Novosibirsk international model un 2012

BACKGROUD GUIDE for the United Nations Security Council

The Situation in Libya

Author: Pavel A. Luzin

PhD student, IMEMO

Russian Academy of Sciences

Novosibirsk 2012

Contents

Contents 2

Introduction 2

1. Col. Qaddafi’s Libya as enfant terrible in international politics: 1969 – 2007 4

2. Interests of leading powers in Libya and the region around 5

3. Political landscape of Jamahiriya before the revolt of 2011: Col. Qaddafi’s family, institutions, tribes and religion 6

4. Why has revolt happened? Political causes of Libyan events 8

5. Who has revolted? Main actors 9

6. Influence of Libyan events in the Northern and Central Africa and Mediterranean region 9

Conclusion 10

Possibilities 10

Additional Information 11

Introduction

In February 2011 the revolt against Qaddafi has begun in Libya after the beginning of revolts in Tunisia and Egypt, and turmoil in other Arab states. But in distinction from Tunisian and Egyptian revolts Libyan revolt has become a bloody civil war at once.

On one side the governmental troops and militias and pro-Qaddafi combatants are fighting for the political reconstitution. On another side the rebels with the center in Benghazi, the second largest city in Libya, and some high-ranking deserters and renegades are fighting against Qaddafi’s regime. Also the rebels have established National Transitional Council (NTC) which claims functions of Libyan provisional government particularly in international relations.

Despite Libya is on periphery of world politics its turbulence is a stressful challenge for Europe and the West at all. The aspects of this challenge exist in some sensitive fields: cross-regional security and stability, penetration of refugees and illegal migrants in European continent, political reputation of western elites etc. So ignoring of Libyan revolt is impossible due to carrying weight reasons.

But there are complex issues of necessity and measures of world community’s interference in Libyan affairs as well as will such interference in accordance with the United Nations Charter? Politicians should also consider the engagement of different states with dissimilar interests, for example, interests of the leading European Union members, interests of Russia, Israel, Turkey and interests of the members of Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG) etc.

France, Britain, Italy and the USA newly refer to the concept of humanitarian intervention since Kosovo in 1999 but there is no assurance that the fall of Jamahiriya in Libya will escape the risk of so called humanitarian disaster. Russia speaks about prohibition of interference in interim affairs of sovereign state but doesn’t speak how the explosive influence of Libyan revolt in regional stability can be eliminated. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as leading Arab states try to overthrow Col. Qaddafi because of his contradictions with conservative Islamic monarchies in Northern African affairs but their strategic political goals don’t in phase with political goals, principles and values of the Western states.

So, the members of the United Nations Security Council are facing the dramatic issue in Libya when any decision for each state will mean the high responsibility for results.