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Crack the Case. D. Ohrvall

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Houdini Pretzel

I

Handout Guide

Pack: 009 page 10 of 28

12 Month Price Trend

Unit Volume Past 2 Years

Revenue and Gross Margin (in US$)

Units Sold (in Millions)

$2.0

9M

A

8

 

1.9

 

7

 

1.8

 

6

 

1.7

1.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

Jun

 

Jul

Aug

Sep

 

Oct

Nov

Dec

 

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

02

02

02

02

02

02

02

03

03

03

03

03

 

Candidate: Do you have any pricing data? Interviewer: Here’s some unit volume and price

data for the past 2 years. What trend do you see?

Main Insight: As private label prices declined, total Houdini sales volume also declined. Also, relative to last year, volume is down considerably. Prices for both Houdini and Smith’s have remained stable.

Candidate got the insight?:

 

Yes

 

No

 

 

Houdini Minus Private Label

 

 

 

Gap in Cents

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.30¢

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B

0.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.20

.20

.21

.21

.21

 

 

 

 

 

 

.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.15

 

.13

 

 

.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.12

.12

.12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.05

Gap

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.00

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

 

 

 

 

02

02

02

02

02

02

02

03

03

03

03

03

Month

 

 

Houdini Unit Sales

 

 

 

May 03

 

 

 

 

-0.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr 03

 

 

 

 

 

-0.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar 03

 

 

 

 

 

-0.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 03

 

 

 

 

 

-0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 03

 

 

 

 

 

-0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 02

 

 

 

 

 

-0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 02

 

 

 

 

 

-0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oct 02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-0.1

 

 

 

 

Sep 02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-0.1

 

 

 

 

Aug 02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.1

 

 

 

Jul 02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-0.1

 

 

 

 

Jun 02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.1

 

 

 

-0.8

 

-0.6

 

 

-0.4

 

-0.2

 

-0.0

 

0.2

C

 

Difference (This Year Minus Last Year) in Millions of Units

 

Post-implementation Utilization Change

(Utilization Points below 90% threshold)

Plant Name

Monthly Average

Plant 32 -5%

D

Plant 26

-1%

 

Plant 16

-3%

Plant 12

 

-4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plant 3

 

 

 

 

 

-2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Utilization Percentage Change in

Percentage Points

Candidate: Do you have Houdini prices vs. private label prices?

Interviewer: Here’s another way to look at the price gap (from slide A) between Houdini and the private label brands. What jumps out at you?

Main Insight: The gap increased for several months and then leveled off. The price gap correlates to the volume drop (slide A).

Candidate got the insight?:

 

Yes

 

No

Candidate: Do you have any more detail on the unit sales?

Interviewer: Here’s a detailed view of the volume on slide A. What’s the insight here?

Main Insight: Unit sales have been off consistently at the end of ’02 and into ’03. The volume drop corresponds to the increase in price gap between Houdini and the private label brands.

Candidate got the insight?:

 

Yes

 

No

Candidate: Do you have any plant utilization information?

Interviewer: Here is some utilization information by plant that you may want to review. How much is the loss? Why do you think the utilization rates went down?

Main Insight: 15 points x $50K = $750K x 8 months = $6M. Utilization rates fell because the new equipment was considerably more efficient.

Candidate got the insight?:

 

Yes

 

No

Purchase additional cases and the book Crack the Case: How to Conquer Your Case Interviews at www.consultingcase.com.

009 - Houdini Pretzel 10

Copyright © 2004 Turtle Hare Media

 

Houdini Pretzel

I

Pack: 009 page 19 of 28

Re-routers and Heavy Lifting

Re-routers

Questions To Keep Things On Track

Do you think there is a direct cause for the private label reduction in retail prices?

We know that the price drop is consistent for all private label.

We know that Houdini supplies almost 80% of all private label.

Cause and effect is likely.

Do you think that customers will behave in a consistent pattern?

Customers tend to change behavior when prices reach a certain level.

Food products are especially sensitive to these changes.

What additional data would you like to see?

How can you make your answer more quantitative?

What specific insight does this data give you?

Heavy Lifting

Questions To Make the Case More Difficult

How would you change your answer if grocery store chains decide to keep the retail prices at present lower levels despite increases in private label production costs?

We need to force the grocery chains to return pretzel prices to within 15¢ of the branded product. If the first production cost increase does not achieve it, we may have to increase their costs again.

This situation turns nasty. Several grocery chains threaten to drastically reduce shelf space unless Houdini continues the reduced production pricing. What would you do?

Play hard ball. There is no place for these grocery chains to turn if Houdini cuts them off. Plus, Houdini is the market leader so its products generate traffic and sales for the stores. This is most likely an empty threat, or one that is not data-driven. Such a move would hurt the stores in the long run.

Purchase additional cases and the book Crack the Case: How to Conquer Your Case Interviews at www.consultingcase.com.

009 - Houdini Pretzel 19

Copyright © 2004 Turtle Hare Media

 

Houdini Pretzel

I

Interviewer Feedback

Pack: 009 page 20 of 28

 

 

 

 

Excellent

 

 

 

 

Poor

 

Planning & Logic

1

2

3

4

5

6

 

1.

I understood your plan to solve this case.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very clear

 

 

Fuzzy

 

Not clear at all

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.

Your plan was MECE.

1

2

3

4

5

6

 

 

 

(Mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive)

No overlaps

 

 

 

Several overlaps

 

 

 

 

 

and gaps

 

 

 

and full of gaps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.

You trusted your plan and referred to it often.

1

2

3

4

5

6

 

 

 

 

 

Used it,

 

 

 

 

You basically

 

 

 

 

 

referred to it often

 

 

 

forgot about it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Communication & Composure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.

You were calm and collected.

1

2

3

4

5

6

 

 

 

 

 

Calm, confident

 

Off and on

 

Sweaty, shaky

 

 

 

 

 

and client ready

nervousness

 

mess

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.

You carried the discussion well.

1

2

3

4

5

6

 

 

 

 

 

Just the right

 

Occasionally

 

I’d avoid you

 

 

 

 

 

amount of back

 

awkward

 

at cocktail

 

 

 

 

 

and forth

 

 

 

 

parties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6. You drove the case.

12

Clearly in control, you took the case to a conclusion

3

4

5

6

You took control

 

Adrift at sea

sometimes, but

 

 

then let me drive

 

 

Analytics

7. You analyzed the data well on a piece by piece basis.

1

2

3

4

5

6

Quick to insights,

 

Slow on the

Lots of mistakes,

no math errors

 

uptake, some

 

you didn’t get

 

 

 

math mistakes

 

the insights

8. You integrated data well and reached insights (saw the big picture).

1

2

3

4

5

6

Quick to “connect

You missed

You missed all the

the dots” and see

 

some

linkages between

how it all ties

 

connections

 

the data

Recommendation

9. Your final recommendation was to the point and data driven.

1

2

3

4

5

6

Used facts and

 

 

You seemed to

data to back up

 

 

 

solve the case

your thoughts

 

 

 

from your gut

10. You were persuasive in making your final points.

1

2

3

4

5

6

Persuasive points,

 

 

You couldn’t even

passion and a

 

 

convince yourself,

bottom-line tone

 

 

 

zero passion

Total Score:

(10-60)

Before giving your score, have the candidate do the Self Assessment at the back of the case pack. What can you tell the candidate that will help him or her prioritize his prep going forward?

Purchase additional cases and the book Crack the Case: How to Conquer Your Case Interviews at www.consultingcase.com.

009 - Houdini Pretzel 20

Copyright © 2004 Turtle Hare Media

 

Houdini Pretzel

C

Pack: 009 page 21 of 28

Candidate Review Sheets

A Logical Flow Using the FRAME Method

A Logical Flow Using the FRAME Method

F- Form a Plan

Houdini is pretty sure it is losing branded share due to the private label’s drop in prices. What is not clear is the true cause of the problem and what Houdini can do to fight back.

If private label companies are able to lower prices, then Houdini may be able to do the same. If the private label companies are lowing prices due to price breaks from their manufacturer (namely Houdini and Smith’s), then perhaps Houdini can raise the cost of manufacturing. A good roadmap will get to the heart of this issue quickly.

MVM

Zone 5

S P E C I A L T

2

 

 

Zone 4

 

 

 

 

 

Zone 3

Fin

 

Zone 2

Org

 

 

Op

 

 

Zone 1

 

 

 

Strat

 

 

 

 

1

People .

 

R

Volume

CA$H

 

Price

 

3Systems Measure

C VariableFixed

D/E

 

Processes

MVM Roadmap: Here’s a path that will hit the key issues, in order of importance.

1.Start in Zone 2, Operations, Revenue. A quick review of volume and price will help Houdini assess the size of the problem.

Volume – When did the units start dropping off? Has it been sharp or gradual?

Price – How big is the price gap between Houdini and the private label companies? When did it change? Can it be correlated to the volume change?

2. Move to Zone 5, External Forces. Two areas needs to be explored.

Supplier – Houdini is the supplier to some of these private label brands. Has Houdini changed their relationship with these companies? How about the amount they charge?

Competitors – Houdini is a competitor of the grocery stores’ private label products. At the same time, Houdini needs the stores’ shelf space. What will happen if Houdini charges more to produce the PL products? How will Smith’s respond if Houdini raises prices?

3.Return to Zone 2, Price. Determine if Houdini can increase prices for the manufacturing of pretzels in its plants. If time permits, move to costs and determine if additional costs can be removed from the Houdini system. The cost reductions will shield Houdini from additional price decreases.

Purchase additional cases and the book Crack the Case: How to Conquer Your Case Interviews at www.consultingcase.com.

009 - Houdini Pretzel 21

Copyright © 2004 Turtle Hare Media

 

Houdini Pretzel

C

Pack: 009 page 22 of 28

 

 

Candidate Review Sheets

 

 

 

F- Form a Plan

Suggested Answers, Diagrams and Behaviors

Suggested Answers, Diagrams and Behaviors

 

“There are several issues I would like to explore: the drivers of the

 

revenue decrease, price and volume, and how they have changed over

 

time; external factors like suppliers and competitors to see if anything has

Good

changed. Together I think these issues will get to the bottom of the

problem. If we have time it would be good to also discuss any actions that

competitors are taking. I would like to start with revenue unless you would prefer me to begin elsewhere.”

(Very direct and clear about what path you want to take. I like how you framed the competitor discussion as a “nice to have”. You created a tone early in the case where I know I can redirect you. Good start.)

OK

Weak

“Since we’re talking about a loss in revenue I would like to start with volume and price. Let’s figure out where the problem is with these two variables and then discuss other issues as appropriate – like what the private label competitors are doing.

(Not a bad start. You covered the same topics as the Good answer but in a shorter way. I like how direct you are and how you understand that some issues may not be relevant later in the case. You could have mentioned costs and how they may be a factor in helping Houdini deal with this competitive threat.)

“With sales slipping Houdini needs to look at everything that impacts revenue: the sales force, store shelf space, prices, competitor share gains and of course volume. Do you have data on any of these.”

(Well thanks for the laundry list. We’ll have a lot, maybe too much, to discuss. I would appreciate a little more focus when you start the case and when you ask for data. But, you seem confident, so I’ll wait and see where this case is going.)

Self Check

 

MECE (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive)

 

Natural, not memorized

 

Bottom line tone

 

Hits upon key issues

 

Clarifies if necessary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fluent, not stammering

 

Open to redirection

 

Clearly driving the case

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Purchase additional cases and the book Crack the Case: How to Conquer Your Case Interviews at www.consultingcase.com.

009 - Houdini Pretzel 22

Copyright © 2004 Turtle Hare Media

 

Houdini Pretzel

C

Candidate Review Sheets

Pack: 009 page 23 of 28

A Logical Flow Using the FRAME MethodA Logical Flow Using the FRAME Method

R - Read the Audience

Interviewer: Play the Silent Partner role and see how t qhe candidate responds. Give data when asked but do not overwhelm him with additional facts or “free” information. Silence is an excellent test to read the candidate’s confidence and ability to stay calm.

SuggestedSuggestedAnswers,Answers,DiagramsDiagramsandandBehaviorsBehaviors

Good Reactions/ Body Language:

Firm, dry handshake, leaning slightly forward

High energy

Consistent eye contact during the introduction

Warm smile, worn most of the time

Relaxed manner in small talk and getting situated

“Ready to talk” body language, sitting on the front half of the chair, eager to discuss the case

Strong confident voice

Average Reactions/ Body Language:

Half-hearted handshake

Average energy

Frequently breaks eye contact (indicates nervousness or insecurity)

Forced smile

A little tense and awkward in getting set up

Moving around a lot in the chair, leaning or sitting back too far, indicating disinterest or laziness

Shaky voice at times

Poor Reactions/ Body Language:

Soft, weak or moist handshake

Low energy

Little to no eye contact

No smile

Awkward conversation; palpable tension

Sitting completely in the back of the chair; slumping over the desk; putting arms on knees in the football coach position

Nervous or weak voice

Self Check

 

Firm, dry handshake

 

Attentive listener

 

Good sense of humor

 

Consistent eye contact

 

Friendly, warm smile

 

Fluent with small talk

 

 

 

 

 

 

High energy but calm

 

Engaging

 

Strong confident voice

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Purchase additional cases and the book Crack the Case: How to Conquer Your Case Interviews at www.consultingcase.com.

009 - Houdini Pretzel 23

Copyright © 2004 Turtle Hare Media

 

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