Forster N. - Maximum performance (2005)(en)

470 MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE

administer emergency medical care. Dupont has been working on combat uniforms that will be able to change colours on demand as the environment changes (Gengler, 2003).

Cybernetics has also emerged as another new frontier of technology, representing the merging of mechanical and biological systems. One of the first technologies that fused microprocessors with humans was the Cochlear implant, first developed in 1985 (Clarke, 1999): 500 000 patients in 50 countries now use this bionic ear, a device that is hard-wired directly into the central nervous system. In the near future, it will be integrated directly into the brain. After 12 years of development and a successful four-year trial of the world’s first artificial cornea, tens of thousands of blind people can now have their sight restored. The synthetic cornea is made of a special combination of new plastics that have proved to be comfortable and long-lasting, and allow surrounding tissue to grow onto the lens, thus overcoming the old problem of rejection (Hickman, 2002). The development of improved nano-processor implants could enable the development of expanded memory, increased thought speed or even the bypassing of external sensory organs. In other words, the direct ‘wet-wiring’ of the human brain is now theoretically possible; it is no longer science fiction. In one of those ‘stranger than fiction’ true-life stories, the cyber-performance artist, Stelarc, once asked British surgeons to operate on him to provide him with a third ear that could act as an Internet antenna. An ‘extra’ ear was to have been grown using his skin cells and this would then be implanted onto his body, just behind one of his real ears. Once established it could have then been wired up to detect sound waves transmitted over the Internet, and via implants to his brain, allow Stelarc to hear them (Lynch, 1999).

Kevin Warwick, Professor of Cybernetics at Reading University, was the first human being to have a chip implanted in his body, in 1998. Since 2000, he has been using a second-generation chip that was implanted directly into his nervous system, allowing direct two-way communication with his computer. In March 2002, he and his wife both had microchips implanted in their spines in order to record their emotions on a computer, and then relay these back to the Warwicks. The goal of this experiment is to develop true human–computer interactions via electronic ‘telepathy’, with a long-term objective being direct mind-to-mind interactions between humans, computers and robots. Through these biotechnologies humans will acquire a cyborg-like quality, as personal communication devices become directly integrated into our bodies. Soon it may be possible to download information directly into the human brain from computers and vice versa. The wet-wiring of soldiers linked to locating satellites and strategic military centres may be achieved by the end of this decade (Warwick, 1998, 2002).

LEADERSHIP AND PEOPLE MANAGEMENT 471

Stephen Hawking, regarded by many commentators as the world’s greatest living physicist, has commented,

There is a danger that computers will take over the world. Computer power is advancing so fast that it will soon render irrelevant those few advantages that humans imagine they alone possess – emotions, intuition, morality, empathy and social skills. Even these nebulous qualities are now being taught to robots. If very complicated chemical modules can operate in humans to make them intelligent, then equally intelligent complicated electronic circuits can also make computers act in an intelligent way [ ] we need to develop, as quickly as possible, technologies that enable a direct connection between brain and computer, so that artificial brains contribute to human intelligence rather than opposing it.

(Cited by Paul, 2000)

And, according to Andy Clark, Professor of Philosophy and Cognitive Science at the UK’s University of Sussex, ‘We shall be cyborgs, not in the merely superficial sense of combining flesh and wires, but in the more profound sense of being human-technology symbionts, with our minds and selves spread across biological brains and non-biological circuitry’ (cited by Paul, 2000; Romei, 2001). The gates have been unlocked and there will be a traumatic struggle over these new technologies in the near future, between the world’s economic elites, who stand to gain great wealth and power from these, and ‘techno-luddites’ who will oppose their introduction.

On a lighter note, the impact of new technologies on one of humanity’s oldest preoccupations is highlighted in four recent examples.

False promises

In the US late last month, a Silicon Valley Computer programmer was arrested for threatening a company he believed was crippling his business with penis augmentation propaganda. Charles Booher threatened to send a package of anthrax spores to the company, to disable an employee with a bullet and torture him with a power drill and an ice pick; and to hunt down and castrate employees unless they removed him from their email list. The object of Booher’s ire – the advertisers for a product called, ‘The Only Reliable, Medically Approved Penis Enhancement’ – blamed a rival firm, which they said was giving the penis enhancement business, ‘a bad name’. Now there’s a tough assignment.

(Emma Tom, The Australian, 12 December 2003)

Men not required

A world’s first Internet site, designed to help lesbian couples discreetly find suitable sperm, will be launched at the weekend. The www. mannotincluded.com website promises to offer a completely anonymous service for lesbian couples hoping to become parents. Hopeful parents can

472 MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE

look through the Man Not Included database and compile a shortlist of three donors. Man Not Included plans to expand to other countries so lesbian couples outside Britain can access the service.

(Tobler, 2002)

XXX

Someone who has spent a lot of time thinking about technologies and sex is Eric White, designer of a virtual sex machine now available from a USbased online company called VR Innovations. Billed as the world’s first ‘adult gratification peripheral’, the device is connected to the penis at one end and a PC at the other. The user downloads video footage of women performing sex acts, which he feels via a ‘teledildonic technology’. The device costs $US369.99 (plus shipping). ‘Professional entertainers and amateurs alike will be able to sexually communicate with their fans,’ White enthuses.

(Abridged from Romei, 2001)

Cyber-sex

By 2029 technology will have permanently changed the nature of sex. Virtual sex will be preferable to real sex, because it will provide sensations that are more intense and pleasurable than conventional sex. It is the ultimate safe sex, as there is no risk of pregnancy or disease. We will have sex and relationships with machines and these machines will have a full range of human emotions including sadness, empathy and jealousy.

(Abridged from Stewart, 1999)

New technologies are fast becoming intrinsic components of our daily lives and rapidly infiltrating the organizations we work for and the homes we live in. They will become increasingly organic, as they become – literally – part of us, rather than something ‘out there’, as they have been throughout human history. They will become part of the furniture, the walls, the urban fabric, the clothes we wear and even our bodies. Intelligent networks will link all facets of our lives. Computers and knowbots will take over more routine administrative, design and manufacturing processes in organizations. Commentators on this technological revolution, such as Ray Kurzweil and Dennis Warwick, predict that emergent technologies will also shatter the boundary between humans and machines. It is now quite possible that these technologies will eventually become indistinguishable from us and, at some time in the not too distant future, intelligent artilects may even supersede human beings as the dominant life form on this planet. Kurzweil believes that the next stage of evolution on the Earth will be the transition from carbon-based circuitry to new life forms based on mechanical–electronic–carbon circuitry. That magical thing we call ‘consciousness’ might be combined with these super-artilects, and

LEADERSHIP AND PEOPLE MANAGEMENT 473

allow us to retain our position as the dominant species on the planet (Kurzweil, 1999).

One step towards this goal was announced on 3 March 2003, when Francis Crick published research that claimed to have identified the location of the human soul and the cluster of neurons where human consciousness and an individual’s sense of self reside (Leake, 2003). Rob Brooks, the Director of the Brooks Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at MIT, commenting on the blurring of human/artilect boundaries, observed, ‘In just twenty years, the boundary between reality and fantasy will be rent asunder. Just five years from now that boundary will be breached in ways that are unimaginable to most people today, as the daily use of the World Wide Web would have been ten years ago’ (cited by Romei, 2001). Even hard-headed organizations, such as the International Bar Association (IBA), have begun to consider the legal issues raised by these developments. At the IBA Conference in San Fancisco during September 2003, a group of lawyers held a mock trial to evaluate a motion from a conscious computer, who had filed an injunction to prevent its creator from disconnecting it (Kurzweil, 2003). The computer lost – this time.

While Ray Kurzweil has often described his predictions as ‘conservative’, some commentators have been critical of his projections for the future. However, it is significant that every prediction he made in his first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines (1989), came to pass in the 1990s (for example, that a computer would beat a chess Grand Master). Even if he is only half right, the revolution that he and many others predict is upon us, and is likely to form the battleground for many of the great ethical and political debates of the first two or three decades of this century. There will be a traumatic struggle over the use of genetic and other technologies, and fierce conflicts between those who want to push on with these and those who want to stop their progress. However, at some point in the not-too-distant future, if these technological advances continue, human beings may be eclipsed by these artilects. In the words of one leading researcher in this area, ‘this century’s dominant question will be, “Should human beings construct artilects or not?” There will be two violently opposed responses: those for whom constructing artilects represents human destiny, and another group who fear that artilects will decide one day that the human race is a pest to be destroyed’ (Hugo de Garis, Head of Starlab, a deep future research centre in Brussels, abridged from Paul, 2000 and Devine, 2000).

With these sobering thoughts in mind, and assuming we don’t destroy our planet and ourselves in the meantime, here are some predictions for this century and beyond:

474 MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE

2005: PCs are rapidly evolving into tiny devices that combine highcapacity computing, Internet and web access capabilities with realtime wireless video communication. Digital ink and real-time penenabled applications are commonplace. Real-time and reliable universal language translators are becoming commonplace. Traditional web and grid computing services are fast evolving into autonomic systems, built on hardware and software that can automatically fix problems such as viruses and bugs, and solve conflicts between different software formats. Originally marketed by IBM in 2003 as ‘e-business on demand’, these systems allow users to simply turn on the computing power they require only when they need it, the idea being that users only pay for what they use at any given moment in time. This also means that organizations do not have to waste time and money on expensive servers or network capacity that never gets used.

2007: all new top-of-the-range automobiles are being equipped with inclusive telematic and haptic operating systems. These include dashboard computing, hands-free/voice-activated voice and email systems, anti-collision radars, thermal-imaging systems to improve visibility in bad weather, on-board detection systems that warn of faults and other devices, all combined into systemic, quasi-intelligent operating systems. For navigation, automatic satellite-based global positioning systems are becoming more standard features. The kids are safely occupied in the back seat with their own in-car entertainment systems where they can choose from a range of interactive virtual programmes.

2010: the 20-year reign of the personal computer comes to an end, having evolved into single personalized assistants (PAs) that combine voice-activated video-telephone facilities, fax, email and access to a smorgasbord of on-line Internet facilities, websites, information data bases and software programs. Active contact lenses and ultralight head microphones, linked to the Internet, now allow people to read email, surf the web, download music and films and make video calls from anywhere to anywhere on the globe. Our PAs know our personal preferences and daily schedules, and alert us to meetings and other ‘things to do’. They can liaise directly with the PAs of colleagues and clients to arrange or reschedule meetings. They know their owners’ voices and handprints and, if they are stolen, can inform the police where they are being ‘held’ via their global satellite connections. By now, Psion and Palm Pilot organizers and Qualcom and Nokia Personal Digital Assistants can be found only in museums.

Old-style manual keyboards have almost disappeared, having been replaced by voice-activated software or virtual light boards. Tiny light

LEADERSHIP AND PEOPLE MANAGEMENT 475

chips embedded inside PAs or cell phones beam an image of a keyboard onto any hard, flat surface, allowing the user to ‘type’ on this. Sophisticated scanning software detects the subtle movements of the user’s fingers and converts these into letters. Screen technology has also been revolutionized and computer screens have disappeared, with the advent of heat-free organic electroluminescence, making it possible to project images onto any ambient surface. A bedroom ceiling, paper or even clothes can be used to transmit moving images from PAs. Lifelike, real-time holographic images can be projected from PAs and video-telephones, through augmented-reality systems, consigning video-conferencing technologies to the scrapheap. Digital chopsticks, first introduced by Sony in 2006, allow users to pluck a file directly from a computer or wallboard display and deposit it onto another screen, say on a TV at home or on the increasingly popular heliodisplays, devices that are able to project images into thin air by modifying the structure of the air molecules above a projector.

2013: beams of sound can be transmitted with the accuracy of a laser beam, singling out specific individuals for private messages that no one else can hear. This will enable sports coaches to communicate directly with their players on the field and enable secure communications on battlefields.

2015: all clothing and footwear is now manufactured from smart fabrics, intelligent polymers and electronically conducive artificial yarns, consigning natural materials like wool and cotton to history. These warm up when it is cold and cool down when it is hot. They can change colour on demand and, when instructed, can reflect the wearer’s emotional state – something that is becoming more popular in courtship rituals. Phonebands have been integrated into clothing for more than a decade and people listen to incoming calls simply by inserting their fingertips into their ears and speaking into collarmounted microphones. Computing and communications devices are also woven into these fabrics, enabling the wearer to download performance information directly onto these. Sportspeople wear clothing that can repair injuries and can warn athletes about movements that could result in injuries. The world’s first commercially available warming–cooling/MP3 player/wireless mobile phone combination jackets featured in O’Neil’s snowboarding clothing collection during 2004–5 are now fetching thousands of dollars in antique technology auctions.

All soldiers now wear smart combat suits that are linked to satellite and ground communication systems. These can also repair and clean themselves, are fully waterproof and temperature sensitive, and can

476 MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE

alter camouflage patterns according to the terrain and available cover. These outfits can also monitor heart rates, keep soldiers nourished and, if injured, can deliver life-saving drugs while their condition is automatically relayed to medical rescue teams and HQ. The cute beagles that had been used for many years to detect drugs and other illegal imports at airports have been largely replaced by sniffer-bots.

2020: the genetic causes of all human diseases have been identified, and advances in genetically modified foods now promise to end human malnutrition and starvation.

2023: the first generation of smart domestic robots has emerged, carrying out simple tasks such as washing up, vacuuming and, via their links with remote sensors on doors and windows and surveillance cameras, acting as household watchdogs. Psychologists and psychiatrists report a rapid increase in the number of adults and children reporting that they are forming emotional attachments to these robots.

2025: intelligent houses with Home Information Systems (HIS) have become widespread in industrialized countries. Shortly before waking up in the morning, motion detectors have switched the house’s lighting and heating on, the coffee is brewing and the toast ready when you have stepped out of your shower. You watch morning TV that automatically features the weather and snow reports, because you work in a ski resort. It is linked up in real time to the world’s stock markets, lets you know the value of your stocks and shares, and also makes some suggestions for changing your stock portfolio. After breakfast, you get into your eco-friendly transmodule (‘automobile’ or ‘car’ in oldspeak), which automatically adjusts the seat, mirrors and heating to your personal requirements. It reminds you that an annual system service is due at the end of the week. In some cities, you may drive along handsfree smartways, guided by a network of satellite-linked computers and road sensors. Anti-collision radar and automatic brakes protect you, while you prepare for your 8.00 meeting or just relax and watch an interactive video.

When you arrive home in the evening, a facial recognition camera recognizes you and opens the front door. The house lights and heating came on automatically just before you arrived. Your HIS enables you to check your family members’ daily schedules and when they will be home. This system can also pay your household bills automatically as they come in from your on-line bank or utilities. Your microwave vocally suggests a recipe for your evening meal, based on its reading of the bar codes on the food contents in your intelligent fridge (‘food’

LEADERSHIP AND PEOPLE MANAGEMENT 477

now comes under the generic heading of ‘neutraceuticals’, which combine genetically enhanced organic foods with nano-drugs). From this you can also identify your shopping needs and automatically send your orders to a virtual supermarket for home delivery. Many homes are now ‘eco-friendly’, with sophisticated recycling systems and improved building insulation, with heat and energy drawn from solar panels and recycled household waste. These are known as HERS (Home Environmental Regulation Systems).

2035: genetic manipulation of human sperm, eggs and embryos becomes widespread. Parents are now able to make decisions about their children’s appearance, height, IQ and emotional intelligence before they are conceived. Proposals are put forward to create groups of headless personal clones to ‘harvest’ for body parts in case of illness. A heated ethical debate rages over this issue.

2040: smart construction materials with electronic nanosensors built into their molecular structures become integrated into buildings, regulating warmth and air flows and warning against structural problems. Billions of nanochips are embedded in everyday objects: cars, clothes, shoes, furniture and walls. Smart sensors and voice activation have largely replaced switches and buttons on many devices.

2045: the world’s first operational quantum bio-computer goes online with processing capabilities that far exceed the human brain. This represents a huge leap in computing power and the genesis of the world’s first artilects.

2050: human beings and artilects are now connected (wet-wired) directly, allowing vast amounts of information to be directly downloaded into the human brain, without the need for years of teaching and rote learning during childhood. Humans can now issue commands to computers by thought alone, and vice versa, via inaudible ultrasound waves. Artilects can now understand and respond to human emotions.

2055: a second generation of intelligent robopets and robodoms (domestic robots) emerges. They carry out all domestic jobs in households – cooking, cleaning, ordering shopping, gardening, baby-sitting duties – and can teach children via their wet-wired implants. They are now being used routinely in mundane, repetitive or dangerous jobs. Artilects’ rights activists call for new laws to protect these robots.

2060: the first space mission lands on Mars, with a crew of artilects. Others soon follow. These start accessing large quantities of frozen

478 MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE

water, first identified by unmanned probes 60 years earlier, for power and to create oxygen reservoirs. Using nanobots, they start building the habitats that the first wave of human settlers will live in. In 2063, the discovery of primitive life forms below the surface leads to calls to terraform the planet for human colonization, to help cope with overpopulation and ecological pressures on the earth’s environment. After ten years’ preparatory work by the robot crews and nanobots, the first nano-conditioned human settlers (astronoids) arrive. Nano-condition- ing is now an essential pre-launch bioengineering procedure to enable astronoids to overcome the negative effects of two years’ weightlessness and exposure to high levels of cosmic radiation while travelling to Mars and other planets in the solar system.

2065: microscopic nanorobots are now used routinely to create building materials, manufacture consumer goods, clean up pollution, zap cholesterol from the blood stream, and hunt down viruses and diseases in the human body. Molecular factories are now building everything from running shoes to houses.

2075: scientists have created artificial lungs, kidneys, livers, hearts, legs, arms and eyes through genetic engineering. It is announced that further advances in bio, quantum and nano-technologies have made it possible to create the first conscious cyborg artilect (human–machine entity). A long ethical debate ensues, but the go-ahead is given to create ‘Adana’.

2085: the average lifespan of the first generation of genetically and mechanically enhanced alpha-humanoids is now 130 years, up from 55 in 1900.

2090: oil and other organic energy sources have almost run out, but cold nuclear fusion has been harnessed to generate free non-polluting power for ‘humanity’. Orbiting solar panels have also been launched to beam down solar electrical power by microwave, to help with the planet’s ever-growing energy needs.

2100: Adana is ‘born’ and conscious machine-artilects are emerging in large numbers, marking the next step forward in the evolution of life on Earth. Humanoids can now download (or ‘merge’ as it is now described) their consciousnesses with these artilects and, as a result, can live forever.

2105: the first deep-space sub-light starship is launched with a crew of cyborg artilects. Many years later, we are visited for the first time by another sentient species from our Galaxy. They ask if they can to speak to our leader, Adana . . .

LEADERSHIP AND PEOPLE MANAGEMENT 479

Conclusion: a brave new (organizational) world?

The push back against the machine is coming and its coming from the very high-end. That’s not to say we don’t want technology. We want it on demand but not ever-present. Many people feel a great loss now, because we’ve turbo-charged everything but we haven’t figured out a way to enhance satisfaction. People need more space. We should be afraid of machines because they actually diminish our creativity, diminish our capacity to think about unrelated variables and form new perspectives.

(Marian Malzman, an executive of international advertising agency Euro RSCG, in a talk to Australian marketing executives, cited in The Australian, 8 August 2000)

Coming back down to earth after this journey into the distant future, what is likely to happen over the next 20 years? The acceleration in technological evolution described in this chapter will undoubtedly have many benefits for humanity. The Internet will continue to make it easier, quicker and less expensive for people to communicate with one another. New communication media and knowledge management systems should improve our ability to access and process increasing amounts of complex knowledge and information. They will contribute to the globalization of trade and commerce and, perhaps, foster greater global political, social and cultural freedom and integration as more and more of the world’s population comes on-line. They hold out the promise of ending disease, malnutrition and starvation. They will continue to revolutionize all manufacturing and service industries. They may create new business opportunities for entrepreneurs and wealth for more of the world’s population and, maybe, drive the creation of a ‘post-capitalist’ world (Drucker, 1993).

However, working in this environment will also create enormous challenges for employers and employees and new strategies are required to manage the impact of emerging technologies. Successful leadership and people management in high-tech virtual organizations will continue to utilize many traditional practices, but new technologies will not only continue to accelerate the pace of change in organizations, they will soon begin to do more ‘thinking’ and ‘managing’ for us. In the near future, our grandchildren may be able to download information directly from computers to their brains, and they may also be cooperating with intelligent, self-learning entities when they join the workforce in the 2030s and 2040s. They may be able to enhance their memories and learning capabilities both through designer ‘mind’ drugs and, in all probability, through hard-wired computer implants. In 50 years’ time, our great-grandchildren may look back on us in the same way that we look back on pre-industrial societies.

There are enough indications in this chapter to warn us that these rapid technological changes will need to be carefully monitored. Current