2. Future Predictions by 2050 or 2100

      In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the IPCC estimated that by 2050, 150 million people could be displaced by climate change-related phenomena, such as floods, storms, desertification, and increasing water scarcity. [FN288] To put this estimate in perspective, environmental refugees *749 could comprise more than 1.5% of the predicted global population of nine billion people in 2050. [FN289] Advocacy groups and social scientists have produced a burgeoning literature about this category of migrants and recent studies estimate even more people to be displaced by the same time. [FN290]

      Perhaps the best-known estimate for future migration forced by climate change was made by Professor Norman Myers of Oxford University, a widely known expert on this topic. In 1995, he observed that “global warming could put large numbers of people at risk of displacement by the middle of next century if not before.” [FN291] He predicted the existence of more than twenty-five million environmental refugees (ten million recognized, fifteen million unrecognized) in 2002, which was greater than the eighteen million then officially recognized refugees (political, religious, and ethnic). [FN292] Looking ahead to 2050, he argued that “when global warming takes hold there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration, and by sea-level rise and coastal flooding.” [FN293] Regarding the regional estimation, Myers and Kent continued:

       Preliminary estimates indicate the total [number] of people at risk of sea-level rise in Bangladesh could be 26 million, in Egypt 12 million, in China 73 million, in India 20 million, and elsewhere 31 million, making an aggregate total of 162 million. At the same time, at least 50 million people could be at risk through increased droughts and other climate dislocations. [FN294]

      These estimates are, however, criticized by other scholars, including Dominic Kniveton, as stemming from a very rudimentary methodology. [FN295] Yet, they have become the yardstick adopted in most of the reports and studies in the absence of a more precise data set. [FN296]

       *750 Sir Nicholas Stern, in his authoritative review of climate change, maintained that Myers and Kent's earlier estimate of 150-200 million “has not been rigorously tested” and the estimate of 200 million is “problematic” and “conservative.” [FN297] But, echoing the concern that the climate change will lead to hundreds of millions of climate change migrants, the Stern Review estimated that the scale of migration will reach 200 million by 2050. [FN298]

      Other estimates vary dramatically in terms of “numbers, time frame and causes.” [FN299] Friends of the Earth, an international non-governmental organization (“NGO”) based in Australia, predicts 150 million climate refugees worldwide, including 1 million from small island states, by 2050. [FN300] Offering the highest estimate, Christian Aid estimates that one billion people will be forcibly displaced by 2050, principally arising from climate change-induced natural disasters. [FN301] In another estimate, Nicholls suggests that between 50 and 200 million people could be displaced as a result of climate change by 2080. [FN302] However, most of the available predictions, in general figure out of about 200-250 million environmental migrants by middle of the century. [FN303]