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Based on the results of the interpretation analysis with cases pulmonary nodules and masses from radiologists, it was revealed that the major difficulties were caused by Case N4 (Figure 26) with the localization of a solid nodule in the apical section of the upper left pulmonary lobe according to CT and visualized behind the shadow of the collarbone on a PA chest X-ray. The percentage of erroneous interpretations of the X- ray images in this case was 48.4%, while 56.2% of radiologists with experience in thoracic radiology made a mistake in interpreting this case, while among the doctors without this experience, 45.9% of specialists made a mistake (Table 12). A greater number of radiologists who misinterpreted the digital X-ray image with case N4 were among specialists with more than 10 years of experience and amounted to 54.9% versus 46.8% of radiologists with less than 10 years of experience.

Figure 26: X-ray examination data, Case N4, patient with adenocarcinoma in C1+2 of the left lung

Along with this, X-rays with pathology localization behind the shadow of the 1st rib and partially behind the mediastinal shadow, as in Case N1 and N2, caused difficulties; the percentage of wrong answers among radiologists was 43.8% and 46.5%, respectively. At the same time, the largest number of missing pathologies on digital X- rays with these two cases were among the doctors with more than ten years of experience: 56.9% of doctors made a mistake when analyzing Case N1 and 58.8% of doctors – when analyzing Case N2.

The highest percentage of correct answers was obtained in the analysis of digital X-ray images with solid structure localized in the intercostal space, i.e., Cases N5 and

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N6 (amounted to 83.3% and 92.6% respectively) among the X-ray analysis results by radiologists, without significant differences depending on the work experience and exposure to thoracic radiology.

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CHAPTER 4 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITIES OF VARIOUS AUTOMATED ANALYSIS SYSTEMS OF X-RAYS IN PATIENTS WITH SUSPECTED NODULES AND MASSES

An analytical validation of four programs (A, B, C, D) has been completed to research the possible use of automated analysis systems of PA chest X-rays to detect pulmonary nodules and masses. for the analysis of chest X-rays, which bill themselves as systems capable of automatically detecting and marking pathology on PA chest X- rays.

Analytical validation was done with three sampling packages containing various pathology occurrence:

Sampling Package 1 (5,150 X-rays: 150 (3%) X-rays with various pathologies manifested as nodules and masses)

Sampling Package 2 (100 X-rays: 6 (6%) X-rays with various pathologies manifested as nodules and masses)

Sampling Package 3 (300 X-rays: 150 (50%) X-rays with various pathologies manifested as nodules and masses)

The diagnostics efficiency values of Program A are given in Table 13, Figure 27.

Table 13: Diagnostics efficiency values of Program A when detecting pulmonary

nodules and masses on survey PA chest X-rays

Diagnostics Efficiency Values

Sampling Package

Sampling

Sampling

1

Package 2

Package 3

 

Sensitivity

55%

83.3%

55%

Specificity

96%

99%

99%

Likelihood Ratio of a Positive

12.633

78.333

83.000

Test

 

 

 

Likelihood Ratio of a Negative

0.467

0.168

0.450

Test

 

 

 

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Positive Predictive Value

0.275

0.833

0.988

Negative Predictive Value

0.986

0.989

0.690

Accuracy

94%

98%

77%

Figure 27: ROC-curves based on the analysis of Sampling Package 1 (a), Sampling Package 2 (b) and Sampling Package 3 (c) by Program A

Following clinical recommendations to the testing of artificial intelligence-based software [18], Program A, having received AUC of 0.825 when analyzing Sampling Package 1, could be admitted to the further clinical validation. Having shown high specificity (96%) and low sensitivity (55%), Program A received high likelihood ratio of a positive result (12.633) [44].

When analyzing Sampling Package 2 with a higher pathology distribution value, Program A can also be admitted to clinical validation (AUC of 0.911); it should be noted that the AUC value has increased compared to the research results for Sampling Package 1 (AUC of 0.825) [44]. As with the analysis of Sampling Package 1 we obtained high specificity (99%), what is reflected in the negative predictive value

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(0.989). The sensitivity value was higher (83.3%); whereat, the positive predictive value amounted to 0.833. As with the analysis of Sampling Package 1, we obtained high likelihood ratio of a positive test (78.3).

The next stage of testing Program A was to test its diagnostics efficiency with Sampling Package 3; pathology distribution of this package has made 50%. Based on the research results for this stage, the program did not pass the threshold for admission to clinical validation, having obtained AUC of 0.770 [44]. However, the specificity value remains high (99%). The sensitivity value turned out to be low (55%).

This may serve as a reason to conclude that using this program at a diagnostic pulmonary center where patients with pulmonary pathology dominate, will not be effective. At the same time, the possibility to pass clinical validation aimed to use the program for chest screening examinations is worth noting [44].

Following the more detailed analysis of the results obtained during the testing of Program A, 40% of all TB cases and 43% of all lung cancer cases were missed in Sampling Package 3.

Program B was also tested with all three packages (Table 14, Figure 28).

Table 14: Diagnostics efficiency values of Program B when detecting pulmonary nodules and masses on survey PA chest X-rays

Diagnostics Efficiency Values

Sampling

Sampling

Sampling

Package 1

Package 2

Package 3

 

Sensitivity

54%

50.0%

54%

Specificity

91%

100%

100%

Likelihood Ratio of a Positive Test

5.732

 

-

Likelihood Ratio of a Negative Test

0.508

0.500

0.460

Positive Predictive Value

0.147

1.000

1.000

Negative Predictive Value

0.985

0.969

0.685

Accuracy

90%

97%

77%

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Figure 28: ROC-curves based on the analysis of Sampling Package 1 (a), Sampling Package 2 (b) and Sampling Package 3 (c) by Program B

Based on the analysis results of Sampling Package 1, Program B received AUC of 0.723 and failed to reach the threshold AUC of 0.810 necessary for the further recommendation of the product for clinical validation. Thereat, Program B has fairly high specificity (91%) and, same as with Program A, low sensitivity (54%). Likelihood ratio of a positive test made up to 5.732.

When testing Program B with Sampling Package 2 with a higher distribution value (6%), the system performed slightly better, receiving higher AUC (0.750), but failing to obtain admission to clinical validation. Additionally, we have obtained max. specificity (100%); this correlates with the negative predictive value of 0.977 [44]. However, the sensitivity value remains low (50%), what was also reflected in the low positive predictive value (1.000).

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Under the next analyzed Sampling Package 3 with the distribution value of 50%, Program B, as at the first two stages, was close to the threshold value, but did not manage to overcome it (AUC of 0.770) [44]. Retention of high specificity (100%) and the increase of sensitivity up to 54% have been noted.

Speaking of Program B, it should be noted that, despite the high specificity values (91-100%) in all three packages, not enough AUC value (0.723-0.770) necessary to pass the threshold for further clinical validation is a significant reason for the manufacturer to continue improving the program; admittance of Program B to further testing (clinical validation) is currently not feasible.

Program B missed 44% of all TB cases and 42% of lung cancer cases [44].

Due to the access limitations, Programs C and D were tested only with Sampling Packages 2 and 3.

The diagnostics efficiency values of the program are given in Table 15, Figure

29.

Table 15: Diagnostics efficiency values of Program C when detecting pulmonary nodules and masses on survey PA chest X-rays

Diagnostics Efficiency Values

Sampling

Sampling

 

Package 2

Package 3

Sensitivity

66.7%

74%

Specificity

90%

89%

Likelihood Ratio of a Positive Test

6.963

6.938

Likelihood Ratio of a Negative Test

0.369

0.291

Positive Predictive Value

0.308

0.874

Negative Predictive Value

0.977

0.775

Accuracy

89%

82%

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Figure 29: ROC-curves based on the analysis of Sampling Package 2 (a) and Sampling Package 3 (b) by Program C

Based on the analysis of Sampling Package 2 by Program C, we received AUC of 0.787, which is close to the threshold, but not enough to overcome it. At the same time, the sensitivity and specificity values made up to 66.7% and 90% respectively, affecting the negative predictive value (0.977) and the positive predictive value (0.308) as well.

When increasing the distribution value up to 50% in Package Sampling 3, Program C obtained AUC of 0.817; this allowed the program to overcome the threshold for the further clinical validation. Additionally, Program C received higher sensitivity, reaching 74%. The specificity value decreased to 89%. It is worth noting that the underdiagnosis scope when analyzing Sampling Package 3 was not much, as compared with the previous programs: only 6% of TB cases and 28% lung cancer cases.

This may serve as a reason to conclude that using this program for screening examinations will not be effective. At the same time, possible clinical validation to be used at a diagnostic pulmonary center where patients with pulmonary pathology dominate, should be considered.

The diagnostics efficiency values of program D are given in Table 16, Figure 30.

Table 16 Diagnostics efficiency values of Program D when detecting pulmonary nodules and masses on survey PA chest X-rays

Diagnostics Efficiency Values

Sampling

Sampling

 

Package 2

Package 3

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Sensitivity

66.7%

87%

Specificity

90%

91%

Likelihood Ratio of a Positive Test

6.963

9.357

Likelihood Ratio of a Negative Test

0.369

0.140

Positive Predictive Value

0.308

0.903

Negative Predictive Value

0.977

0.877

Accuracy

89%

89%

Figure 30: ROC-curves based on the analysis of Sampling Package 2 (a) and Sampling Package 3 (b) by Program D

The AUC value from the analysis of Sampling Package 2 with Program D made up to 0.787; this can serve as a reason to recommend the program for the further work on the system to overcome the threshold and gain access to clinical validation. The specificity value of Program D reached 90%; in general, this can be compared with the values of the previous programs reviewed, as well as its negative predictive value of 0.977. The sensitivity value obtained during the testing of Program D with Sampling Package 2 has made 66.7%; this correlates with the positive predictive value of 0.308.

The results of testing Program D with Sampling Package 3 with an indicator of pathology distribution of 50% appeared to be better. The sensitivity value reached 87%, becoming the highest value for all programs at this stage of the research, as well as the

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positive predictive value of 0.903. At the same time, the specificity value made to 91%; this can be tracked with the negative predictive value (0.877).

Therefore, this program cannot be allowed for clinical validation under conditions of screening examinations; however, it will be effective at a diagnostic pulmonary center where patients with pulmonary pathology dominate.

The lowest value of the under-diagnosis scope obtained from the program shall be noted as well – only 2% of TB cases and 12% of lung cancer cases were missed.

Table 17 shows comparative results of testing two programs with Sampling Package 1.

Table 17: Diagnostics efficiency values of Programs A and B when analyzing images from Sampling Package 1

Diagnostics Efficiency Values

Program A

Program B

Sensitivity

55%

54%

Specificity

96%

91%

Likelihood Ratio of a Positive Test

12.633

5.732

 

 

 

Likelihood Ratio of a Negative Test

0.467

0.508

 

 

 

Positive Predictive Value

0.275

0.147

 

 

 

Negative Predictive Value

0.986

0.985

 

 

 

Accuracy

94%

90%

Area Under Curve (AUC)

0.825

0.723

Therefore, out of two programs tested with a large-scale package (n=5,150), the low pathology frequency (3%), which corresponds more with the model of screening chest examinations, only one program passed the threshold AUC of 0.810 (receiving AUC of 0,825) and can be admitted to the further clinical validation. The second program felt short to achieve the required AUC value of 0.723 and requires further elaborations.

Both programs possess the following tendencies: high specificity (96% and 91% respectively), not very high sensitivity (55% and 65% respectfully); high likelihood ratio of a positive test (12.633 and 5.732 respectfully) [44].

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