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Analysis by product
Renaissance Capital
20 June 2019
Russian oil & gas
Russian export statistics are confusing to a certain degree, as some data points vary in different industry publications even though they refer to one source (Federal Customs Service). The issue was highlighted by former President Dmitry Medvedev on 12 February 2010, at a meeting at Omsk when he called for the introduction of a unified accounting system for refined product exports (this has not been achieved to date). In this report, we will be using the Federal Customs Service statistics for total product exports and data from Argus (which takes its data from the Ministry of Energy) for company-by- company specification.
According to the Federal Customs Service, Russian oil product exports increased by |
Exports were up by 1% last year… |
1.1% YoY to 150.1mnt in 2018, after reaching an all-time high of 171.5mnt in 2015. The |
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growth was mainly driven by an 8% increase in diesel fuels exports, which was driven by |
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the increased efforts in refining modernisation by major Russian VICs, which caused a |
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rebalancing between diesel and fuel oil, resulting in more fuel oil being refined to diesel. |
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In 2018, fuel oil share in Russia’s oil product export mix declined to a historically low level of 39% (vs 42% in 2017), followed closely by gas oil (37%). Automotive gasoline has historically had the lowest share of product exports, which in 2018 amounted to only 3% (Figure 100). This share has increased from 2.5% in 2014 as Russian refineries caught up with European countries’ higher standards of automotive fuel. Still, we consider the number given by the Federal Customs Service low: it represents only automotive gasoline exported, whereas European refineries (which are higher-quality than Russian refineries on average) tend to purchase straight-run gasoline and naphtha from Russian oil companies. The share of other petroleum products exports (including naphtha) increased to 21.5% in 2018 from 20.6% in 2017.
…led by a 8% increase in diesel exports
Figure 100: Export volumes by product, 2005-2018, kt (unless otherwise stated)
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
YoY |
% of total |
Fuel oil |
45,843 |
47,534 |
55,521 |
61,470 |
63,851 |
72,013 |
71,720 |
75,952 |
84,780 |
87,258 |
89,207 |
73,527 |
62,586 |
58,841 |
-6% |
39% |
Gas oil |
33,767 |
36,057 |
35,725 |
35,526 |
37,461 |
40,549 |
35,419 |
41,156 |
42,140 |
47,399 |
51,021 |
48,603 |
50,914 |
54,798 |
8% |
37% |
Gasoline |
5,922 |
6,269 |
5,947 |
4,453 |
4,501 |
2,963 |
3,062 |
3,204 |
4,334 |
4,177 |
4,746 |
5,216 |
4,340 |
4,210 |
-3% |
3% |
Total |
96,451 |
102,279 |
110,906 |
115,400 |
120,577 |
131,340 |
124,904 |
137,954 |
151,379 |
164,837 |
171,535 |
156,016 |
148,413 |
150,052 |
1% |
100% |
Source: Source: InfoTEK, Federal Customs Service, Renaissance Capital
In value terms, gas oil continued to contribute the largest share of total exports in 2018, after taking the lead in 2016 for the first time since 2009. Gas oil accounted for around 42% of export value in 2018, compared with a 30% share of fuel oil. The share of fuel oil in total export proceeds peaked in 2011 at 48%. The decreased share is the result of higher light products yields and the decreased share of exports. Gasoline’s share in value terms was 3.2% (compared to 3.6% the year before), although as we have said before this does not include naphtha exports. The average gasoline export price increased by 23% YoY in 2018, lagging behind both diesel (+33%) and fuel oil (+31%).
Figure 101: Export value by product, 2005-2018, $mn (unless otherwise stated)
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
YoY |
% of total |
|
||
Gas oil |
16,190 |
20,246 |
21,441 |
32,593 |
17,886 |
25,696 |
31,683 |
36,741 |
37,633 |
40,803 |
25,853 |
17,642 |
23,209 |
33,174 |
|
43% |
|
42% |
|
|
Fuel oil |
10,196 |
13,719 |
18,211 |
30,725 |
20,093 |
31,280 |
43,533 |
48,959 |
50,350 |
49,025 |
26,382 |
15,494 |
18,927 |
23,365 |
|
23% |
|
30% |
|
|
Gasoline |
2,477 |
3,404 |
3,409 |
3,191 |
1,877 |
1,845 |
2,642 |
2,529 |
3,262 |
3,162 |
2,481 |
2,015 |
2,083 |
2,487 |
|
19% |
|
3% |
|
|
Total |
33,650 |
44,218 |
51,470 |
78,325 |
46,795 |
69,424 |
91,310 |
103,429 |
109,168 |
115,649 |
67,403 |
45,952 |
58,244 |
78,109 |
34% |
|
100% |
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Source: Source: InfoTEK, Federal Customs Service, Renaissance Capital |
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Figure 102: Refined products average export prices, 2005-2018, $/t (unless otherwise stated) |
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|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
YoY |
||||
Gas oil |
479 |
562 |
600 |
917 |
477 |
|
634 |
895 |
893 |
893 |
861 |
507 |
363 |
456 |
|
605 |
|
33% |
|
|
Fuel oil |
222 |
289 |
328 |
500 |
315 |
434 |
607 |
645 |
594 |
562 |
296 |
211 |
302 |
|
397 |
|
31% |
|
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Gasoline |
418 |
543 |
573 |
717 |
417 |
|
623 |
863 |
789 |
753 |
757 |
523 |
386 |
480 |
|
591 |
|
23% |
|
|
Total |
349 |
432 |
464 |
679 |
388 |
|
529 |
731 |
750 |
721 |
702 |
393 |
295 |
392 |
|
521 |
|
33% |
|
|
Source: Source: InfoTEK, Federal Customs Service, Renaissance Capital
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