- •Preface
- •Contents
- •Geography
- •Demographics
- •Short-Lived Independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan Followed by Soviet Domination
- •End of the Soviet Era
- •The Rise of Nationalism
- •Declarations of Independence
- •Introduction
- •Khojaly Massacre
- •Post War Military Actions
- •Weapons Purchases
- •Conclusion
- •Armenia
- •Azerbaijan
- •Nagorno-Karabakh
- •Conclusion
- •Introduction
- •Armenia
- •Azerbaijan
- •Post-petroleum Azerbaijan
- •Conclusion
- •Diplomatic Maneuvers
- •The Story of Section 907
- •The Peace Process
- •Conclusion
- •6 Final Thoughts
- •Index
Russia‘s Interventions in
Ethnic Conflicts
The Case of Armenia
and Azerbaijan
James J. Coyle
Russia’s Interventions in Ethnic Conflicts
James J. Coyle
Russia’s Interventions
in Ethnic Conflicts
The Case of Armenia and Azerbaijan
James J. Coyle
Newport Beach, CA, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-59572-2 ISBN 978-3-030-59573-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59573-9
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Preface
In 2018, I published a book entitled Russia’s Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts.1 The thesis of the book was that Russia has used a ju-jitsu foreign policy to project power and influence far beyond its geopolitical weight. With the exception of its nuclear arsenal and landmass, Russia is a mid-level power. Politically, its system is run by a group of oligarchs led by the former KGB Colonel Vladimir Putin—not a system that most people in the world would want to emulate. The country’s conventional military armaments and tactics are/were far outclassed by those of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as evidenced by the ease in which Western forces triumphed over countries that follow Russian military doctrine and fight with Russian armaments. The population of 145 million is less than half that of the United States, and the GDP of its natural resource extractive economy is only on par with Italy.
Despite these drawbacks, Russian diplomatic prestige is as high as it ever has been because of three factors: its potential peer competitors are in political or economic disarray; it has used its energy policy to make Europe, including Turkey, dependent on its good graces; and, it has skillfully manipulated ethnic unrest on its borders to grant itself an overlarge role in maintaining the region’s peace.
1 Coyle, James J. Russia’s Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018).
v
vi PREFACE
It is this third topic to which most of Border Wars dedicated itself. Looking at conflicts in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, I discerned a pattern of Russian support for ethnic minorities, the arming of these minorities’ militant groups, encouraging them directly or indirectly to revolt against the internationally-recognized central government, offering to mediate a peace conference, and ensuring that the conference never creates a workable peace plan. Russia then becomes indispensable: the conflict enters a “frozen” state (although various levels of combat still continue) in which Russia controls the level of violence. This is most obvious with the War in Ukraine between the government in Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists in the East.
After Border Wars was published, many individuals asked for additional information on the four conflicts. As the original book was already over 270 pages in length, I decided not to expand the text further but to write four books: one on each of the frozen conflicts. I decided to tackle the four alphabetically, and so this volume (Armenia and Azerbaijan) is the first in a hoped-for series. The book consists of six chapters: one on the roots of the conflict, and subsequent chapters describing it through military, political, economic, and diplomatic lenses. There is a final chapter with analytic conclusions. Modern conflicts, particularly frozen conflicts, do not rely on a single element of power, but rather rely on multiple instruments. These conflicts may be limited in scope, but they are full spectrum conflicts for the societies affected.
I hope you, the reader, will enjoy reading an in-depth discussion of a conflict in an area little known to American or European audiences.
Newport Beach, USA |
James J. Coyle, Ph.D. |
Contents
1 Roots of the Conflict |
1 |
Geography |
1 |
Demographics |
2 |
Short-Lived Independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan |
|
Followed by Soviet Domination |
6 |
End of the Soviet Era |
10 |
Sumgait |
13 |
The Rise of Nationalism |
19 |
Black January |
24 |
Declarations of Independence |
30 |
2 The Military Face of a Frozen Conflict |
33 |
Introduction |
33 |
Khojaly Massacre |
35 |
Hot War |
41 |
Post War Military Actions |
47 |
2020 |
58 |
Weapons Purchases |
59 |
Conclusion |
64 |
3 The Politics of Frozen Conflict |
65 |
Armenia |
65 |
Azerbaijan |
80 |
vii
viii |
CONTENTS |
|
|
Nagorno-Karabakh |
86 |
|
Conclusion |
90 |
4 The Economics of Frozen Conflict |
91 |
|
|
Introduction |
91 |
|
Armenia |
92 |
|
Economic Ties Between Armenia and Iran |
101 |
|
Armenia-China |
104 |
|
Azerbaijan |
105 |
|
Post-petroleum Azerbaijan |
111 |
|
Conclusion |
114 |
5 Diplomacy Surrounding Frozen Conflict |
115 |
|
|
Diplomatic Maneuvers |
115 |
|
The Story of Section 907 |
126 |
|
The Peace Process |
132 |
|
Conclusion |
164 |
6 |
Final Thoughts |
165 |
Index |
169 |
Armenia (Source US Government Printing Office)
Azerbaijan (Source US Government Printing Office)