JPM_Europe Year Ahead 2019_watermark
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Mislav Matejka, CFA |
Europe Equity Research |
(44-20) 7134-9741 |
03 December 2018 |
mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com |
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Table 29: Eurozone domestic recovery - JPDEEZDR
|
|
|
W. Europe |
Name |
Ticker |
Sector |
Exposure |
RYANAIR |
RYA ID |
INDUSTRIALS |
100% |
MEDIASET |
MS IM |
COM. SERVICES |
100% |
GECINA SA |
GFC FP |
FINANCIALS |
100% |
CAIXABANK |
CABK SM |
FINANCIALS |
100% |
KLEPIERRE |
LI FP |
REAL ESTATE |
100% |
MEDIASET ESPANA |
TL5 SM |
COM. SERVICES |
99% |
EIFFAGE |
FGR FP |
INDUSTRIALS |
98% |
AGEAS |
AGS BB |
FINANCIALS |
97% |
ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI |
G IM |
FINANCIALS |
95% |
INTESA SANPAOLO |
ISP IM |
FINANCIALS |
94% |
NN GROUP |
NN NA |
FINANCIALS |
91% |
PROSIEBENSAT |
PSM GY |
COM. SERVICES |
91% |
UNICREDIT |
UCG IM |
FINANCIALS |
80% |
TELECOM ITALIA |
TIT IM |
COM. SERVICES |
77% |
VINCI |
DG FP |
INDUSTRIALS |
76% |
BNP PARIBAS |
BNP FP |
FINANCIALS |
73% |
PEUGEOT |
UG FP |
DISCRETIONARY |
73% |
RENAULT |
RNO FP |
DISCRETIONARY |
73% |
OUTOKUMPU |
OUT1V FH |
MATERIALS |
69% |
NOKIAN RENKAAT |
NRE1V FH |
DISCRETIONARY |
68% |
PRYSMIAN |
PRY IM |
INDUSTRIALS |
67% |
KBC GROUP |
KBC BB |
FINANCIALS |
66% |
VOESTALPINE |
VOE AV |
MATERIALS |
66% |
SOCIETE GENERALE |
GLE FP |
FINANCIALS |
66% |
ALLIANZ |
ALV GR |
FINANCIALS |
66% |
SUEZ |
SEV FP |
UTILITIES |
66% |
SAINT GOBAIN |
SGO FP |
INDUSTRIALS |
66% |
CARREFOUR |
CA FP |
STAPLES |
65% |
DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA |
LHA GR |
INDUSTRIALS |
62% |
HUGO BOSS |
BOSS GR |
DISCRETIONARY |
62% |
INDITEX |
ITX SM |
DISCRETIONARY |
61% |
DEUTSCHE POST |
DPW GR |
INDUSTRIALS |
60% |
BCP |
BCP PL |
FINANCIALS |
59% |
H&M |
HMB SS |
DISCRETIONARY |
59% |
HEINEKEN |
HEIA NA |
STAPLES |
57% |
VEOLIA ENV. |
VIE FP |
UTILITIES |
55% |
REXEL |
RXL FP |
INDUSTRIALS |
53% |
SIEMENS |
SIE GR |
INDUSTRIALS |
52% |
CRH |
CRH ID |
MATERIALS |
50% |
AIR FRANCE |
AF FP |
INDUSTRIALS |
47% |
LEGRAND |
LR FP |
INDUSTRIALS |
45% |
CAPGEMINI |
CAP FP |
IT |
34% |
Source: J P. Morgan
Domestic names on the other hand are geared to domestic activity and remain susceptible to political risks.
5) Winners and Losers of rising oil price:
Table 30: JPM oil price forecasts
|
Current |
1Q19 |
2Q19 |
3Q19 |
4Q19 |
Brent - end of period |
59.7 |
71.3 |
74.3 |
73.3 |
71.3 |
WTI - end of period |
51.5 |
63.0 |
68.0 |
68.3 |
66.3 |
Source: J.P. Morgan Commodity Research
Our Commodity strategists expect oil prices to be higher next year, forecasting Brent in 70-75$ range.
Table 31: JPM basket of the beneficiaries of rising oil price - JPDEOILW
|
|
|
Correlation |
Company |
Ticker |
Sector |
to Oil |
BHP GROUP |
BHP LN |
MATERIALS |
75% |
WEIR GROUP |
WEIR LN |
INDUSTRIALS |
66% |
ARCELORMITTAL |
MT NA |
MATERIALS |
65% |
ANGLO AMERICAN |
AAL LN |
MATERIALS |
62% |
EQUINOR |
EQNR NO |
ENERGY |
61% |
RIO TINTO |
RIO LN |
MATERIALS |
60% |
REPSOL YPF |
REP SM |
ENERGY |
59% |
STANDARD CHARTERED |
STAN LN |
FINANCIALS |
59% |
BP |
BP/ LN |
ENERGY |
57% |
ENI |
ENI IM |
ENERGY |
56% |
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B |
RDSA LN |
ENERGY |
55% |
TENARIS |
TEN IM |
ENERGY |
55% |
DSM KONINKLIJKE |
DSM NA |
MATERIALS |
54% |
GLENCORE |
GLEN LN |
MATERIALS |
52% |
GALP ENERGIA SGPS |
GALP PL |
ENERGY |
51% |
SMITHS GROUP |
SMIN LN |
INDUSTRIALS |
47% |
RAIFFEISEN BANK INTL. |
RBI AV |
FINANCIALS |
45% |
TOTAL |
FP FP |
ENERGY |
44% |
VOESTALPINE |
VOE AV |
MATERIALS |
43% |
ANTOFAGASTA |
ANTO LN |
MATERIALS |
42% |
SANDVIK |
SAND SS |
INDUSTRIALS |
42% |
SIKA |
SIKA SW |
MATERIALS |
42% |
BARRY CALLEBAUT |
BARN SW |
STAPLES |
41% |
TESCO |
TSCO LN |
STAPLES |
40% |
BASF (XET) |
BAS GR |
MATERIALS |
39% |
PORSCHE AML.HLDG. (XET) |
PAH3 GR |
DISCRETIONARY |
39% |
LANXESS (XET) |
LXS GR |
MATERIALS |
39% |
SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC |
SU FP |
INDUSTRIALS |
38% |
UMICORE |
UMI BB |
MATERIALS |
38% |
FORTUM |
FORTUM FH |
UTILITIES |
38% |
ARKEMA |
AKE FP |
MATERIALS |
37% |
METSO |
METSO FH |
INDUSTRIALS |
37% |
KERING |
KER FP |
DISCRETIONARY |
35% |
WOOD GROUP (JOHN) |
WG/ LN |
ENERGY |
35% |
RWE (XET) |
RWE GR |
UTILITIES |
34% |
VOLKSWAGEN PREF. (XET) |
VOW GR |
DISCRETIONARY |
33% |
ABB LTD N |
ABBN SW |
INDUSTRIALS |
33% |
AKER BP |
AKERBP NO |
ENERGY |
33% |
ALFA LAVAL |
ALFA SS |
INDUSTRIALS |
32% |
THE SWATCH GROUP |
UHR SW |
DISCRETIONARY |
32% |
Source: J.P. Morgan
If the JPM forecast of firmer oil prices materializes, this could help stocks that are most positively correlated to oil prices.
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