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Saint-Petersburg State Polytechnic University Faculty of Economics and Management Finance and Money Circulation Department Course Paper «Portfolio investment»
Student: O. A. Epishina Group № 3076/1 Checked by: E.B. Volodarskaya Position: Associate professor Department: Foreign Languages Approved:
Saint-Petersburg 2008
Contents Key words ………………………………………………………….3 Introduction ………………………………………………………. 4 1. Notion of the portfolio investment …………………………….. 5 2. Types of investment portfolios ………………………………….6 3. Investment portfolio forming ……………………………………8 4. Investment portfolio management ……………………………….9 5. Portfolio investment in Russia ………………………………… 11 Conclusion ………………………………………………………...12 Bibliography ………………………………………………………14 Key words 1) blue chips – голубые фишки 2) efficient portfolio – эффективный портфель 3) financial instrument – финансовый инструмент 4) laid-down capital – вложенный капитал 5) management strategies – стратегии управления 6) market value – рыночная (курсовая) стоимость 7) portfolio creation – формирование портфеля 8) portfolio liquidity – ликвидность портфеля 9) portfolio of aggressive/conservative/moderate growth – портфель агрессивного/консервативного/умеренного роста 10) portfolio structure – структура портфеля 11) return enhancement – увеличение дохода 12) risk reduction – снижение риска 13) well diversified portfolio – хорошо диверсифицированный портфель Introduction The development of the market economy and the attachment of the private equity in different forms led to a fact that along with cash resources, securities got a wide spread occurrence as a mean of the investment. Its variety often complicates a solution to the issue, which securities exactly are needed to be invested in to maximize the return. At the same time you should consider that the investment in stock is always attended by the risk. Remember that the most profitable securities are the most risky ones. Due to it there was the idea worked out, according to which money should be invested in different securities in order to gain the optimal result. The sense of forming the portfolio is in giving the whole securities such investment features (risk and return) which are not achievable from a position of separately taken stock but reachable only by their combination. Also it should be considered that the efficient portfolio is not a universal thing, because for every investor exists his own optimal combination of the capital safety, profitability and liquidity. Thus the general aim of this term paper is to understand the foundations of the investment portfolio operation, which implies the following tasks: characterize functions it fulfils, portray types of portfolio for every kind of investor, discuss basic principles of its structuring and management and the last but not the least is to analyze the state of portfolio investments in Russia. Although there are 8 sources in the bibliography, this research was carried out on the basis of the book “Investments”, which author is E. G. Julina, because there is the main essence of the portfolio investment. But for the more detailed familiarization with this theme it is desirable to address to Harry Markowitz (number one in bibliography) and his fundamental work about the portfolio selection, where mathematical methods of the optimal portfolio forming are presented, but it can’t be done within the bounds of this paper. That’s why we will content ourselves with only theoretical examination of the issue. 1. Notion of the portfolio investment The investment portfolio contains large number of securities. We speak about “portfolio selection” rather than “security selection”, because a good portfolio is more than a long list of good stocks and bonds. It is a balanced whole, providing the investor with protections and opportunities with respect to a wide range of contingencies. The investor should build towards an integrated portfolio which best suits his needs. [1] The foundation of the modern portfolio theory (MPT) was introduced by Harry Markowitz in 1952. Thirty-eight years later, Harry Markowitz, Merton Miller and William Sharpe were awarded Nobel Prize for what has become a broad theory for portfolio selection. The core concept of the Portfolio Theory is based on the asset diversification and directly relies on a conventional wisdom, which advice to avoid putting all eggs in one basket. [4] This factor is essential, since different investment instruments rise and fall in their value independent of each other, thus reducing the risk of losing money while investing in similar instruments only. Objects of the portfolio investment might be different securities: shares, bonds, derivative securities and some part of the portfolio might be funds. Quantities of stock in the portfolio may be different. Depending on a composition it may bear interest or loss and possesses this or that risk level. A list and an amount of incoming securities are called a portfolio structure, which presents a number of characteristics managed by the investor. [3:103] Actually the whole theory of the portfolio rests on the idea that the risk of the security is lower when it is the element of the portfolio, than when it is taken separately, but the return doesn’t depend on the form of the storage. So the investment portfolio is a set of different securities owned and managed by the investor as a single whole for achieving defined aims. [3:103] At that, the investor should stick to a principle of the diversification of the laid-down capital, which means dividing his investments among a variety of assets. 2. Types of investment portfolios Before amplifying stages of the portfolio forming, it might be wise to begin with investigating what types of portfolio exist, because it is a basis for the all following theory. Taking into consideration the investment qualities of securities, different types of portfolios can be formed with their own balance of the existing risk, acceptable for the portfolio holder, and the expected return in the defined period of time. A ratio of these factors helps to define a type of the portfolio. [3:105] The type of the portfolio – is its investment characteristic based on the ratio “return – risk”. At the same time the salient feature of the classification is the question of how this revenue is gained: is it due to the market value increase or the current payments like dividends and interest. [3:105] The portfolio classification according to the source of income is presented in Annex 1 (scheme 1). But here it is expedient to distinguish salient features of each type. The goal of the growth portfolio is the capital enlargement mainly thanks to increase of the market value, not due to dividends or interest receiving. The main financial instrument here is stock. According to the ratio of the expected capital enhancement and the possible risk, there might be marked out different kinds of growth portfolios: portfolios of aggressive, conservative and moderate growth. The first one is oriented on the highest possible capital increase. It consists of startups’ shares. The investment is quite risky, but at the same time it can bring the highest yield. The second one is much less risky. It includes shares of blue chips which are known for small but stable rates of the market value growth. The portfolio structure is constant for a long period of time. The third one is a mixture of the previous ones. The portfolio includes reliable securities along with speculative instruments which alter periodically. And for all that there is a guarantee for the medium capital enhancement and the moderate risk level. It is a prevailing model for investors who are not risky-prone. [3:107] The objective of the income portfolio is getting the high current income due to interest and dividend payments. This type provides the planned level of revenue at almost zero risk. [6] The portfolio of the regular income is formed with high-reliability securities, and brings in return the mean income under minimum risk level. [3:107] The portfolio of income stock consists of highly remunerative corporate bonds and securities under the mean risk level. [3:107] One of the main features of growth portfolios is their rapid structure change, depending on a market swing, while income portfolios have almost constant constitution and structure. [6] The enumerated types and kinds represent a spectrum of possible portfolios, but in practice investors frequently form combined portfolios. [6] Growth and income portfolios are used in order to eliminate possible loss both from the market value decreasing and small dividends and interest payments. One part of financial assets gives the capital enhancement and another brings income. The loss of the one part could be compensated by the increment of another. [3:107] Portfolios of dual purpose include securities receiving the high income together with the increase of the laid-down capital. The balanced portfolio implies an equilibration of not only the income but also the risk, which accompany operations with securities. It consists of stock, which market value goes up quickly, and highly profitable securities. [3:108] Besides the stated above classification there might be another one based on the risk level (see annex 1 scheme 2). The aggressive portfolio is based on a criterion of maximizing the current income without taking risk into consideration. Such a portfolio is peculiar to the aggressive investor, who presses towards the prompt growth of the laid-down capital, for what he buys risky securities and frequently changes a portfolio structure. [3:108] Salient features of the conservative portfolio are the least possible risk level and a presence of well-known corporate shares famous for the stable, though not high, market value increase rates. The chief idea of the conservative investor is a defense from inflation. That’s why he acquires securities with the small yield, but not inclined to risks. [3:109] The moderate portfolio combines patterns of the previous ones, and guarantees the mean capital enhancement and the moderate risk level. There also might be another classifications based on liquidity, industry or regional belonging. But I do not see a necessity to expand on them within the bounds of this paper, because I have just mentioned the most important ones, which bring us up to date. To put the information above in a nutshell, there is a variety of portfolios, and every investor should choose the one with its own balance of the capital enhancement and the possible risk, according to the pursuing goals. Besides, it might be fruitful to see an annex 1 (table 1), where an investment portfolio type for different kinds of investors is schematically presented, and in fact it is the essence of the earlier clarified information. 3. Investment portfolio forming The aims of the portfolio forming are the next: - ensuring of the high current investment yield and of certain portfolio liquidity - the safety and the increment in a long-range outlook - the access to products and materials in a short supply, interest and non-property rights through securities purchase - the sphere of influence expansion and the property redistribution [3:110] While forming the portfolio the investor should stick to the next principles: safety, yield, liquidity and the growth of the laid-down capital. There can be outlined 6 main stages of the investment portfolio forming: I stage – the choice of the optimal portfolio type for this specific investor; II stage – the estimation of the acceptable combination of risk and return, i.e. the estimation of each security unit weight (according to the golden rule: the more risky the security is, the higher is its yield unit weight); III stage – the assessment of the portfolio liquidity which is considered from the 2 points of view: as the possibility of the quick conversion the whole portfolio or its part into cash assets with low expenses on securities sale, and as the possibility of the corporation to redeem its liability towards creditors; IV stage – the decision on the portfolio quantity structure, which means that the investor should define how many equity types should be included in the portfolio. An increase of these types doesn’t always imply a decrease of the risk level. The biggest risk reduction occurs when the portfolio consists of 8-15 different types of securities. The latter quantity increase is not reasonable as it may lead to negative consequences; V stage – the decision on the initial portfolio structure and its possible future change adjusted for the state of the market; VI stage – the future strategy choice of the portfolio management. [3:111-112] Thus, the problem of the investment portfolio forming is a serious and important one because portfolio’s features totally depend on how it is formed. And even Nobel Prizes are awarded for the ideas of how to create the optimal portfolio. 4. Investment portfolio management After we got acquainted with the idea of the portfolio and how it forms, it is a high time we expatiated on management strategies of the obtained portfolio, because market is rapidly changing, and we have to modify our investments according to it. The investment portfolio should be managed in order to bring in desirable revenue. Under the notion “management” is seen a whole set of methods which provide maintenance of the originally invested sum, the attainment of the highest revenue and the risk reduction. Usually two types of management are singled out: active and passive ones. The active management is the management connected with a constant monitoring of the security market, an acquisition of the most efficient stock and a rapid deliverance from low-income shares. It implies a swift change of the investment portfolio composition. [2:15] That is why it is peculiar to aggressive portfolios. [3:115] At that, the monitoring is widely used, which helps to react quickly to short-term alterations on the equity market, and define the most attractive securities for the investment. The active management monitoring proposes: • the security selection (a purchase of highly profitable and a selling of unprofitable stock) • the assessment of risks and return of the new portfolio taking into consideration securities rotation • the comparison of the efficiency of the previous and the forming portfolios • the portfolio restructuring and the renewing of its structure. [2:15] The passive management is the management, which results in forming the diversified portfolio and keeping it for a long period of time. The passive management monitoring includes: • the decision on the least possible yield level • the security selection and forming of the highly diversified portfolio • the optimal portfolio forming • the portfolio renewing if the yield reduction is under the possible limit. [2:16] I want to complete this part by postulating that the choice of management tactics depends on the portfolio type, on the manager’s (investor’s) ability to choose securities and forecast the market state. If the investor isn’t able to choose stock and time properly, he should create the well diversified portfolio and hold the risk at the defined level. If the investor is sure that he can foresee a market state, he should change the portfolio structure according to market changes and the selected management type. For instance, it is difficult to expect the high yield, if to imply the passive management style to the aggressive portfolio. [3:115] 5. Portfolio investment in Russia Investment in securities is a relatively new phenomenon of the native economics, because at the soviet times the financial market didn’t function as such: its main part, which is equity market, didn’t exist and as a result there were no opportunities to invest money in financial instruments. Now the situation is changing but there are still a lot of problems in this sphere for russian and especially for foreign investors. The main obstacles to the foreign investors are a high level of corruption and administrative barriers. Government’s investment policy is unstable – the investor’s status has an indefinite nature (i. e. Saxalin-2). Government isn’t able to suggest clear rules of play in the sphere of foreign investment attraction in strategic objects. The main problems are a low level of legislation and capital openness of the market. [8] According to the newspaper “Kommersant”, which was published at 2 August, 2007, before dividing the Stabilization fund into some parts, it was assumed that money, allocated for National Wealth fund, would be invested exceptionally in the portfolio investment. Ministry of finance insisted on the fact that National Wealth fund should be the merely portfolio investor and shouldn’t buy strategic portfolios of shares. [7] Data, published at the magazine “Equity market”, testify that the biggest foreign investors in Russian economics are Cyprus, the Netherlands and Luxemburg, which share amount to 21, 20 and 18% pro tanto of total. Also in the big ten of the biggest investors are included Great Britain with 8%, Germany with 7%, USA with 4%, Ireland, France and Virginia Islands all with 2,4% and Switzerland with 2%. [8] So we can see that portfolio investment in our country is developing, although a major part of it belongs to foreign investors. In conditions of the world economic crisis foreign speculative capital will go away from the market and native investors will have to facilitate the sphere. But the bad economic situation will slow down rates of growth of the national portfolio investment and throw it back for some years. Conclusion I want to end this paper by repeating that you can’t find a security, which is highly profitable, highly reliable and highly liquid at the same time. Each stock may only possess two of these features at best. That’s why a compromise is inevitable. If the equity is reliable, its return will be low and vice versa. So the investor should know the main principles of the portfolio creation and functioning in order to gain the highest return and as far as possible eliminate the probable risk. In this paper an attempt was made to identify the existing investor’s types, and to show on this basis how they should create their portfolios, what financial instruments they should include, and how they should manage the portfolio. So for the conservative investor, whose objectives are the least possible risk level and a defense from inflation, it is necessary to have blue chips in the portfolio because they give stable income and their risk is quite low, and if talking about the management style it should be the passive one. Aggressive investors, aimed at the rapid laid-down capital enhancement, on the contrary, should acquire shares and other risky financial instruments, and use the active management style, which implies a quick change of the portfolio structure. And for moderate investors, who involve features of the previous ones, it is advisable to have a well-diversified portfolio, consisting of risky shares and blue chips shares, which as a whole will provide a medium capital enhancement and a moderate risk level. Actually it should be said that the majority of the investors belongs exactly to this type, because they want not only to defend their savings from inflation but also to gain profit, but on the other hand they aren’t ready to risk their money. Also some words were said about the state of Russian portfolio investments. Actually this sphere isn’t quite developed but it is leaping forward. Its motive power is foreign investments, but native investors are also starting to play their part. However, only basic principles were examined in the study, which, without any doubt, must be pronouncedly followed, but they don’t answer in details how to form the optimal portfolio for the specific investor, because it is only a basis for the further research with the use of mathematical methods. And to go deeper into the subject it is essential to turn to the book “Portfolio selection” of Harry Markowitz. But I assume that within the problem put by at the beginning of this paper, which is “to understand the foundations of the investment portfolio operation”, all the necessary information is unveiled, and this work gives interested people the direction for the further research. Bibliography 1. H. M. Markowitz. Portfolio selection: Efficient diversification of investments. – John Wiley&Sons, Inc: New York; Chapman&Hall, Ltd: London, 1959. 2. E. G. Julina. Investments. – M.: Examen, 2006 – 192 p. 3. V. M. Askinadzi, V. F. Maksimova. Portfolio investments. – M., 2005 – 62p. 4. V. Veneeva. Analysis of modern portfolio theory. 5. Investment portfolio: an essence, aims, types. 6. Forming of the securities portfolio. 7. M. Shiskin, A. Shapovalov, D. Bytrin. Stabfund is deprived of its strategic functions. Newspaper “Kommersant” №136 (3712) 2007. Защита рефератов
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