The approach varies by company, but thus far less than 1% of industry capital expenditures is going to non-core areas

For the group of companies analysed, aggregate annual capital expenditures for projects outside core oil and gas supply averaged under USD 2 billion since 2015, less than 1% of the total capital expenditures by these companies, though some companies have spent up to an average of 5%, and the total topped USD 2 billion for the first time in 2019. Including spending on gas-fired power capacity (for commercial sales), spending has averaged over USD 2 billion since 2015.

Capital expenditures by the oil and gas industry in renewables have picked up gradually over time, reflecting the increasing availability of attractive projects. The largest outlays have been made in solar PV, with some companies (e.g. Eni, Shell) developing projects directly and others (e.g. BP, Total) owning major stakes in subsidiaries. Offshore wind is another growth area (e.g. Equinor, Shell, CNOOC) and benefits from considerable synergies – 40% of the full lifetime costs of a standard offshore wind project have overlap with the offshore oil and gas sector (IEA, 2019).

Oil and gas companies also have a significant profile in CCUS investments, marked by recent commissioned projects involving

Chevron, CNPC, and Shell, and account for over 35% of overall CCUS capital expenditures, often backed by government funding (Section III). The cost challenge and business model complexity of CCUS have meant that relatively few large-scale facilities have been developed, though many oil and gas companies are involved in R&D, pilot project development and partnerships to advance applications. OGCI members recently announced a new initiative to spur large-scale CCUS investment at industrial hubs around the world.

Despite the affinity with company strengths, investment in low-carbon liquids and gases projects is relatively low, e.g. bio refineries, biogas processing and hydrogen production. This can largely be explained by challenging project economics. Most activity to date has come through R&D, though some players (e.g. Eni, Petrobras, Total) have developed commercial-scale plants.

M&A have provided the principal vehicle for diversification. Strategic investment associated with new energy areas accounted for around 5% of total M&A by these companies. Several large deals have shaped this picture, and acquisitions have been the primary means for oil and gas companies to enter consumer-facing fields such as electricity distribution (e.g. Total with Direct Energie), EV charging (e.g. BP with

Chargemaster) and distributed battery storage (e.g. Shell with Sonnen).

Corporate venture capital activity, which represents a smaller outlay, but signals potential future growth areas, has risen in recent years, with a concentration in start-up investments for electric mobility, digital technologies and renewables. Many oil and gas companies also have large R&D activities in clean energy technologies – although R&D spending by oil and gas companies has not risen significantly as a share of revenue in recent years (IEA, 2019).

Looking ahead, a number of companies have announced plans to step up their spending in new energy areas in the coming years. Total, for example, has set an aim of 7 GW of renewables worldwide by 2025. Shell plans to spend nearly 10% of its capital expenditures on power by 2025 while Equinor sees itself devoting 15-20% of capital expenditures towards new energy solutions by 2030.

This section discusses the way that the outlook for oil and natural gas could be affected by an accelerated pace of energy transitions. There is a huge range of possible futures depending, for example, on the pace of technological innovation, the ambition of energy policies, market dynamics, societal trends and many other factors. The analysis refers to two scenarios included in the IEA WEO, but focuses mainly on the SDS and some sensitivity cases around this Scenario.

The SDS charts a pathway for the global energy sector fully aligned with the Paris Agreement by holding the rise in global temperatures to “well below 2°C … and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5°C”. This requires rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system.

The world is not on track to meet this Scenario. The IEA’s assessment, based on the policies in place today as well as those that have been announced (the STEPS), is that the momentum behind clean energy transitions is not enough to offset the effects of an expanding global economy and growing population. The STEPS does not see a peak in global energy-related CO2 emissions by 2040 – obviously far from the early peak and rapid subsequent decline in emissions targeted by the

Paris Agreement.

This disparity between the direction in which the world appears to be heading, on the one hand, and the wealth of scientific evidence highlighting the need for ever-more-rapid cuts in GHG emissions, on the other, is a crucial fault line in global energy.

The projections in the STEPS suggest that, in the absence of more concerted policy action, demand for oil and (especially) gas would continue to grow to 2040, while coal demand would remain where it is today.

However, the emissions trends in the STEPS would imply a 50% probability of a 2.7°C stabilisation (or a 66% chance of limiting warming to 3.2°C) – not nearly enough to avoid severe effects from climate change.

Something has to give, and the pressure to act more forcefully on emissions is growing, visible in a groundswell of opinion in many countries in favour of aligning policy and investment decisions with a low-emissions future. This includes an increasing number of national and corporate commitments to net-zero emissions, typically by mid-century. In some sectors, notably electricity, this is enabled by everlower costs of some key renewable technologies.

The SDS provides a way to explore the consequences of these types of rapid transitions across the energy sector as a whole. While emissions reductions are central to its design, it is not solely a climate scenario. It reflects a broader range of imperatives facing policy makers by also meeting objectives related to universal energy access and cleaner air, while retaining a strong focus on energy security and affordability.

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Gt CO

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20

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Energy-related CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions reductions by measure in the SDS

Current trends

Stated Policies Scenario

Sustainable Development Scenario