- •Preface
- •Contents
- •Chapter 1
- •1.1 International Financial Markets
- •Foreign Exchange
- •Covered Interest Parity
- •Uncovered Interest Parity
- •Futures Contracts
- •1.2 National Accounting Relations
- •National Income Accounting
- •The Balance of Payments
- •1.3 The Central Bank’s Balance Sheet
- •Chapter 2
- •2.1 Unrestricted Vector Autoregressions
- •Lag-Length Determination
- •Granger Causality, Econometric Exogeniety and Causal
- •Priority
- •The Vector Moving-Average Representation
- •Impulse Response Analysis
- •Forecast-Error Variance Decomposition
- •Potential Pitfalls of Unrestricted VARs
- •2.2 Generalized Method of Moments
- •2.3 Simulated Method of Moments
- •2.4 Unit Roots
- •The Levin—Lin Test
- •The Im, Pesaran and Shin Test
- •The Maddala and Wu Test
- •Potential Pitfalls of Panel Unit-Root Tests
- •2.6 Cointegration
- •The Vector Error-Correction Representation
- •2.7 Filtering
- •The Spectral Representation of a Time Series
- •Linear Filters
- •The Hodrick—Prescott Filter
- •Chapter 3
- •The Monetary Model
- •Cassel’s Approach
- •The Commodity-Arbitrage Approach
- •3.5 Testing Monetary Model Predictions
- •MacDonald and Taylor’s Test
- •Problems
- •Chapter 4
- •The Lucas Model
- •4.1 The Barter Economy
- •4.2 The One-Money Monetary Economy
- •4.4 Introduction to the Calibration Method
- •4.5 Calibrating the Lucas Model
- •Appendix—Markov Chains
- •Problems
- •Chapter 5
- •Measurement
- •5.2 Calibrating a Two-Country Model
- •Measurement
- •The Two-Country Model
- •Simulating the Two-Country Model
- •Chapter 6
- •6.1 Deviations From UIP
- •Hansen and Hodrick’s Tests of UIP
- •Fama Decomposition Regressions
- •Estimating pt
- •6.2 Rational Risk Premia
- •6.3 Testing Euler Equations
- •Volatility Bounds
- •6.4 Apparent Violations of Rationality
- •6.5 The ‘Peso Problem’
- •Lewis’s ‘Peso-Problem’ with Bayesian Learning
- •6.6 Noise-Traders
- •Problems
- •Chapter 7
- •The Real Exchange Rate
- •7.1 Some Preliminary Issues
- •7.2 Deviations from the Law-Of-One Price
- •The Balassa—Samuelson Model
- •Size Distortion in Unit-Root Tests
- •Problems
- •Chapter 8
- •The Mundell-Fleming Model
- •Steady-State Equilibrium
- •Exchange rate dynamics
- •8.3 A Stochastic Mundell—Fleming Model
- •8.4 VAR analysis of Mundell—Fleming
- •The Eichenbaum and Evans VAR
- •Clarida-Gali Structural VAR
- •Appendix: Solving the Dornbusch Model
- •Problems
- •Chapter 9
- •9.1 The Redux Model
- •9.2 Pricing to Market
- •Full Pricing-To-Market
- •Problems
- •Chapter 10
- •Target-Zone Models
- •10.1 Fundamentals of Stochastic Calculus
- •Ito’s Lemma
- •10.3 InÞnitesimal Marginal Intervention
- •Estimating and Testing the Krugman Model
- •10.4 Discrete Intervention
- •10.5 Eventual Collapse
- •Chapter 11
- •Balance of Payments Crises
- •Flood—Garber Deterministic Crises
- •11.2 A Second Generation Model
- •Obstfeld’s Multiple Devaluation Threshold Model
- •Bibliography
- •Author Index
- •Subject Index
8.4. VAR ANALYSIS OF MUNDELL—FLEMING |
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Problems
1. (Static Mundell-Fleming with imperfect capital mobility). Let the trade balance be given by α(s + p − p) − ψy. A real depreciation raises exports and raises the trade balance whereas an increase in income leads to higher imports which lowers the trade balance. Let the capital account be given by θ(i−i ), where 0 < θ < ∞ indexes the degree of capital mobility. We replace (8.3) with the external balance
condition
α(s + p − p) − ψy + θ(i − i ) = 0,
that the balance of payments is 0. (We are ignoring the service account.) When capital is completely immobile, θ = 0 and the balance of payments reduces to the trade balance. Under perfect capital mobility,
θ= ∞ implies i = i which is (8.3).
(a)Call the external balance condition the FF curve. Draw the FF curve in r, y space along with the LM and IS curves.
(b)Repeat the comparative statics experiments covered in this chapter using the modiÞed external balance condition. Are any of the results sensitive to the degree of capital mobility? In particular, how do the results depend on the slope of the FF curve in relation to the LM curve?
2.How would the Mundell-Fleming model with perfect capital mobility explain the international co-movements of macroeconomic variables in Chapter 5?
3.Consider the Dornbusch model.
(a)What is the instantaneous e ect on the exchange rate of a shock to aggregate demand? Why does an aggregate demand shock not produce overshooting?
(b)Suppose output can change in the short run by replacing the IS curve (8.7) with y = δ(s − p) + γy − σi + g, replace the price adjustment rule (8.8) with pú = π(y−y¯), where long-run output is given by y¯ = δ(¯s − p¯) + γy¯ − σi + g. Under what circumstances is the overshooting result (in response to a change in money) robust?
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CHAPTER 8. THE MUNDELL-FLEMING MODEL |