- •HIGHLIGHTS
- •TABLE OF CONTENTS
- •Supply cushion insures against losses
- •DEMAND
- •Summary
- •Fundamentals
- •OECD
- •OECD Americas
- •OECD Europe
- •Europe disaffection for diesel accelerated in 2018
- •OECD Asia Oceania
- •Non-OECD
- •China
- •India
- •Other Non-OECD
- •SUPPLY
- •Summary
- •OPEC crude oil supply
- •Non-OPEC overview
- •REFINING
- •Summary
- •Margins
- •OECD refinery throughput
- •Non-OECD refinery throughput
- •STOCKS
- •Summary
- •Recent OECD industry stock changes
- •OECD Americas
- •OECD Europe
- •OECD Asia Oceania
- •Other stock developments
- •PRICES
- •Market overview
- •Futures markets
- •Spot crude oil prices
- •Spot product prices
- •Freight
- •TABLES
- •Table 1: World Oil Supply And Demand
- •State of the Markets
- •State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019
- •State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2019
- •Fears of a Macro Slowdown Have Investors on Edge
- •Tech Rises to the Top
- •Nontraditional Industries Prime for Disruption
- •Beyond the Bay: Startups Extend to New Cities
- •Fundraising: Venture Dollars Climb from All Sides
- •VCs Raising More Capital with Each Trip Back to LPs
- •New Funds Move to Institutionalize Early Rounds
- •Diverse Pools of Capital Chase Innovation Returns
- •Next Wave of Capital Will Come After Lockups
- •M&A: Acquisitions Slow as Startups Aim for Growth
- •Opting for Growth Capital vs. an Early Exit
- •Across US, Valuations Climb for M&A
- •Bucking the Trend: Financial Acquisitions Mount
- •US Tech Looks To International Opportunities
- •Regulations: Potential New Hurdles for Exits
- •Tech Giants Spend Big but Now Face Scrutiny
- •Attractive Acquisition Values from Big 5 in Jeopardy
- •CFIUS Could Impact 20% of VC-Backed Acquisitions
- •Unicorns Rely on Capital Boosts From Abroad
- •A Steady Climb: Building Venture in Canada
- •Startup to Scale-Up: Canadians Face “Valley of Death”
- •As Foreign Capital Arrives, Toronto Cements Its Place
- •AI: An Opportunity for Canada to Lead the World
- •Appendix
- •Authors
- •Disclaimers
vk.com/id446425943
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT STOCKS
mb |
OECD Asia Oceania Middle |
mb |
OECD Asia Oceania Fuel Oil |
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80 |
Distillates Industry Stocks |
25 |
Industry Stocks |
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24 |
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75 |
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23 |
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70 |
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22 |
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65 |
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21 |
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60 |
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20 |
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19 |
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55 |
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18 |
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50 |
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|
17 |
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Jan |
Mar May Jul |
Sep Nov Jan |
Jan |
Mar May Jul |
Sep Nov Jan |
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Range 2014-2018 |
Avg 2014-2018 |
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Range 2014-2018 |
Avg 2014-2018 |
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2018 |
2019 |
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2018 |
2019 |
Preliminary data for February from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show stocks fell sharply across most categories. Crude inventories declined 4.2 mb m-o-m as imports fell 200 kb/d m-o-m to 2.9 mb/d, according to Kpler. Crude stocks remain at the bottom of the five-year range following destocking and refinery closures over the last few years. Oil product holdings also fell seasonally by 6.9 mb with draws recorded in kerosene (-2.3 mb) linked to higher demand as well as gasoline (-0.7 mb), jet fuel (-0.2 mb) and fuel oil (-1 mb). Naphtha stocks increased.
Other stock developments
Chinese crude stocks continued to build at a rapid pace of around 1 mb/d in January and February, following a record stock increase of 1.4 mb/d in 4Q18, according to figures derived from IEA forecasts for crude production, refinery runs and customs crude import data. This implies that, over the last few months, China has absorbed most of the surplus barrels in the global crude oil market, whereas stocks in the OECD are little changed.
Short-term crude floating storage went up 5.5 mb in February to 24 mb, following builds in the Middle East Gulf, according to EA Gibson. The Middle East is now responsible for almost all of the global floating storage volumes following the imposition of sanctions against Iran.
|
China Implied Crude Stock Changes |
mb |
Global Short-Term Crude Floating |
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|
(million barrels per day) |
|
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Storage |
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3 |
14 |
120 |
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||||
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Source: EA Gibson |
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13 |
100 |
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2 |
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12 |
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80 |
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11 |
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1 |
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60 |
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10 |
|
|
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||
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|
40 |
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0 |
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9 |
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20 |
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8 |
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-1 |
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7 |
0 |
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2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
Jan Mar May |
Jul |
Sep Nov Jan |
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Implied Balances Stock Change (LHS) |
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Range 2014-18 |
Average 2014-18 |
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2018 |
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2019 |
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Crude Supply (production + net imports) RHS |
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Stockpiles in the 19 non-OECD countries covered by the JODI database fell 7.9 mb m-o-m in December to finish the year 2018 at 609 mb, 22.8 mb higher versus end-2017. Saudi crude stocks declined 39.6 mb during the year and, at 205 mb at the end of December, reached their lowest level since 2009. Saudi Arabia’s oil product holdings, by contrast, increased by 7.1 mb to 95 mb in response to higher refinery output and reduced product demand amidst higher prices.
Oil stocks in Singapore rose for the fourth straight month in February to reach 50 mb, their highest level since August 2017, according to Enterprise Singapore. As in recent months, most of the gains came from
15 MARCH 2019 |
33 |
vk.com/id446425943
STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT
the bunker and fuel oil category, which increased 1.3 mb m-o-m and stood at the highest level in a year, in stark contrast with the OECD where fuel oil stocks have continued to decline in recent months. Sales of marine fuels in Singapore fell 9% year-on-year to 3.78 million tonnes, a three-year-low, according to figures from the country’s Maritime and Port Authority, as fewer ships called at the port during the Chinese New Year holidays. Fujairah’s stocks were almost unchanged in February, rising a mere 0.1 mb to 22 mb, data from S&P Global Platts showed. However, as in Singapore, fuel oil stocks went up, by 0.9 mb and reached their highest level since July 2018.
mb |
Singapore Weekly Bunker and Fuel |
mb |
Fujairah Oil Stocks |
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Oil Stocks |
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32 |
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|
25 |
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27 |
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20 |
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|
15 |
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22 |
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10 |
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17 |
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5 |
|
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|
12 |
Source: International Enterprise |
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0 |
Aug 17 |
Mar 18 |
Oct 18 |
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Jan |
Mar May |
Jul |
Sep Nov |
Jan 17 |
||||
|
Middle Distillates |
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Light Distillates |
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Range 2014-2018 |
5-yr Average |
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2018 |
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2019 |
Heavy Distillates |
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Source: FEDCom/S&P Global Platts |
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34 |
15 MARCH 2019 |
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT STOCKS
Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks
(in days of forward demand and million barrels of total oil)
|
|
Days1 |
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|
Million Barrels |
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|||
Days |
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Americas |
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|
mb |
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Americas |
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|||||
68 |
|
|
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1,750 |
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66 |
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1,650 |
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|
64 |
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62 |
|
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1,550 |
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|
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|
60 |
|
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|
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1,450 |
|
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|
|
58 |
|
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|
|
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|
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56 |
|
|
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1,350 |
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54 |
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52 |
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1,250 |
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|
Jan |
Mar |
May |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
Jan |
Mar |
May |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
|
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
|||||||
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2018 |
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2019 |
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2018 |
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2019 |
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Days |
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Europe |
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mb |
|
Europe |
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||
76 |
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1,050 |
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74 |
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1,000 |
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72 |
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
70 |
|
|
|
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|
|
950 |
|
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|
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|
68 |
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|
|
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|
66 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
900 |
|
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|
|
|
|
64 |
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
62 |
Mar |
May |
|
|
|
|
850 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
Jan |
Mar |
May |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
||
|
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
|||||||
|
2018 |
|
|
2019 |
|
|
2018 |
|
|
2019 |
|
|
|
Days |
|
Asia Oceania |
|
|
mb |
|
Asia Oceania |
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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||
58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
460 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
56 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
440 |
|
|
|
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|
|
54 |
|
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|
|
|
52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
420 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
400 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
46 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
380 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
360 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Mar |
May |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
Jan |
Mar |
May |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
|
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
|||||||
|
2018 |
|
|
2019 |
|
|
2018 |
|
|
2019 |
|
|
|
Days |
|
OECD Total Oil |
|
|
mb |
|
OECD Total Oil |
|
|
||||
68 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
66 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
64 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,900 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,700 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,600 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
56 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Mar |
May |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
Jan |
Mar |
May |
Jul |
Sep |
Nov |
Jan |
|
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
Range 2014-2018 |
|
Avg 2014-2018 |
|||||||
|
2018 |
|
|
2019 |
|
|
2018 |
|
|
2019 |
|
|
1 Days of forw ard demand are based on average demand over the next three months
15 MARCH 2019 |
35 |