If Assad Falls in Syria

NYT EDITORIAL Published: August 6, 2012

President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces are continuing to kill Syrians in huge numbers, but the opposition’s chances of prevailing look better than they did six months ago. The challenge for the United States and its partners is not just to step up the pressure, but also to prepare the ground for a constructive future for Syria.

The opposition scored a psychological victory on Monday when Prime Minister Riyad Farid Hijab defected to Jordan. Opposition leaders said that he brought along at least two ministers and three military officers. Mr. Hijab, a Sunni Muslim, wasn’t part of Mr. Assad’s inner circle, but he was the most senior civilian official and his defection is another sign of stress on the regime.

The rebels are challenging the Syrian Army in the cities of Damascus and Aleppo, but the fighting is likely to get worse. The conflict has already intensified splits among the Sunni, Alawite and Christian communities; displaced thousands within Syria; sent thousands of refugees into neighboring countries and threatened to destabilize the region. And there is increasing evidence that Al Qaeda and other jihadists have joined the fight.

The most viable diplomatic solution was a plan by the United Nations and the Arab League that would have eased Mr. Assad out of power and begun a democratic transition. But Russia — with Iran, Mr. Assad’s main protector — ensured it would fail by arming the regime and refusing to impose sanctions.

The Obama administration and NATO have wisely resisted direct military involvement. That may change if, for example, Mr. Assad tries to use chemical weapons against his people.

For months, the administration has been increasing its involvement with the rebels — organizing a 130-nation pressure group, working to unify opposition factions, helping them plan a political transition, providing intelligence and medical aid and vetting which groups are extremists and which should get arms.

The administration has also begun to think beyond Mr. Assad’s fall by planning how to cope with a new wave of refugees, maintain basic municipal services, restart a devastated economy and prevent the security forces from disintegrating. American officials seem to have learned the lesson of Iraq, where the government collapsed, leaving chaos behind. There is no guarantee Syria’s rebels will want the help, but the administration has to be prepared to invest real money in these plans if they do.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will have a chance to emphasize support for the rebels when she visits Turkey later this week. The United States also needs to intensify sanctions on Syria and keep urging Russia to cooperate in ending the conflict.

BBC 21 August 2012 Last updated at 01:35 GMT

Obama warns Syria chemical weapons use may spark US action

US President Barack Obama has said the use of chemical weapons by Syria would be a "red line" that would change his thinking on intervention in the crisis.

He said he had "at this point not ordered military engagement".

But he added: "There would be enormous consequences if we start seeing movement on the chemical weapons front or the use of chemical weapons."

Earlier the new UN special envoy to Syria faced criticism for refusing to say whether President Assad must quit.

President Obama, speaking to reporters at a White House briefing, said the deployment or use of biological weapons would widen the conflict in the region.

He said: "It doesn't just include Syria. It would concern allies in the region, including Israel, and it would concern us."

He warned President Bashar al-Assad and "other players on the ground" about the use or movement of such weapons.

He said: "A red line for us is [if] we see a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around, or being utilised. That would change my calculus."

Syria holds the world's fourth-largest stockpile of chemical weapons. Last month a Syrian foreign ministry spokesman said the weapons would never be deployed inside Syria.

However, the BBC's Kim Ghattas in Washington says the US has seen unconfirmed reports recently that the Syrian authorities have been moving the country's chemical arms stockpile.

Fighting continued in several Syrian cities on Monday, including Damascus, Deraa and Aleppo.

A Japanese journalist, Mika Yamamoto, was killed by gunfire in Aleppo, the country's foreign ministry has confirmed.

Ms Yamamoto, 45, was a veteran war reporter, working for Japan Press.

The UN says more than 18,000 people have been killed in the conflict, 170,000 have fled Syria and 2.5 million need aid within the country.