| Research
|
Large-scale farming
Ukraine vs. Argentina, Brazil and Russia
Yegor Samusenko │ syg@concorde.com.ua | +380 44 391 5577 |
Alexander Paraschiy │ ap@concorde.com.ua│ +380 44 391 5577 |
Contents
Investment Case 11
Stock data 14
Key metrics 15
Per ha comparison 16
Management credibility 17
Summary 20
Ukraine in global context 22
Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities 22
Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export 23
Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally 24
Key inputs used in crop farming 26
Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture 26
Machinery use far below developed countries 27
Land trade moratorium makes more benefits 27
Fertilizer use 28
Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage 29
Farming Efficiency 31
Ukrainian crop yields lag the EU and US, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s 31
Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level 32
Growth 33
Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase 33
Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures 34
Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook 35
Valuation summary 37
Asset-based valuation 38
Location matters: Value of land by region 39
Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region 40
10% 40
40
36% 40
-18% 40
-5% 40
24% 40
40
30% 40
8% 40
3% 40
40
22% 40
21% 40
30% 40
-2% 40
-11% 40
16% 40
18% 40
19% 40
2% 40
40
28% 40
40
45% 40
59% 40
40
40% 40
40
Cost efficiency 41
Adding supplementary businesses 42
DCF 44
Model assumptions 45
100 45
142 45
158 45
175 45
179 45
182 45
186 45
189 45
193 45
197 45
201 45
205 45
117 45
150 45
142 45
167 45
170 45
173 45
177 45
180 45
184 45
188 45
191 45
195 45
79 45
158 45
154 45
167 45
170 45
173 45
177 45
180 45
184 45
188 45
191 45
195 45
285 45
358 45
429 45
486 45
496 45
505 45
516 45
526 45
536 45
547 45
558 45
569 45
350 45
333 45
317 45
398 45
405 45
414 45
422 45
430 45
439 45
448 45
457 45
466 45
288 45
442 45
358 45
442 45
451 45
460 45
469 45
478 45
488 45
497 45
507 45
517 45
45 45
40 45
41 45
42 45
42 45
43 45
44 45
45 45
46 45
47 45
Risks 48
Agroton 50
Investment case 53
Valuation 56
14 56
13 56
15 56
16 56
17 56
18 56
20 56
21 56
23 56
25 56
Operating assumptions 57
11.9 57
41.6 57
22.1 57
21.7 57
24.4 57
25.9 57
27.4 57
29.2 57
31.0 57
33.0 57
35.0 57
37.2 57
0.5 57
(0.5) 57
2.6 57
2.8 57
2.9 57
3.0 57
3.1 57
3.2 57
3.3 57
3.4 57
3.5 57
3.6 57
(0.2) 57
0.9 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
- 57
Financials 59
(2) 60
1 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
- 60
Agroton in six charts 61
Operati 61
Industrial Milk Company 62
Investment case 64
50% 65
46% 65
57% 65
49% 65
Valuation 66
26 66
32 66
34 66
40 66
40 66
41 66
43 66
45 66
48 66
50 66
Operating assumptions 67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
Financials 68
Charts 70
KSG Agro 71
Investment Case 73
Valuation 76
10 76
13 76
18 76
21 76
22 76
24 76
25 76
26 76
27 76
29 76
Operating assumptions 77
Financials 78
KSG Agro in six charts 80
MCB Agricole 81
Investment Case 82
Valuation 84
4 84
3 84
3 84
4 84
4 84
4 84
5 84
6 84
6 84
7 84
Operating assumptions 85
0.0 85
0.0 85
1.3 85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
Financials 86
MCB Agricole in six charts 88
Mriya 89
Investment Case 91
Valuation 94
116 94
134 94
155 94
180 94
193 94
203 94
213 94
224 94
235 94
246 94
Operating assumptions 95
61.8 95
85.0 95
99.0 95
143.9 95
125.0 95
144.8 95
167.1 95
194.2 95
207.6 95
218.6 95
229.5 95
240.8 95
252.5 95
264.7 95
Financials 96
Mriya in six charts 97
Sintal Agriculture 99
Investment Case 102
Valuation 104
8.2 104
15.0 104
13.7 104
15.7 104
16.9 104
17.9 104
19.0 104
20.2 104
21.4 104
22.6 104
Operating assumptions 105
Financials 106
Sintal Agriculture in six charts 107
Astarta 108
Kernel 109
MHP 110
Appendices 111
Land value 111
Biological asset revaluation 114
Appendix: Crop production schedule 117
Appendix 118
Analyst certification 123