- •Brief Contents
- •Contents
- •Preface
- •Who Should Use this Book
- •Philosophy
- •A Short Word on Experiments
- •Acknowledgments
- •Rational Choice Theory and Rational Modeling
- •Rationality and Demand Curves
- •Bounded Rationality and Model Types
- •References
- •Rational Choice with Fixed and Marginal Costs
- •Fixed versus Sunk Costs
- •The Sunk Cost Fallacy
- •Theory and Reactions to Sunk Cost
- •History and Notes
- •Rational Explanations for the Sunk Cost Fallacy
- •Transaction Utility and Flat-Rate Bias
- •Procedural Explanations for Flat-Rate Bias
- •Rational Explanations for Flat-Rate Bias
- •History and Notes
- •Theory and Reference-Dependent Preferences
- •Rational Choice with Income from Varying Sources
- •The Theory of Mental Accounting
- •Budgeting and Consumption Bundles
- •Accounts, Integrating, or Segregating
- •Payment Decoupling, Prepurchase, and Credit Card Purchases
- •Investments and Opening and Closing Accounts
- •Reference Points and Indifference Curves
- •Rational Choice, Temptation and Gifts versus Cash
- •Budgets, Accounts, Temptation, and Gifts
- •Rational Choice over Time
- •References
- •Rational Choice and Default Options
- •Rational Explanations of the Status Quo Bias
- •History and Notes
- •Reference Points, Indifference Curves, and the Consumer Problem
- •An Evolutionary Explanation for Loss Aversion
- •Rational Choice and Getting and Giving Up Goods
- •Loss Aversion and the Endowment Effect
- •Rational Explanations for the Endowment Effect
- •History and Notes
- •Thought Questions
- •Rational Bidding in Auctions
- •Procedural Explanations for Overbidding
- •Levels of Rationality
- •Bidding Heuristics and Transparency
- •Rational Bidding under Dutch and First-Price Auctions
- •History and Notes
- •Rational Prices in English, Dutch, and First-Price Auctions
- •Auction with Uncertainty
- •Rational Bidding under Uncertainty
- •History and Notes
- •References
- •Multiple Rational Choice with Certainty and Uncertainty
- •The Portfolio Problem
- •Narrow versus Broad Bracketing
- •Bracketing the Portfolio Problem
- •More than the Sum of Its Parts
- •The Utility Function and Risk Aversion
- •Bracketing and Variety
- •Rational Bracketing for Variety
- •Changing Preferences, Adding Up, and Choice Bracketing
- •Addiction and Melioration
- •Narrow Bracketing and Motivation
- •Behavioral Bracketing
- •History and Notes
- •Rational Explanations for Bracketing Behavior
- •Statistical Inference and Information
- •Calibration Exercises
- •Representativeness
- •Conjunction Bias
- •The Law of Small Numbers
- •Conservatism versus Representativeness
- •Availability Heuristic
- •Bias, Bigotry, and Availability
- •History and Notes
- •References
- •Rational Information Search
- •Risk Aversion and Production
- •Self-Serving Bias
- •Is Bad Information Bad?
- •History and Notes
- •Thought Questions
- •Rational Decision under Risk
- •Independence and Rational Decision under Risk
- •Allowing Violations of Independence
- •The Shape of Indifference Curves
- •Evidence on the Shape of Probability Weights
- •Probability Weights without Preferences for the Inferior
- •History and Notes
- •Thought Questions
- •Risk Aversion, Risk Loving, and Loss Aversion
- •Prospect Theory
- •Prospect Theory and Indifference Curves
- •Does Prospect Theory Solve the Whole Problem?
- •Prospect Theory and Risk Aversion in Small Gambles
- •History and Notes
- •References
- •The Standard Models of Intertemporal Choice
- •Making Decisions for Our Future Self
- •Projection Bias and Addiction
- •The Role of Emotions and Visceral Factors in Choice
- •Modeling the Hot–Cold Empathy Gap
- •Hindsight Bias and the Curse of Knowledge
- •History and Notes
- •Thought Questions
- •The Fully Additive Model
- •Discounting in Continuous Time
- •Why Would Discounting Be Stable?
- •Naïve Hyperbolic Discounting
- •Naïve Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting
- •The Common Difference Effect
- •The Absolute Magnitude Effect
- •History and Notes
- •References
- •Rationality and the Possibility of Committing
- •Commitment under Time Inconsistency
- •Choosing When to Do It
- •Of Sophisticates and Naïfs
- •Uncommitting
- •History and Notes
- •Thought Questions
- •Rationality and Altruism
- •Public Goods Provision and Altruistic Behavior
- •History and Notes
- •Thought Questions
- •Inequity Aversion
- •Holding Firms Accountable in a Competitive Marketplace
- •Fairness
- •Kindness Functions
- •Psychological Games
- •History and Notes
- •References
- •Of Trust and Trustworthiness
- •Trust in the Marketplace
- •Trust and Distrust
- •Reciprocity
- •History and Notes
- •References
- •Glossary
- •Index
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R E F E R E N C E S
Falk, A., E. Fehr, and U. Fischbacher. “On the Nature of Fair Behavior.” Economic Inquiry 41(2003): 20–26.
Fehr, E., and S. Gächter. “Fairness and Retaliation: The Economics of Reciprocity.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14(2000): 159–181.
Fehr, E., S. Gächter, and G. Kirschsteiger. “Reciprocity as a Contract Enforcement Device.” Econometrica 65(1997): 833–860.
Fehr, E., and K.M. Schmidt. “A Theory of Fairness, Competition and Cooperation.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(1999): 817–868.
Geanakoplos, J., D. Pearce, and E. Stacchetti. “Psychological Games and Sequential Rationality.” Games and Economic Behavior 1 (1989): 60–79.
Güth, W., R. Schmittberger, and B. Schwarze. “An Experimental Analysis of Ultimatum Bargaining.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 3(1982): 367–388.
Kahneman, D., J.L. Knetsch, and R. Thaler. “Fairness as a Constraint on Profit Seeking: Entitlements in the Market.” American Economic Review 76(1986): 728–741.
Kahneman, D., J.L. Knetsch, and R. Thaler. “Fairness and the Assumptions of Economics.” Journal of Business 59(1986): S285–S300.
Rabin, M. “Incorporating Fairness into Game Theory and Economics.” American Economic Review 83(1993): 1281–1302.
Roth, A.E., and J.K. Murnighan. “The Role of Information in Bargaining: An Experimental Study.” Econometrica 50(1982): 1123–1142.
16 Trust and Reciprocity
We often hear the repeated warning to be on constant guard for identity thieves—those who would use our personal information to steal money or credit from us. We should check our credit records regularly, not give out important numbers such as our Social Security number, and use only wired and secure Internet connections to conduct financial transactions. Almost 60 percent of Americans describe identity theft as a major worry. This is almost identical to the percentage who actually bank online. Some people go to great lengths to ensure that they are not exposed to identity theft: Some buy a special computer for online transactions, some use temporary credit account numbers for online transactions, some go so far as to not transact online at all. More than 50 million Americans use some form of credit-monitoring service to alert them in the case of identity theft. Such steps are sometimes taken at great cost, reflecting a real suspicion that someone is scheming to obtain their information.
Millions of people fall prey to identity theft every year, and the overall level of distrust for all things Internet may seem justified. Yet only about 10 percent of identity theft occurs through some form of Internet-based transaction. Overwhelmingly, identity theft occurs through misplaced or erroneously delivered paperwork or lost wallets. Almost half of those victimized by identity theft have a prior personal relationship with the person who victimized them. In many cases, a family member has successfully stolen their identity using their access to confidential financial records. Children have stolen parent’s identities, and parents have stolen children’s identities. However, without trusting our own family, family life would be transformed into something quite foreign and unpleasant. Few could imagine locking up wallets, keys, and other valuable items to prevent parents or siblings from stealing. For most, these relationships define trust, and they constitute some of the only people with whom we can be completely candid.
Even beyond our own family, a majority of our economic decisions depend on trust. In many cases, we must rely on others to provide us with information that may be tainted by their own motive. For example, given our lack of training in the medical field, we must rely on physicians to diagnose our illnesses. But some diagnoses may be more profitable for the physician (e.g., if they require regular follow-up visits). Similarly, a mechanic might lead us to believe some unnecessary work should be done on our car in order to maintain proper functioning if we are not as knowledgeable as the mechanic is. How we respond to a doctor’s diagnosis or a mechanic’s recommendation often hinges on whether we trust that they are being honest with us. Whenever we go to a restaurant, we must trust that the server will only
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use our credit card to charge the meal we have just eaten and will not steal the numbers for unauthorized uses. Without full trust in these situations, life would become more costly and less convenient. But why do we feel we can trust some mechanics?
Certainly there may be some motive for a mechanic to generate a reputation as being trustworthy. However, we must also acknowledge that a mechanic acting strictly as a selfish and rational actor would seek to take advantage of our lack of knowledge to some extent. Moreover, we must consider how easy it would be for the server to steal credit card numbers on a regular basis and take small amounts from customers with little chance of detection. Beyond this, the restaurant must trust that we not only have the means to pay when they first serve us the food but that we also intend to pay. Without a basic level of trust, economic transactions become costly, and some transactions will not take place.
In this chapter, we examine human behavior related to trust from a behavioral economics perspective. Trust is inherent in economic transactions. Yet in many cases, trust is a public good, and one for which private motives to be trustworthy should be minimal. Yet because both trust and trustworthiness exist and are widespread, we are all better off. This trust allows us substantial savings and increases our ability to conduct economic transactions as well as to conduct rewarding social interactions. Much of the literature on trust is closely related to the literature on fairness and altruism. We will emphasize this relationship.
EXAMPLE 16.1 Trust Relationships
Given the prominence of trust in our observed relationships, it is fair to question whether trust is a natural trait in human behavior, and if so how it came to be so. Observing trust, however, is not as easily accomplished as observing some of the other social preferences we have discussed. Fairness and altruism can be observed in a single choice or a set of choices that all occur at one point in time. However, to observe trust requires observing different players making a set of decisions that occur at different points in time. For example, we need to observe first the decision of the restaurant patron to be willing to give the server the credit card, then the server having the opportunity to either be honest or to steal the card number. For our purposes, we define trust as referring to a person’s willingness to place others in a position to make decisions that could either help or harm the person.
The canonical experiment used to measure trust was originally proposed and conducted by Joyce Berg, John Dickhaut, and Kevin McCabe. They designed an experiment in which participants were randomly assigned to one of two rooms. All the subjects were given $10. Those in Room A were told they could take any portion of their $10 and send it to a random and anonymous recipient in Room B; we refer to a person in Room A as a sender. Whatever money is sent to Room B is tripled. The people they were paired with, the receivers, could then decide to send back whatever portion of that money they wished. We refer to this as a trust game.
Let us first examine the Nash equilibrium of this game assuming selfish actors. Suppose that the sender sends $x to the receiver. The receiver must then find the split of $3x that maximizes their own utility. A selfish receiver will choose to take $3x, leaving nothing for the sender. A selfish sender will choose to send $0 no matter how much is
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FIGURE 16.1 Behavior in the Trust Game
Source: Berg, J., J. Dickhaut, and K. McCabe. “Trust, Reciprocity and Social History.” Games and Economic Behavior
10(1995): 122–142.
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sent back to the sender. Thus, in the Nash equilibrium, each player goes home with $10, and no money is sent. Because there are only two stages in this game, it is not possible for trust to develop as a result of repeated interactions and reputation (as in the Take-It- Or-Leave-It game presented in Chapter 14).
The results are pictured in Figure 16.1. Of 32 senders, 30 sent some amount of their $10 to Room B. On average, they sent $5.16, with the modal choice (six chose it) being $5. Nearly as many (five) chose to send the entire $10 to Room B.
In the terminology of this chapter, almost all of the senders trusted the receivers. All but two decided it was worthwhile to send some of their money to their counterpart even though the receiver could decide to just take all of the money sent. The sender’s trust was not always justified. In fact, 17 of the receivers who received some positive amount of money decided to send back less than the sender had originally sent. Eleven decided to send back more than they received. Six decided to send back nothing. On average, receivers returned only $4.66, somewhat less than the $5.16 that was sent to them. Thus,
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although senders were inclined to trust their anonymous counterparts, those counterparts were not particularly trustworthy on average.
This suggests first that people who are trusting might have incorrect beliefs about how trustworthy people are in general. This result causes some problems for the inequity aversion and fairness models. If receivers sent back less than was originally sent, this means they decided to take more than two thirds of what they received, in addition to the $10 they were given for participating, leaving the sender with less than $10. Moreover, the fact that the sender had sent a positive amount in the first place enabled the receiver to take at least some of the surplus. Thus, it seems that the sender should interpret the amount sent as a signal that the sender is being kind.
For example, suppose that the receiver employed the strategy in which she would return y = αx, where x is the amount sent by the sender. All Pareto optima in this game involve the sender sending the full $10, and in fact every allocation in this case results in a Pareto optimum. Thus, the only Pareto optimum with the receiver employing a strategy of returning αx, yields πP2 b2= πP2 b2 = 40 − 30α. The worst possible outcome for the receiver is that in which the sender sends nothing, yielding π2b2= 10. The kindness function proposed in equation 15.14 would have a value
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Senders sent an average of x $5.16, with receivers returning α 0.90 of this. But if this is the case, equation 16.1 is positive. Thus, both the sender and the receiver should believe that the sender is being kind. Because this is positive, it should induce kind behavior by the receiver under the fairness-equilibrium hypothesis. But this does not occur on average. Instead, the split in the surplus return highly favors the receiver. Equation 16.1 also implies that the more the sender sends, the more the receiver should be willing to send back. In fact, there is no relationship between the amount sent and the amount returned.
Interestingly, the subgame in which the receiver decides how much money to send back to the sender is identical to the dictator game in which the receiver is the dictator. In this case, the results are fairly different from those in the dictator game. In general, the results of the dictator game did favor the dictator, but a large minority of the responses clustered very close to an even split between the dictator and the dictator’s counterpart. In this game, that would have meant a large number of receivers sending back about 1.5 times as much as was originally sent by the sender. This occurred in only a small number of cases. Thus, in response to the apparently kind behavior by the sender, the receiver appears to be less kind on average. This is a surprising result.
In an alternative treatment at a later point with different participants, senders and receivers were given a summary of the behavior from this first trust experiment. You would think that senders, given the chance to see how the game had been played by others, would send less in order to minimize their losses. This was not the case, with senders now sending an average of $5.36, more than in the previous experiments. In fact, although a larger fraction sent $0 (3/28), a larger fraction also sent the entire $10 (7/28). Seven of the 28 sent $5.
One potential explanation for this unintuitive behavior is that the information on the behavior in prior experiments created a social norm. Thus, for example, it may be that we don’t think twice about giving a waiter or waitress our credit card because we see
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FIGURE 16.2 Behavior in the Trust Game with Information on History
Source: Berg, J., J. Dickhaut, and K. McCabe. “Trust, Reciprocity and Social History.” Games and Economic Behavior
10(1995): 122–142.
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others do the same so often. We behave this way because we believe that it is expected and that there may be some negative social consequence to violating the norm. However, it seems unlikely that such a social norm could be established if those who adhered to the social norm would be punished for it.
Interestingly, although sender behavior did not change much with information on others’ behavior, receiver behavior changed substantially. The results of this game are displayed in Figure 16.2. Of the 25 receivers who were sent money, 17 returned at least as much as the sender sent. A majority, 13, sent back more than the sender had sent, resulting in an average amount returned of $6.46. With common information on others’ behavior in similar situations, suddenly trust pays. Moreover, with the information on others’ behavior, suddenly the amount returned increases with the amount sent, as predicted by Rabin’s fairness model. This again may be the result of the social norm established by the information. In this case, the social norm seemed to signal to receivers what amounts indicated that they had been trusted and what amounts indicated that they were not trusted.