Figure 7. Aluminium demand change by value chain stage across scenarios in 2060

Notes: RTS = Reference Technology Scenario. CTS = Clean Technology Scenario. MEF = Material Efficiency variant.

While reductions in aluminium demand can be achieved at various stages in value chains, a large portion of these reductions is offset by increases in demand from lighter vehicles.

Energy and CO2 emissions

Improving material efficiency can help in achieving emissions reduction, by enabling more moderate deployment of other industry CO2 mitigation levers and by facilitating emissions reduction in other sectors.

In the Clean Technology Scenario, material efficiency assists industry in reducing industrial emissions from the Reference Technology Scenario, contributing approximately 20% of the total emissions reduction for steel, 70% for cement and 30% for aluminium. Material efficiency accounts for approximately 30% of the combined emissions reduction for these three materials in the Clean Technology Scenario in 2060.

Pushing material efficiency further in the Material Efficiency variant leads to more moderate deployment needs for low-carbon industrial process technologies to achieve the same industrial emissions reduction objectives as in the Clean Technology Scenario, particularly when these strategies lead to lower material demand levels. In 2060, the global average direct CO2 emissions intensity of steel production is 4% higher and that of cement is 7% higher in the Material Efficiency variant than in the Clean Technology Scenario, despite achieving the same level of CO2 emissions.

Conversely the global direct CO2 intensity of production of aluminium decreases in the Material Efficiency variant (by 9% in 2060), as the higher material demand requires greater uptake of emission abatement technologies to achieve the same overall emissions levels. This somewhat increased technological effort in the aluminium sector reduces deployment needs for other mitigation options in the transport sector, given that the higher aluminium demand is caused by vehicle lightweighting to reduce transport use-phase emissions.

Page | 12