4. Implications of deploying further material efficiency strategies

This chapter explores the potential and implications of boosting material efficiency, using scenarios. It builds on the long-term trends that emerge under current policy and technology ambitions in the Reference Technology Scenario (RTS) to explore the potential and implications of material efficiency in the Clean Technology Scenario (CTS), which aims at reducing global energy sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by almost 75% in 2060 compared to 2017 levels. The CTS embodies ambitious material efficiency strategies as an integral part of its emissions reduction strategies portfolio. Informed by literature analysis and expert judgement, the Material Efficiency variant (MEF) provides a what-if analysis that pushes material efficiency to its practical limit beyond that already occurring in the CTS for three key energy and emissionsintensive materials: steel, cement and aluminium.

Strategies pushed further in the MEF are those considered significantly more challenging to realise in terms of requiring greater efforts from stakeholders. They are applied at levels that are highly ambitious given real-world technical, political and behavioural constraints. Yet the MEF is an achievable strategy if pursued ambitiously and comprehensively. Material efficiency strategies can lead to reduced or increased material demand depending on the particular case. However, in all cases, they lead to lower overall CO2 emissions across the relevant value chain.

This analysis includes deep dives on two main value chains that contribute to a substantial portion of material demand: buildings construction and vehicles (focusing on cars and trucks). These value chains together account for approximately one-half of today’s demand for steel, one-half for cement and one-quarter for aluminium. To understand how material demand may deviate from historical trends, the analysis involved developing material demand estimates for the value chains of focus using data on activity levels and material intensities (material consumption per application), which is referred to as bottom-up methodology. Annex III provides additional information on the method and assumptions.

The CTS already pursues material efficiency strategies in the design and product fabrication and construction phases for the buildings and vehicles supply chains, as well as improved manufacturing yields, clinker substitution in cement production, and improved reuse and recycling rates across all applications. Many of these strategies are pursued to a greater extent in the MEF (Table 1). The CTS includes activity shifts that occur due to pursuing use-phase emissions reduction, including lifetime extension resulting from investment in energy efficiency improvements in buildings and reduced vehicle sales resulting from modal shifting to reduce transport emissions. Semi-manufacturing and product manufacturing yields, clinker substitution and recycling rates are also improved in the CTS, relative to the RTS, spurred on by efforts to reduce the emissions intensity of materials production. Strategies deployed to a considerably greater extent in the MEF include those that require substantial additional regulatory efforts, stakeholder co-ordination, value chain integration, investment, training, shifts in business practices or behavioural change. These include incorporating material efficiency considerations into the design and construction of buildings, vehicle lightweighting and increased metals reuse.

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Table 1. Differences in strategies affecting steel, cement and aluminium demand by scenario

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