Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities

Ukraine is a significant global player in the soft commodities market, responsible for 2.4% of grain production and 2.9% of oilseed production. Ukraine’s share in global trade is higher than its slice of production: Ukraine is expected to export 8.0% of total grains in 2011/12, 3.2% of oilseeds, 13.5% of oil made from oilseeds (all based on USDA projections for the 2011/12 marketing year).

Share in global production		Share in global export
Source: USDA projections for 2011/12, Concorde Capital calculations		Source: USDA projections for 2011/12, Concorde Capital calculations

Agriculture value added % of GDP		Agriculture value added USD’ 000/worker, 2009
Source: FAO		Source: FAO

Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export

For the last five years, Ukraine has harvested 29-56 mmt of grains per season, out of which 25-26 mmt was consumed locally, with remaining going to export through Black Sea ports. Corn, wheat and barley are key grains for export, with volumes depending on the amount of grain supply in excess of local demand.

Ukraine`s production and export, mmt Wheat		Corn		Barley
Source: USDA		Source: USDA		Source: USDA

In oilseeds, Ukraine’s focus is on producing sunflower seed, about 7-9 mmt of which is produced per annum and 90%-95% of which is processed domestically and exported in oil & meal form – Ukraine accounts for about a half of the global trade in sunflower oil. Rapeseed is the second most-important oilseed, with 1-2 mmt directed to export in seed form; and soybean is third, with 1-2 mmt per annum production, utilized both locally and for export.

Sunflower oilseed, mmt		Sunflower oil, mmt
Rapeseed, mmt		Soybean, mmt
Source: USDA

Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally

Ukraine has 41.3 mln ha of agricultural area, according to FAO, which equals 68% of the total country’s surface, one of the highest shares globally. Of Ukraine’s total agricultural area, 79% is arable (32.5 mln ha), which gives Ukraine the #8 largest arable land bank in the world. 95% of Ukraine’s surface is essentially flat.

Unlike its peers, most of Ukrainian agricultural land is already arable. While the conversion of pastures to arable land is feasible (and is a key growth area in Brazil), CapEx associated with that is significant and the total economic effect of conversion is positive only at high soft commodity prices.

Countries with the largest arable landbank, ths sq km		Agricultural land structure
Source: FAO		Source: FAO