Lehrer, Jonahan. How We Decided

A C C (anterior cingulated cortex), 3 8 - 4 0 , 55 , 1 1 9 , 246, 248

Achievement gap, 1 3 9 Addiction

and dopamine, 3 5

lack of dopamine receptors, 40 to gambling, 5 8 - 6 1

to information, 164

A D H D (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), 1 1 3 , 1 1 5

Adolescents

recklessness of, 1 1 4 , 1 1 5 reward programs for, ii4 n

Aeschylus, The Oresteia, 19 Aesthetics

and morality, 1 7 2

and Robertie on backgammon, 5 0 - 5 1

Airline operation

Cockpit Resource Management in, 2-53-55

decision-making in, xiii-xiv,

1 2 3 - 2 6 , 1 2 7 - 3 2 , 2 5 1 , 2 5 3 ,

2.54-55. 2.58

and flight simulators, xiii-xiv, 2 5 2 - 5 3

safety level of, 2 5 1 - 5 2 , 258 Airplane cockpit, 2 5 6 - 5 7 , 259 Albright, Madeleine, 1 9 7

Altruism, 1 8 3 - 8 4 . See also Morality Ambiguity, need to accept, 242 American College of Physicians,

on back-pain imaging, 164

American Pain Society, on back-pain imaging, 164

Amygdala, 1 8 , 248

airplane computers compared to, 256

and certainty, 242

and expression of anger, 1 8 0 - 8 1 and framing effect, 1 1 5

and loss aversion, 106, 107 vs. prefrontal cortex, 1 1 6 and psychopaths, i85n, 1 7 1 of Romanian orphans, 19 3 in top-down decisions, 203

Index

Anchoring effect, 1 5 7 - 5 8

in auction experiment, 1 5 6 Andreassen, Paul, 1 5 8 - 5 9 Anterior cingulated cortex ( A C Q ,

38 - 40, 55, 1 1 9 , 246, 248 Anticipatory clues, in hitting baseball,

Apartment choice and blood-sugar level (experiment), 1 5 2

making, censored

diversity as corrective to, 2 1 7 - 1 8 and lure of certainty, 2 1 0 - 1 1 , 247 by political partisans, 204 - 6

in pundits' predictions, 2 0 7 - 1 0 , 2 4 2 - 4 3

by religious believers/nonbelievers, 206 - 7

in Yom Kippur War, 2 1 1 - 1 8 Ariely, Dan, 1 5 6 , 15 8 Aristotle, 1 0 7 - 8

Artificial intelligence (AI) birth of, 1 2

and Deep Blue, 4 3 - 4 4

and T D learning, 44 - 46, 49, 50, 5 1

Associations

through overlapping ideas, 1 3 0 , 1 3 1

in puzzle-solving, 1 1 9 Asymmetric paternalism, 9 1 - 9 2 Attachment, monkeys' need for, 1 9 1 Attention deficit hyperactivity

disorder (ADHD), 1 1 3 , 1 1 5 Auction experiment, 1 5 6 - 5 7 Audience research, through focus

groups, 1 0 8 - 1 1 , 1 3 3 Auerbach, Red, 66 Ausubel, Lawrence, 90 - 91 Autism, 1 8 4 - 8 7 , 189

\ 289

Aviation, commercial. See Airline operation

Aviation deaths, from decisions in cockpit, 2 5 1

Backgammon, 4 2 - 4 3 , 44

and Robertie, 4 9 - 5 1 Back pain, 1 6 0 - 6 5 , 23 5 Bacon, Francis, 1 1 Balloun, Joe, 206 - 7 Bar-Joseph, Uri, 2 1 6 Baron-Cohen, Simon, 184 Bartels, Larry, 2 0 5 - 6 Barto, Andrew, 45n Baseball, hitting in, 2 5 - 2 6 Basketball

"hot hand" in, 63 - 64, 66 - 67 and Philadelphia 76ers (1980s),

62 - 64

Bates, Edward, 2 1 8

Baumeister, Roy, 1 5 2 Bechara, Antoine, 46, 199 Beilock, Sian, 1 3 7 - 3 8 Belichick, Bill, 2

Bell Curve, The (Herrnstein and Murray), 14 0

Belman, Felice, 1 9 7 , 198

Benartzi, Shlomo, 77 , 91 Berlin, Isaiah, 24 1 Betsch, Tilmann, 48

Binger, Michael, 2 1 9 - 2 2 , 222 , 2 2 3 , 2 2 5 - 2 9 , 2 2 9 - 3 1 , 2 3 2 , 2 3 8 - 3 9 , 2 4 0 - 4 1 , 247, 250

Bird, Larry, 64 Blackjack, 2 2 0 - 2 1 Blair, James, 1 7 0 Bledsoe, Drew, 1 - 2

Bohr, Niels, on experts, 5 1 Bottomless-bowls experiment, 1 5 3 Bradshaw, Terry, 7

Brady, Tom, 2 - 4, 5 - 6, 7 - 8 , 27, 55 , 6 1 , 250

Brain, human

and altruism, 1 8 3 - 8 4 areas of

amygdala, 1 8 , 248 (see also Amygdala)

290 /

medial frontal gyrus, 1 7 7 - 7 8 mirror neurons, 1 8 5 , 186 , 194

cortex)

spindle neurons, 40, 5 5 superior temporal sulcus,

1 7 7 - 7 8 , 18 3 thalamus, 38, ioin, 1 0 2 ventral caudate, 68

in case of Elliot, 1 3 - 1 5 and Iowa Gambling Task, 47 from lack of love, 1 9 1

and loss aversion, 79, 80 and puzzles, 1 1 8

Brain-imaging technology, xvii

Index

Brock, Timothy, 206 - 7

Brown, Troy, 4, 7 - 8 , 27, 249

Bush, George W., 204 - 5

"Candle problem," 1 1 7 - 1 8 Candy-scoop experiment, 1 5 2 - 5 3 Card-playing experiment (Iowa

Gambling Task), 46 - 47, 2 3 1 Carragee, Eugene, 1 6 1 Car-shopping, 23 2 - 3 5

Carter, Jimmy, 204

Casting, for soap opera, 2 2 - 2 3 Ceausescu, Nicolae, 1 9 2 Certainty

bias for, 2 1 7

about Israel's security before Yom

49

Charity, and sympathy, 1 8 3 - 8 4 Cheeks, Maurice, 62

Chess

and Deep Blue, 4 3 - 4 4 , 50

and Garry Kasparov, 43 , 44, 45, 54

by Jean Van de Velde, 1 3 6 - 3 7 Civilization, Freudian view of, 1 2 Clinton, Bill, and 2008 New

Hampshire primary endorse­ ment, 1 9 6 - 9 7

Clinton, Hillary, 196

Coca-Cola, and placebo effect, 1 4 7 Cockpit Resource Management

(CRM), 2 5 3 - 5 6 in hospitals, 255

Index

Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), 24 2n

Cognitive dissonance, 207. See also Argument in process of decision-making, censored

Cognitive psychology, 1 2 - 1 3 Cohen, Jonathan, 89-90 Commuting, and weighting mistake,

1 4 5

Competing hypotheses, need to consider, 247. See also at Argument

Computer achievements of, 229

in airplane cockpit, 256, 25 7 and pilot intervention, 258

Deep Blue, 4 3 - 4 4 , 50

mind as, 1 2 , 1 3 , 24, 2 4 3 - 4 4 and mind's shortcomings, 1 5 0

and mind's areas of superiority, 26, 229

seen as "intentional agent," 18 3 TD-Gammon, 44 - 46, 49, 50, 5 1 and ultimatum game, 1 8 2

Comte, Auguste, 1 1

Corpus callosum, severing of, 2 1 0 Correlation, by dopamine neurons,

37 Cost-benefit analysis

as absent in consumer choice, 201 in decision-making without

emotion, 1 6 Costco warehouse, 202

Counselors, predictions of student success by (study), 1 5 9 - 6 0

Counterintuitive idea

in airliner emergency, 1 2 5 on value of information, 160

\ 291

Credit cards, 8 2 - 8 7 , 89, 9 0 - 9 1 , 92 and adjustable-rate mortgages, 88 and shopping brain, 202

Cricket batters, 25

Crisis, decision-making in

in airliner flights, 1 2 0 - 3 2 , 1 3 3 ,

173» 2.53-54. 2.57 simulation of, xi-xiv, 2 5 2 - 5 3

in Persian Gulf War missile attack,

3 0 - 3 4 , 5 5 - 5 ^

Cult of Reason (French Revolution), 1 1

Cunningham, Randall, 7 "Cutting cure," 1 0 1

Damasio, Antonio, 1 3 - 1 6 , 4 6 - 4 7 ,

cortex)

conflicting claims in, 1 9 8 - 9 9 , 203 - 4

in shopping, 1 9 9 - 2 0 3

vs. top-down solution (study of experts' opinions), 208-9

conflicting claims censored in

2^2 /

Decision-making (cont.)

conscious thoughts interfering

in gambling game, 1 0 5 - 6 guidelines for, 2 4 4 - 5 0 improvement of, 250, 259

in aviation, 2 5 8 - 5 9 James on, 2 6 - 2 7

loss aversion in, 7 6 - 7 7 , 8 1 , 250 (see also Loss aversion)

mental flexibility in, 2 4 1

moral, 166 , 1 7 5 - 7 8 , 1 7 9 - 8 0 (see also Morality)

as mystery, 9

and past vs. present problems, 9 1 Plato on, 9 - 1 0

and pluralistic brain, xvi

in prairie fire, 9 5 - 9 8 , 99, 1 1 6 and prediction, 3 9 - 4 1

by psychopaths, 168

about radar signal (Operation Desert Storm), 3 0 - 3 4

and rationality, xv, 9, 140 , 149 , 1 6 5 (see also Rationality)

reference point in, 81 science of, 1 3 4 , 2 4 3 - 4 4

by soap opera director, 2 1 - 2 3 in sports and games

baseball (hitter), 2 5 - 2 6 basketball, 66

cricket, 25

football (quarterback), 1 - 8 , 9, 27

poker, 2 2 4 - 2 7 , 2 2 8 - 2 9 , 2 2 9 - 3 2 , 239

on stock market, 6 7 - 7 0 , 7 7 - 7 8 , 2 3 9 - 4 0

in Stroop task, 1 1 6

Index

under temptation, 89-90 unconscious, 2 3 7 (see also

Unconscious decision-making) vigilance in, 250

See also Problem-solving; Shopping Deep Blue, 4 3 - 4 4 , 50

Delayed gratification, experiment on and significance of, 1 1 1 - 1 3

"Deliberate calm," 1 2 8 Deliberation, 1 3 3

"choking" from, 1 3 6

by Van de Velde, 1 3 7 in taste test, 1 4 2

See also Decision-making; Rationality

DeLillo, Don, quoted, ix Descartes, René, xv, 1 0 - 1 1 , 1 7 2

Descartes' Error (Damasio), 1 6 Devil's advocate, 247

Dictator game, 1 8 7

Dijksterhuis, Ap, 144, 2 3 2 - 3 7 , 244, 245

Discipline, in airliner crisis, 1 3 1 Dissonant data

experts' response to, 209

See also Argument in process of decision-making, censored

Diversity

of airplane autopilot systems, 2 5 6

of brain regions, 24 2

unjustified certainty dispelled by,

2 9 4 /

Energy-drink experiment, 1 4 6 - 4 7 Enlightenment, on morality, 1 7 2 Error-related negativity, 3 8

Errors, and wisdom of emotions, 249 Erving, Julius, 62

Evolution

and morality, 1 7 5 - 7 6 , 1 7 8 and role of emotion, 23

and brain, 2 3 - 2 5 , 26, 1 1 4 and sympathy, 1 9 4 - 9 5

Executive control, n 6 - 1 7 in problem solving, 1 1 9

Executive dysfunction, 1 0 4 - 5 Expectation

adjustment of, 4 1

and dopamine neurons, 3 7 - 3 8 , 46 power of, 1 4 7

and wine-tasting experiment, 1 4 8 - 4 9

Experts

Bohr on, 5 1

and emotions, 249

and hedgehogvs. fox-strategy, 2 4 1 - 4 2

intuition of, 54

prediction record of (study), 2 0 7 - 1 0

Fairness, and ultimatum game, 1 8 1 - 8 2

Fama, Eugene, 67

Faulk, Marshall, 1 Favre, Brett, 7

Fear of failure, 5 2 - 5 3

Feedback dials, for focus groups, 108, 1 1 0

"Fellow-feeling," Adam Smith on, 1 8 2

Fictive-error learning, 68-69 Financial bubbles, 67 - 68, 69

Nasdaq bubble of late 1990s, 68 Financial markets, 2 3 9 - 4 0

Fire, in Montana gulch, 9 3 - 9 8 , 99, 1 1 6

Fitch, Dennis, 1 2 2 - 2 3 Fleming, Renee, 1 3 4 - 3 5 , 14 0 Flight simulators, 2 5 2 - 5 3

Index

emergency decision-making through, xi-xiv

Focus group, television, 1 0 8 - 1 1 , 1 3 3 401 (k) accounts, and asymmetric

paternalism, 9 1 - 9 2 Framing effect, 106

and prefrontal cortex, 10 7

Frank (contestant on Dutch Deal or No Deal), 7 3 ~ 7 4 , M 4

Frank, Robert, 1 8 2 Franklin, Benjamin, 1 7 3 Freeman, Walter, 1 0 1

French Revolution, Cult of Reason in, 1 1 Freud, Sigmund, n - 1 2 , 18

Friends (sitcom), 109

Frontal cortex, 1 7 . See also Prefrontal cortex

Frontal-lobe lobotomy, 1 0 1 - 2 Fusiform face area (FFA), 186

Gacy, John Wayne, 1 6 7 - 7 0 , 189 Gambler's fallacy, 66n Gambling addiction, 58 - 6 1 Gambling game, 1 0 5 - 7 George, Carol, 193

Gilovich, Thomas, 6 2 - 6 3 , 64, 66, 66n Glenn, Terry, 1 - 2

Gloucester, H M S (British destroyer), 3 0 - 3 2

Gold, Jamie, 2 2 3 , 227, 243 Golf

and holistic cue word, i39n putting, 1 3 8

Van de Velde's choking, 1 3 6 - 3 7 Gonen, Shmuel, 2 1 4

Goodwin, Doris Kearns, 2 1 8 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 208 Goya, Francisco, 1 2

Graden, Brian, 109

Graduate Record Examination (GRE), and performance-anxi­ ety experiment, 13 9

Greene, Joshua, 1 7 6 - 7 7 , 17 8 GreenPath, 82

Grossman, Dave, 1 7 9 - 8 0 Guidelines for decision-making,

2 4 4 - 5 0

Index

Haidt, Jonathan, 8 1 , 1 7 2 , 1 7 3 - 7 4

Happiness Hypothesis, The (Haidt), 81

Harlow, Harry, 189-9z

Haynes, Al, 1 2 0 - 3 2 , 246, 2 5 4 - 5 5 "Hedgehog and the Fox, The"

(Berlin), 24 1 Heilman, Kenneth, 103 Hellman, William, 98

Hill Street Blues, 109 Holistic cue word, i39n

Hormonal deficiencies, in Romanian orphans, 193

Hubris, 209 Huckabee, Mike, 196

Hume, David, 1 7 - 1 8 , 1 8 2 Hypothalamus, 38

Ideology, justification of, 206 Imagination, and moral emotions,

1 8 2

Impulse control, in delayed-gratifica- tion experiment, 1 1 2 - 1 3

Information

brain's inability to dismiss, 1 5 7 overabundance of, 1 5 8 , 164,

165

and back pain, 1 6 2 , 1 6 3 , 164 in investment experiment,

1 5 8 - 5 9 Insight

generation of, 1 3 0 into puzzles, 1 1 8 - 1 9

Instinct

and airliner crisis, 1 2 7 , 1 3 1 , 1 3 2 and blood-sugar level (apartment

choice experiment), 1 5 2 expertise of, 209

James on, 26 obsolete, 244 in poker, 2 3 1

and preferences (jam-tasting experiment), 1 4 2

See also Emotions Insula (brain region) and certainty, 243

and placebo effect, 14 6

\ 295

and shopping, 200, 2 0 1 , 203, 248 and credit cards, 86, 87, 202 Intellectual diversity, benefits of, 2 1 8

Introspection, 24 2 Intuition, xvi, 3 3 , 2 3 7

and blood-sugar level (apartment choice experiment), 1 5 2

of experts, 54 in poker, 2 3 1

and standardized test, 14 0 training for, 49

Investment experiments

on emotion and rational analysis, 2 3 9 - 4 0

with fictive-error learning, 67 - 69 on information access, 1 5 8 - 5 9 on loss aversion, 79 - 80

See also Stock market

Iowa Gambling Task (card-playing experiment), 4 6 - 4 7 , 2 3 1

iPods, shuffle feature of, 65 - 6 6

Iraq, Operation Desert Storm against,

*8-34> 5 5 - 5 6

Irrelevant information, and anchoring effect, 1 5 7

Israel

Research and Political Planning Center of, 2 1 7 , 24 1

and Yom Kippur War, 2 1 1 - 1 8

Jackson, Mary (case example), 1 0 2 - 5 Jam, strawberry (taste test for),

1 4 1 - 4 3 , 1 4 5 , 1 6 5 , 2 3 5 James, William, 26

Jefferson, Thomas, 1 1 Jimenez, Ralph, 196, 1 9 7 , 198 Jobs, Steve, 66

Journal of the American Medical

Kahneman, Daniel, 76, 1 4 5 , 1 5 7 n Kanner, Leo, 184

Kant, Immanuel, 1 1 , 1 7 2 , 1 7 3 Kasparov, Garry, 43 , 44, 45 , 54 Keltner, Dacher, 1 8 7

296 /

Kennedy, Rosemary, 1 0 2 Kerry, John, 204 - 5 Killing

psychopaths' reaction to, 169 (see also Psychopaths)

and U.S. soldiers in battle, 1 7 9 - 8 0 Klein, Gary, 33

Klinestiver, Ann, 4 7 - 5 9

Knutson, Brian, 200, 202 Krueger, Alan, 14 5

Kuwait, liberation of (Operation Desert Storm), 2 8 - 3 4 , 55—56

Laibson, David, 90

L A Poker Classic, 243

Lazarsfeld, Paul, 108 Learning

fictive-error, 68-69

from mistakes, 5 1 - 5 4 , 55 , 253 T D (temporal difference), 44 - 46,

49, 50, 5 1 LeDoux, Joseph, 23 , 99 Leibniz, Gottfried, 1 7 2 Leinart, Matt, 7

Leucotomy, prefrontal, 1 0 1 , 1 0 2 Lie detectors, 1 5 , 1 7 0

Limbic system, 1 7 amygdala in, 1 8 debate within, 199

and Save More Tomorrow plan, 92

Lincoln, Abraham, cabinet of, 2 1 8 Lo, Andrew, 239

Lobotomy, frontal-lobe, 1 0 1 - 2 Loewenstein, George, 79 - 80, 86, 9 1 ,

200, 202

London blitz, and missile strike points, 66

Loneliness, in monkey colony, 1 9 0 - 9 2 Loss aversion, 7 6 - 7 7 , 81

avoidance of, 250

in Deal or No Deal, 80 - 81 and depreciating stocks, 7 8 - 7 9 and emotions, 238

in examples of disease outbreak, 7 5 - 7 6

Index

and framing effect, 106 neurological impairment as

avoiding, 79, 80 in poker, 240

and premium equity puzzle, 7 7 - 7 8 and simple investment game, 79 - 80

Loss frame, 76

Louis IX (king of France), and backgammon, 43

Love, monkeys' need for, 1 9 1

Mackey, Sean, 163 Maclean, Norman, 94 MaCurdy, Thomas, 77 Madden, John, 1

"Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two, The" (Miller), 1 5 0

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and back pain, 1 6 1 - 6 5 , 2 3 5

Main, Mary, 193

Malone, Moses, 62

Mann Gulch river valley fire, 93 - 98, 99, 1 1 6

Manning, Peyton, 5 Marino, Dan, 7 Markowitz, Harry, 78 Marshall, S.L.A., 1 7 9 , 180

Marshmallow test (delayed gratifica­ tion), 1 1 1 - 1 3

Martino, Benedetto de, 106, 107

Mary Tyler Moore Show, The, 109 Math problems, and mysteries,

2 3 0 - 3 1

McCain, John, 196, 19 7

McGill University, ADH D research in, 1 1 3

Medea, desire vs. reason in, 10 Medial frontal gyrus, 1 7 7 - 7 8 Meir, Golda, 2 1 2 , 2 1 6 Melodrama, and Stein, 19 Memory, working, 1 0 3 , 1 3 0 , 1 3 1 ,

1 5 1 Memory-task-and-self-control

experiment, 1 5 0 - 5 1 Mental accounting, 1 5 3 - 5 5 Metacognition (thinking about

thinking), 107, 2 4 2 - 4 3 , 249 - 50

Index

Miller, Earl, 1 1 6 - 1 7

Miller, George, 1 5 0

Milner, Peter, 3 4 - 3 5 Mind, human, xiv

as computer, 1 2

and scissors analogy, xvii See also Brain, human

Mind, theory of

extended to computers, 18 3 and sympathy, 180

Minsky, Marvin, 1 3 , 45n Mirror neurons, 1 8 5 , 186, 194 Mischel, Walter, 1 1 1 - 1 3 Mistakes

learning from, 5 1 - 5 4 , 55 , 253 from rational methods, 140, 165 and wisdom of emotions, 249

MIT Executive Education Program, and auction experiment, 1 5 6 MIT Sloan School of Management,

students at, 15 8 Moniz, Antonio Egas, 1 0 1

prefrontal leucotomy, 1 0 1 , 10 2 Monkey experiments

on need for attachment, 1 8 9 - 9 2 on sympathy, 19 5

Montague, Read, 4 1 , 45, 67, 69 Montana, Joe, 5

Monte Carlo fallacy, 66n Mood

and prefrontal cortex, 1 5 2 and problem-solving, 246 of schizophrenics, 42

Morality, 166, 169

and emotions, 1 7 1 - 7 4

in personal scenarios, 17 9 and psychopaths, 184

moral decisions, 1 7 5 - 7 6 and brain, 1 7 7

and trolley scenarios, 1 7 6 - 7 8 and warfare, 1 7 9 - 8 0

and psychopaths, 169, 1 7 0 and religion, 1 7 8 - 7 9

and sympathy, 180, 1 8 1 - 8 3 Mortgages, subprime, 87-89

\ 297

M R I (magnetic resonance imaging), and back pain, 1 6 1 - 6 5 , 235

Mystery

and math problems, 2 3 0 - 3 1 poker as, 230

Narrowing, perceptual, 98-99 National Institute of Mental Health,

A D H D research in, 1 1 3 National Transportation Safety Board

on air fatality rate, 2 5 1 - 5 2

on Flight 2 3 2 performance, 1 2 7

Nature Neuroscience, game-playing computer report in, 18 3

Neanderthals, brain of, 100 Nebraska Medical Center, C R M in,

* 5 5 Negativity bias, 81

Neural pluralism, 2 1 0 Neuroscience, 1 5 , 1 7 , 248

New England Journal of Medicine, back-pain articles in, 1 6 2 , 164

New England Patriots passing formation of, 5 - 6

in 2002 Super Bowl, 1 - 4 , 7 - 8 , 27 New Hampshire presidential primary

endorsement (2008), 1 9 6 - 9 8 New York City, A D H D research in,

1 1 3

Nichomachean Ethics, The (Aris­ totle), 1 0 7 - 8

Nietzsche, Friedrich, 248 Nixon, Richard, 204

Novel problems, reason required for, 2 4 6 - 4 7

Nucleus accumbens (NAcc), 34, 1 1 4 in adolescents, 1 1 4

and certainty, 243

and consumer choice, 200, 2 0 1 , 202, 2 0 2 - 3

and dopamine, 3 4 - 3 5 , 200 and emotions, 248

and temptation, 89

Obama, Barack, 19 6

Odean, Terrance, 78

Olds, James, 3 4 - 3 5