Soviets once more showed they were willing to work with the West

So which way would the relaxation of tensions take next. One potential issue in the relaxation of relations between the two sides, despite Gorbachev’s insistent moves to work with the West was the election of a new US president in January 1989, George Bush senior. Reagan and Gorbachev had worked together very well, what would Bush bring to the table.

Bush was a very different figure to Reagan, Reagan was all about charisma and public relations, Bush was cautious and pragmatic. Was initially critical of Reagan’s anti-Sovietism and his eventual enthusiastic support of Gorbachev. Initial position of Bush to the Soviet Union was ‘hope tempered by scepticism’. This could be seen by his statement just after the Reagan-G Moscow summit that the Cold War was not over – there were still many issues to discuss.

Bush in his inaugural stated that he was open to good relations with Moscow but he was cautious

Annouced a three month review of international issues – very different to the kind of diplomacy that Reagan espoused. – Press believed he was wasting time.

His Secretary of State James Baker only visited Moscow in May 1989 five months after Bush’s election – Brent Scowcroft (NSA) stated that the cold war was not over – success in the third world due to Soviet failure of policies rather than a general change od attitude (sic!).

Review stated that Gorbachev was best person to work with but future uncertain, could G stabilise and improve the Soviet economy?

G continues to lead PR effort – statements thaty Soviets would make unilateral cuts in nuclear weapons arsenal.

Bush May 1989 – agrees to a 10% cut in NATO troops.

Important Bush speech in May 1989 – open skies proposal – open trade between the two countries – objective to welcome the Soviet Union back into the world order – 9important speech.

Bush policy to test Gorbachev and hold him to his word regarding his promises. Discussions from mid-1989 regarding a summit, Soviet by then had agreed to delink Start to SDI, dismantle Krasnoyarsk radar.a

December 1989 summit in Malta – no concrete agreements but discussions of arms, trade and regional problems – by this time Eastern Europe had toppled its Communist regimes – Cold War seemed to be over for good. So Bush had moved towards a more trusting position to Gorbachev as he had kept to his word.

After this breakthrough regarding Bush’s trust of Gorbachev, Bush moved to actively support Gorbachev as he was worried that the quick pace of change in Eastern Europe and at home could take Gorbachev out of power – and G seemed to be the best person to work with in Soviet Union

Bush took a calm, pragmatic position during the momentous events at the turn of the 1980s/1990s. As Eastern Europe freed itself from Communist rule Bush wasn’t triumphalist, did not make grandiose statements. He did not attack Gorbachev and the Soviet Union, they just watched as things occurred.

German reunification – did not provoke during the move towards reunification of Germany which occurred in late 1990. After the wall fell Bush, whilst supporting Unification of East and West Germany was careful to work with Gorbachev during the process as he did not want to increase G’s domestic problems.

After the fall of the wall Bush continued to support Gorbachev but was more and more sure that Yeltsin would replace Gorbachev – summit in May-June 1990

At the end of 1990 with Gorbachev’s position in the USSR under attack – Bush promised to give the USSR food aid to ease the problems regarding the loss of Eastern Europe

Good relations between the two leaders in 1991 as well with Gorbachev invited to the G-7 summit in July 1991 – Start I signed - The treaty barred its signatories from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads atop a total of 1,600 ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. So the working relationship from a shaky start moved to a good working relationship.

So now let’s look at the events which really saw the collapse of Soviet power and eventually to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Firstly let’s look at the end of Communism in Eastern Europe. We have seen how Gorbachev was unwilling to use force in Eastern Europe and was basically supportive of perestroika and glasnost in Eastern Europe, to match his beliefs in the Soviet Union. This was characterised by the Sinatra Doctrine that countries could go their own way.

Communist regimes in the regime were already weak before the coming to power of Gorbachev. There was a lack of popular support for Communism in the region and this had in general been the case since the imposition of Communism in 1945. Especially in Poland and in Romania but also in other Eastern European countries the Red Army had been the key force which had allowed the existence of Communism in the region. In addition in the region, apart from maybe Czechoslovakia, communism had few local roots. Indeed in the case of Poland and hungary most of the two countries identities had been based on opposition to socialism (in the inter-war period).

In addition the reforms in the region that Soviet supported local communists had introduced since 1945 had failed to deliver the same levels of wealth, health, education and social provision that had been provided in the West (escaping from East Berlin to West Berlin in the 1950s).

Gorbachev’s lack of will to intervene + lack of public support + G’s support for reform movements in the countries added up to a potent cocktail which brought about the speedy end of Communism in the region

As mentioned here – Gorbachev supported reform in countries, reformers started to move against Communism itself. IN late 1989 when the crisis hit its peak G refused to use aggressive intervention – would risk his good reputation in the West. Communist regimes lack of legitimacy from the public and lack of power – lack of support from Moscow – Red Army. G blamed for the loss of Eastern Europe.

So let’s look at the events across a number of countries – First of all let’s look at the situation in Poland and Hungary. Poland, centre in the 1980s of the most firm anti-communist movement with Solidarity, repressed during Martial law (30 year anniversary was this week). Solidarity continues underground, Poland heavily indebted to the West. Jaruzelski reforms – decentralisation of decision making 1987 and moves towards multi-candidate elections (referendum planned 1988). Strikes across the country – February 1989 round table talks – Solidarity, Church and the Communists. Solidarity legalised – June 1989 first almost free elections in the Communist bloc. Communists beaten soundly – non-communist prime minister appointed – Tadeusz Mazowiecki. Non-communist government in the Warsaw pact. Gorbachev accepts these moves without problems- Poland freed.

Hungary – you remember there had been liberalisation in the 1970s and early 1980s in Hungary, decentralisation etc, provate ownership in some areas. Hungary continued to be in debt. Multi-candidate elections 1983, some independent candidates 1985. Opposition groups tolerated. Imre Nagy reburied June 1989, free parliamentary elections in early 1990. Gorbachev again accepts this

East Germany – moves towards the fall of the Berlin wall – thousands of East Germans move to West Germany in mid-1989 as Hungary opens its borders with Austria. East Germany resistant to reform but way less income in the East compared to the West – 10,000 cross the border in September 1989.

Gorbachev to Berlin October 1989 – due to instability – worries about a crackdown. States that Hoenecker (communist leader) should respond to public opinion – would be now intervention. Demonstrations across the country against the Communists – reforms – H goes and November 9 – freedom to travel agreed. Opening of the wall and discussions of German reunification.

Bulgaria affected by the instability – Todor Zhivkov Soviet loyalist since the 1960s kicked out of power in November 1989 by moderate Communists in Bulgaria. Free elections were run and contested in June 1990 – negotiated revolution.

Czechoslovakia – Hard line government under Husak in cz. G tries to get him to reform – cabinet resigns 24 November – mass demonstrations – general strike 27 November – end of Communism 29 November. By the end of 1989 most famous dissident Vaclav Havel was president.

Only country with violence was Romania – détente foreign policy under ceaucescu, but repressive policy at home. Victimised Hungairan minority. December 1989 – West turns against Ceacescu – as do Gorbachev, the army and Communists in Romania – repression by Romanian security police, violence – eventually the army captured and executed him on 25 December 1989.

Communism within the space of 1 year had been wiped from the face of Eastern Europe – although ex-communists important in the new order

So with the fall of the Berlin wall, the issue of German reunification was opened up once more. We remember from 1945-1960 there were intense discussions and disagreements over German reunification with both sides on East and West wanting different things. From 1961 the issue had been calmed by the Berlin wall but during the Ostpolitik policy Willy Brandt had talked of the self-determination of the Germany people and détente policies from the West had been partly aimed at bringing about the reunification of Germany.

Opening of the Berlin wall brought the issue back to the surface again

Evem before the opening of the wall nationalist opinion in West Germany had sought reunification, West German Basic law made it easy for East German provinces to accede to West Germany.

But the issue was a difficult one due to the strategic position of Germany, its size and historic importance – would not be that simple – Britain and France worried about the return of a strong, reunited Germany.

Confusion initially after the fall of the wall – discussion over reunification but some voices in the East wanted to reform their own country. Left West Germans fear a return of German nationalism after unification.

But clear popular support for unification – 70% of West Germans in favour of it, East German state was collapsing – thousands and thousands leaving the country.