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Russia‘s Interventions in

Ethnic Conflicts

The Case of Armenia

and Azerbaijan

James J. Coyle

Russia’s Interventions in Ethnic Conflicts

James J. Coyle

Russia’s Interventions

in Ethnic Conflicts

The Case of Armenia and Azerbaijan

James J. Coyle

Newport Beach, CA, USA

ISBN 978-3-030-59572-2 ISBN 978-3-030-59573-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59573-9

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.

The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.

The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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Preface

In 2018, I published a book entitled Russia’s Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts.1 The thesis of the book was that Russia has used a ju-jitsu foreign policy to project power and influence far beyond its geopolitical weight. With the exception of its nuclear arsenal and landmass, Russia is a mid-level power. Politically, its system is run by a group of oligarchs led by the former KGB Colonel Vladimir Putin—not a system that most people in the world would want to emulate. The country’s conventional military armaments and tactics are/were far outclassed by those of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as evidenced by the ease in which Western forces triumphed over countries that follow Russian military doctrine and fight with Russian armaments. The population of 145 million is less than half that of the United States, and the GDP of its natural resource extractive economy is only on par with Italy.

Despite these drawbacks, Russian diplomatic prestige is as high as it ever has been because of three factors: its potential peer competitors are in political or economic disarray; it has used its energy policy to make Europe, including Turkey, dependent on its good graces; and, it has skillfully manipulated ethnic unrest on its borders to grant itself an overlarge role in maintaining the region’s peace.

1 Coyle, James J. Russia’s Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018).

v

vi PREFACE

It is this third topic to which most of Border Wars dedicated itself. Looking at conflicts in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, I discerned a pattern of Russian support for ethnic minorities, the arming of these minorities’ militant groups, encouraging them directly or indirectly to revolt against the internationally-recognized central government, offering to mediate a peace conference, and ensuring that the conference never creates a workable peace plan. Russia then becomes indispensable: the conflict enters a “frozen” state (although various levels of combat still continue) in which Russia controls the level of violence. This is most obvious with the War in Ukraine between the government in Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists in the East.

After Border Wars was published, many individuals asked for additional information on the four conflicts. As the original book was already over 270 pages in length, I decided not to expand the text further but to write four books: one on each of the frozen conflicts. I decided to tackle the four alphabetically, and so this volume (Armenia and Azerbaijan) is the first in a hoped-for series. The book consists of six chapters: one on the roots of the conflict, and subsequent chapters describing it through military, political, economic, and diplomatic lenses. There is a final chapter with analytic conclusions. Modern conflicts, particularly frozen conflicts, do not rely on a single element of power, but rather rely on multiple instruments. These conflicts may be limited in scope, but they are full spectrum conflicts for the societies affected.

I hope you, the reader, will enjoy reading an in-depth discussion of a conflict in an area little known to American or European audiences.

Newport Beach, USA

James J. Coyle, Ph.D.

Contents

1 Roots of the Conflict

1

Geography

1

Demographics

2

Short-Lived Independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan

 

Followed by Soviet Domination

6

End of the Soviet Era

10

Sumgait

13

The Rise of Nationalism

19

Black January

24

Declarations of Independence

30

2 The Military Face of a Frozen Conflict

33

Introduction

33

Khojaly Massacre

35

Hot War

41

Post War Military Actions

47

2020

58

Weapons Purchases

59

Conclusion

64

3 The Politics of Frozen Conflict

65

Armenia

65

Azerbaijan

80

vii

viii

CONTENTS

 

 

Nagorno-Karabakh

86

 

Conclusion

90

4 The Economics of Frozen Conflict

91

 

Introduction

91

 

Armenia

92

 

Economic Ties Between Armenia and Iran

101

 

Armenia-China

104

 

Azerbaijan

105

 

Post-petroleum Azerbaijan

111

 

Conclusion

114

5 Diplomacy Surrounding Frozen Conflict

115

 

Diplomatic Maneuvers

115

 

The Story of Section 907

126

 

The Peace Process

132

 

Conclusion

164

6

Final Thoughts

165

Index

169

Armenia (Source US Government Printing Office)

Azerbaijan (Source US Government Printing Office)