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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT STOCKS

Preliminary data for February from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show stocks fell sharply across most categories. Crude inventories declined 4.2 mb m-o-m as imports fell 200 kb/d m-o-m to 2.9 mb/d, according to Kpler. Crude stocks remain at the bottom of the five-year range following destocking and refinery closures over the last few years. Oil product holdings also fell seasonally by 6.9 mb with draws recorded in kerosene (-2.3 mb) linked to higher demand as well as gasoline (-0.7 mb), jet fuel (-0.2 mb) and fuel oil (-1 mb). Naphtha stocks increased.

Other stock developments

Chinese crude stocks continued to build at a rapid pace of around 1 mb/d in January and February, following a record stock increase of 1.4 mb/d in 4Q18, according to figures derived from IEA forecasts for crude production, refinery runs and customs crude import data. This implies that, over the last few months, China has absorbed most of the surplus barrels in the global crude oil market, whereas stocks in the OECD are little changed.

Short-term crude floating storage went up 5.5 mb in February to 24 mb, following builds in the Middle East Gulf, according to EA Gibson. The Middle East is now responsible for almost all of the global floating storage volumes following the imposition of sanctions against Iran.

Stockpiles in the 19 non-OECD countries covered by the JODI database fell 7.9 mb m-o-m in December to finish the year 2018 at 609 mb, 22.8 mb higher versus end-2017. Saudi crude stocks declined 39.6 mb during the year and, at 205 mb at the end of December, reached their lowest level since 2009. Saudi Arabia’s oil product holdings, by contrast, increased by 7.1 mb to 95 mb in response to higher refinery output and reduced product demand amidst higher prices.

Oil stocks in Singapore rose for the fourth straight month in February to reach 50 mb, their highest level since August 2017, according to Enterprise Singapore. As in recent months, most of the gains came from

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STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT

the bunker and fuel oil category, which increased 1.3 mb m-o-m and stood at the highest level in a year, in stark contrast with the OECD where fuel oil stocks have continued to decline in recent months. Sales of marine fuels in Singapore fell 9% year-on-year to 3.78 million tonnes, a three-year-low, according to figures from the country’s Maritime and Port Authority, as fewer ships called at the port during the Chinese New Year holidays. Fujairah’s stocks were almost unchanged in February, rising a mere 0.1 mb to 22 mb, data from S&P Global Platts showed. However, as in Singapore, fuel oil stocks went up, by 0.9 mb and reached their highest level since July 2018.

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT STOCKS

Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks

(in days of forward demand and million barrels of total oil)

1 Days of forw ard demand are based on average demand over the next three months