- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
Crop |
Sowing time |
Harvesting time |
Common selling time |
Winter wheat |
August – October 2011 |
June – August 2012 |
July 2012 – June 2013 |
Winter barley |
August – October 2011 |
June – August 2012 |
July 2012 – June 2013 |
Rapeseed |
August – October 2011 |
June – August 2012 |
July 2012 – August 2012 |
Spring wheat |
March – April 2012 |
July – August 2012 |
July 2012 – June 2013 |
Spring barley |
March – April 2012 |
July – August 2012 |
July 2012 – June 2013 |
Corn |
March – April 2012 |
September 2012 – December 2012* |
September 2012 – July 2013 |
Sunflower |
March – April 2012 |
September – November 2012 |
September 2012 – July 2013 |
Soybean |
March – April 2012 |
September – November 2012 |
September 2012 – December 2012 |
Sugar beets |
March – April 2012 |
September – November 2012 |
September 2012 – December 2012 |
Potatoes |
March – May 2012 |
July – August 2012 |
July 2012 – December 2012 (low price), January 2013 – June 2013 (high price, storage required) |
* Could be harvested up to next sowing. Source: Concorde Capital
Appendix
Arable land, net of fallow
Corn
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Wheat
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Barley
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Sunflower
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Soybean
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Rapeseed
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Sugar beets
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
Analyst certification
I, Yegor Samusenko, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Company: Rating history |
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Date |
12M target price, USD |
Market price, USD |
Rating |
Action |
Date |
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Xx xxxx xxx |
xx.x |
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xx.x |
xx.x |
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Xxxxxxxxxxxx |
xx.x |
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xx.x |
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xx.x |
Source: Concorde Capital |
Company: Target price vs. share performance, USD per share |
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Covered by Vitaly Gorovoy since April 2011 Source: Bloomberg, Concorde Capital |