3. Enabling strategies to move towards more sustainable material use

With expected population and economic growth over the coming decades, the Reference Technology Scenario (RTS) sees world demand for steel grow by approximately 30%, cement by 10% and aluminium by about 75% through to 2060, relative to 2017 levels.4 The expected future trends differ from observed trends in the past two decades, which saw large increases in cement and steel demand, primarily due to rapid growth in the People’s Republic of China (“China”).

While a substantial portion of the growth in material production was necessary to facilitate infrastructure development and subsequently economic growth, the rise in production capacity was higher than the growth in domestic demand. This resulted in overcapacity and lowered utilisation rates, particularly for cement, which has a limited potential for trade. The growth in cement and steel production in China is now levelling off. It is predicted that economic development in other regions will result in more moderate growth in demand for cement and steel. Expected shifts in applications (e.g. lightweighting of vehicles under current trends and growth in consumption of electric devices) may result in considerable increases in aluminium demand. Together, the increasing future material demand trajectories pose challenges for sustainability.

Materials demand and production need to be managed to reduce the impact on natural resources, air, water and the climate. Reducing the impact of materials is the foundation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 12: ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns (United Nations General Assembly, 2015). The goal includes a target (target 12.2) to achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources by 2030. This is measured in terms of the material footprint, which is the amount of primary materials needed to meet a country’s needs, and domestic material consumption, which is the amount of natural resources used in economic processes. The goal also aims to substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse (target 12.5). However, economic development is also needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. As the preceding chapter has shown, material demand and its associated effects have historically coincided with economic growth. Thus, there is a need to decouple economic growth from a combination of demand for materials and the environmental impact of materials production, to enable achievement of development objectives while ensuring sustainability.

The environmental impact of materials depends on the impact per unit of material produced and the quantity of materials consumed. Looking specifically at carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the emissions per unit of material can be reduced by improving the production processes of a given material. This includes switching to lower-carbon fuels, improving energy efficiency and shifting to innovative low-carbon production processes, or switching to different materials with lower production emissions. The quantity of material demanded can be reduced by employing various material efficiency strategies, which aim to lower material consumption without reducing the quantity or quality of services provided. Other factors, such as technological shifts to help mitigate climate change, can also affect the quantity of materials demanded. Thus, the

4 RTS material demand projections are based on historical demand trends, observed material demand saturation levels, and population and gross domestic product projections.

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