)

– , s(t) – ., d(t) – &6+ .,.

6&/ 0 ., . 9 6 /, & 9 / , 6

& + 01 46 0 / ,6 Data Table (& 01). !

0 7 . ( . 5.11) & + . 0 + 0

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(Seasonally Adjusted), , & 38 7 1 01 01

638 . 0. ..

69

. 5.11. & 6&/ . ., .

. 5.12. 4 01 & 6 . 5 . 5 .

70